Member Info for CrustyPete

Two points to make CP; firstly I think it unlikely that a bank will loan Solo $15 million when that is equivalent to their current market cap. Secondly you say "$15 million spend to get $12 million a year gross earnings from 2020" - and as I have said before I am certain that before the income starts flowing in Q1 2020 the "partners" will have spent a lot more than $60 million - I am expecting at least one and maybe more additional drills before that time.

The only counter to my suggestion below is that there is the chance that after running seismics over Kiliwani South and nearshore Nyuni it might be nearshore Nyuni that seems to best and most commercially viable option. Good news if so as we own 93% of Nyuni and only 57% of Kilwani. Farming out the drill to a third party for a share of income is neutral in either event - the only increased cost of Nyuni above Kiliwani is likely to be the cost of connection of the resultant well to SS GPP. We could afford to give far more of the income away if we farmed-out the drill for Nyuni rather than Kiliwani.

I am not too sure that I agree on the KN1 and KS1 PP, they have a total estimated gas reservoir of only circa 70 BCF based on current knowledge a mere fraction of our current 25% share of Ntorya. It is surely Nyuni that will add most to gas reserve figures and future income; the issues being how much of it will we be able to hang on to and how far into the future will we wait for any sort of monetisation....? Not much (25%) and far too long (5 - 7 years plus) is my fear.

Sorry PP, that last pots was aimed at you not CP....

And yes I fuly agree that the 1.87 TCF figure may well rise during that 30 lifetime; priccipally in connection with the Triassic and Jurassic levels. I do not expect much of an increase from the Cretaceous levels that we now know quite a lot about and now have had a CPR and new basin model concluded; so rises here I would expect to be incremental and not revolutionary....

I am not so sure about that CP; the Kilwani GSA has the ability to increases the price along with world Gas Price index. Moreover I do not think that there will be just one GSA to cover the whole 30 period of production; I suspect that, just as an example, NT1, 2 & C1 might get a GSA for their expected lifetime at a price to reflect the pipeline costs. Whereas, say, NT6, 7 & 8 would have a separate, alternatively priced GSA to reflect their different lifetime, "route to market", and infrastructure costs....

Only a thought.

And even if it is correct do remember that figure would be spread over 30 or so years (average circa $20 million pa) and won't start until sometime in 2020.... As there is no guarantee that the $3.27 figure, or it's equivalent, will keep pace with inflation or interest, so whatever the actual figure it should be hugely discounted for the "time value of money".

CP, I would very much question your assumption "@ a value of around $3.27 per MCF" as the IO commercialisation study, if it assumed a figure of $3.27 per MCF, would not have anticipated that the "partners" would be funding the pipeline..... That $3.27 per MCF would only have been the assumed figure if the TPDC were buying the gas "at wellhead"; as the "partners" will be funding the construction of the pipeline that surely would not be the case and the $3.27 figure will be higher....?

Well ignoring the "related party" whose opinion in the matter might be a little biased, that leaves only Majedie who have 9.9% and ARGO who own circa 2.4% shares as a result of a loan agreement. Hardly a ringing endorsement methinks. Neither Majedie (UCIT rules) nor ARA can buy more (without triggering a bid). Maybe we ought to have taken out another loan with ARGO to stimulate a buying spree.....? ;0)

" Let's just hope he knows what he's doing on everything else."

There is very little, if any, material evidence of that - unless persuading the rest of the BoD to provide him with a fantastical pay rise counts? He managed to sell that quite well - just as well it wasn't performance related; he would have struggled with that one..... ;0)

Awaiting sign-off of half yearly results methinks.....

Well TB now they have nothing left to keep them occupied.

Or maybe now it is that now they have sold off shareholders principle asset they now recognise that cannot rely on Ruvuma and that they have to put some effort into promoting the share price like all the other small "Oileys" have to...

;0)

Not if you are willing to hold medium term I would agree :0)

BTW Drewky please check your "inbox".

NO Drewky - I actually want to know where he said this - I genuinely am interested in hearing it.... Are you now saying he didn't say that?

Okay apologies TB and Drewky. But no matter that observation was only a secondary one and my comments still hold; if, and I mean IF, we were only getting $10 -12 million from 40 MMscf/d AEX might still have the need for a placing to drill (likely to be farmed - out) or more pertinently "connect" Kiliwani South to Songo Songo GPP.....

Must go to bed, Good night all.

Anyway boys and girls I have to be driving to Exeter tomorrow at about 7:00 am so, firstly I need to get to bed and secondly I am unlikely to spend much, if any time on here until I get back home tomorrow evening (late).

I have no hidden agenda Drewky I just want to read or listen to JB discuss the likelihood of there being 3 - 4 wells being drilled in 2019....?

Oh and by the way you mentioned earlier that JB's quote below explains and reinforces TB's earlier statement. Ignoring the comments that you originally used to connect the two I do not personally believe that these two statements are necessarily connected. JB's statement clearly speaks of a situation beyond EPS and cashflow whereas I seem to remember that TB's statement was referring to anytime frame post EGM. Now, if AEX want to do any meaningful work on Kilwani and / or Nyuni between now and EPS (and maybe beyond, dependent on income levels) they may well choose to do a placing.... But whether our "cornerstone investor" will allow it is another thing entirely. So it is less about (post EPS) cash flow and all about pre EPS ambition and / or about diluting the Zubairs interest, methinks.

"Quite simple Pete Tarry wrote it. "now near impossible that we will do a placing". Sunday 5/8/18 23:43 TarryB"

"Any further spending will be self generated" CEO Jay B and he was BTW talking of spending over and above the $140m by which time they expect to be generating $25 to $35m Cash /annum

So Drewky just as a matter of information where is it that JB says "3 to 4 drill program for 2019" CEO Jay B see above.

I only ask as when I mentioned something similar a week or two ago it was "shouted down" by those that could not conceive that we may end up spending all of the $35 million (or at least a lot more than $15 m) on development before the EPS was completed and providing an income. I personally welcome it but others don't seem to share my enthusiasm.

And to your question of earlier I really do not care what you put on your list; though why you feel it relevant to post opinions from one particular member of the BB is quite beyond me - why not start to quote evryone?! My only beef is that you have been claiming them as fact or as management statements when quite obviously they are not - and, when I could last be bothered to read them, there were a number still there.

So please give me the reference for that JB quote or interview; I would like to hear it "officially".

Perhaps willow because no-one had confidence in the project whilst AEX were the Operator? Least of all the TPDC so it seems; at least they could not seem to get TDPC to sign off on KN1 work programme, License extensions or, maybe, the Development License and without these the chance of getting a loan or farm-out were slim at best (from anyone but the Zubairs of course) - with these in place (which will all be before C1 drill), with the Zubairs as the Operator and the all necessary funding in place for the other 75% they should have a far better chance methinks....

willow those trades you refer to cannot be bed and ISA's - you cannot get 50K into an ISA; they will be "back to back" trades; sale and repurchase trades most likely, someone "rolling over" two open T25 trades or similar.....

So how are those quotes attributed to TarryB " Everything in this list is factually correct and has been published or stated verbally by management with regards to time schedules." ? So now they are not part of the list!? They are not on the list then?! So now you are arguing what is and what isn't a "list".....

Jesus, the mind just boggles. As I said earlier Drewky you just keep trotting it out and I will just keep highlighting the inconsistencies....

Oh and by the way if I were you I would publish the list every 10 minutes at least - only 10 - 12 times a day obviously isn't cutting it....

Anyway I am off out for the evening and have to get ready. GLA bye for now.