Member Info for CrustyPete

Well if the nonsense that passes for content on this BB of late is designed to move the SP in either direction it will certainly prove counter-productive and effort as the only likely outcome is to stop people ever coming here to read anything; it is childish, pointless and tiresome.....

I notice that the early trade volumes and sizes are unusually high today - a noticeable volume of largish trades......

And by the way ladies and gents it is bad enough watching the sp slide on a regular basis without having to read the constant ******** and back biting from a few on this BB. Can we have a truce here please? If not, I will very soon become an ex-poster....

Post away Drewky, post away :0)

Unfortunately I think it is probably a pointless exercise as I suspect no-one bothers to read it anymore.... :0(

I don't think JB needs any help from Neil Ritson OG. AEX have singularly failed to deliver one single positive operational development since NT2 drill (and that was, by most people's assessment a disappointment) and now they are no longer the operators of Ntorya I think we can confidently expect them to do nothing for another 18 months not least because until the EPS starts to pay out there is little likelihood that there is enough in the coffers to fund anything......

KN1 remediation excepted - and that requires TPDC sign off.

Only joking :0)

Awaiting the year end figures I would suggest and, maybe to go alongside that, resolution of the outstanding TPDC "royalty" fiasco. Without resolution our half year figures will look pretty bleak methinks.... $zero or even negative values in cash and receivables :0(

I hope they do not have the gall to do that GL. What more of an admission do they need to prove that it is the Zub's that "wear the trousers"......

And to make it clear Dunder he only held the referendum in the first place to placate the small but disproportionately influential eurosceptic proportion of his own party.... IOM of course

Dunder I am not commenting on the rights and wrongs of the outcome, simply drawing parralels between the reasons for his having the referendum in the first place and his subsequent departure in disgrace..... and as for your "shagged up the arse" description of the deal he negotiated? Yet another simile eh?

But TB how could his departure be seen as a positive unless JB were to have highlighted the fact that his many years of dedication to the interests of ALL shareholders had in fact been a total disaster....?!

In my opinion, much like Drewky, I think this is really a non event; it had been flagged at the AGM and there is little if anything that could have been done to flower this up. I am firmly of CP's view expressed earlier - it is reminiscent of David Cameron's departure after Brexit, sloping off with his tail between his legs having sold the country out to a small but influential proportion of his party.....

Now if JB had been retiring, well that would have been a different kettle of fish! ;0)

Kiliwani is NOT an appropriate benchmark to judge the life of a well and certainly not the Ntorya wells..... AEX drilled a compartment that has very slow recharge at Kiliwani. Bottom line, they messed it up. Moreover the original well was only anticipated to have circa 28 BCF and a lifespan of circa 5 years.... the Ntorya reservoirs are a totally different scale and, if you were to bother to look at the recent Aminex presentation is anticipated to last circa 30 years.

And how far back are you going with that for goodness sake ?? - I have certainly not suggested that they have had anything close to $9 million since the EOY results were issued which was in April for goodness sake! The estimation of approaching $9 million was for the year end figure which was since proven optimistic. However I have not made any predictions of that kind since the actual figures have been released..... Are you suggesting that since the actual figure of $6 million was broadcast I have been suggesting that it is going up?!? Nonsense.

If so show me where I said that because I refute it 100%.

I wouldn't say way over valued - I will stick with my original 5p figure i.e. circa 150 million. I also think that if we are pulling $35 million a year from Ntorya and KN1 is producing at 8 MMscf/d 200 million would be a low figure....

Depends what you were standing for Dunder?!? MP? Monster Raving Loony Party? You would get my vote every time, lol! ;0)

Assuming a 40 MMscf/d day ($12 million annual income) and no increase in prospective resources then I wouldn't argue too much with 200 million. Though if that annual income were $35 million and the Lower Triassic and Jurassic levels were to throw up a significant increase in GIIP and maybe even Oil then all bets are off - you could look to more than double that figure.

Though that is a lot of if's and but's though eh? ;0)

Moreover if we are circa 2p at the time of the C1 spud there is every prospect that we could exceed 250 million on that "spike".

I think that MC figure will be heavily influenced by whether and when we are producing incomes of $10-12 million or $30 - 35 million and whether and to what extent the lower Jurassic and Triassic levels prove to be the golden goose.... Without these adding significantly to the GIIP figures, future flows and income there is little potential upside to the figures we already belive Ntorya is likely to yield and yet there is downside risk - as Kiliwani ably demonstrates.

No Apache I wasn't; I said that as of Dec 31st 2017 Aminex had circa $6 million of cash and cash receivables but that due to the costs of such things as the CPR, IO Commercial study and 6 months of a $2 million payroll this figure is likely to have been seriously eroded since.

Now I know it's difficult for someone with such a tiny concentration span but just pay attention Apache..... ;0)

Dunder based on our current situation it would be hard to suggest that the MC is not currently overvalued. No License for Ruvuma, no income from Kiliwani, no cash? (half year results will inform the actual situation) and without a Farm-out no obvious way of moving forward. Based on these facts is could be argued that the company is worth next to nothing.

However, thankfully the sp is not based on our current situation, it is to a large extent based on future prospects and expectations. It is supposed that the Farm-Out is a formality and will relieve the log jam and allow the Ntorya development to proceed at pace. Then in quick succession we should see (in no particular order) KN1 remediation (to 7/8 MMscf/d), C1 spud, NT1&2 workover, pipeline build, and in early 2020 EPS at no less than 40 MMscf/d.... etc etc. With the other more speculative prospects of Oil shows, huge flow rates at C1 etc

Now if we were currently in Q1 2020 and all of the above had happened I think we would have an sp considerably above the current one (5p+) and possibly more dependent on drill results. However the proof of this pudding is still 16 -18 months away and there is a lot that can happen within that extended timeframe. Yet, I believe, a lot of these future events are already in the price. To what extent exactly, I have my own opinion on but I will keep it to myself.

I do think JB's claims regarding II's were ill-judged and I think PI's viewed them with considerable scepticism; though I do not think that this is the reason that PI's have been selling. More the fact that they see no great reason to be holding them between now and C1 spud and they have learned the hard way that, when you are an Aminex shareholder, no news certainly isn't good news... and beyond the EGM what news is there likely to be that will significantly affect the sp until KN1 remediation and C1 spud?

As for Malcy, whilst he was "positive" it certainly wasn't without reservation, saying that shareholders will "eventually extract value" and that he remains a "long term" supporter.That was hardly likely to get the hoards battering down the doors of the AEX MM's in the short term was it?

All future expenses are covered up to a max of $35 million; once that $35 has been spent or "reimbursed" then we will have exposure for ongoing funding and risk to the full extent of our 25% interest....

Is that what you meant Nelson?

CP, if they don't get the Development License they won't be investing a shed load of cash; they will have nothing to spend the money on.... ;0)

I expect the Development License to go through between the EGM in September and contract closure in November. Without Development License approval there is the risk that the Farm-Out conclusion will drag on until it goes through.

I would broadly agree with your analysis TB except for your assertion that "If CH1 is a duster (extremely unlikely) that would be a huge issue". Yes it is highly unlikely that C1 will be a duster, although there is always a risk of a technical failure (just think NT2....) particularly when drilling "unknown territory" like the lower Triassic and Jurassic levels..... But even if so I do not think this would be a catastrophe as NT1 and NT2 with a bit of reworking are likely as not to be sufficient to get us to 40 MMscf/d. Yes we would have wasted the cost of the drill but that is only now 25% of the total expense and no more than $5 million, which from a total "kitty" of $35 million is not a disaster and would be pretty quickly replaced by income from the 40 MMscf/d.

The point is, I suppose that a C1 failure would simply put the project back 6 - 12 months whilst they prepared the ground for NT4? It would also compromise any idea of us getting even close to $35 million annual income anytime during 2020 methinks.

The company simply need to announce a date for the EGM that gives all shareholders at least 14 days notice (not including the day that the notice is issued nor the date of the EGM).....

The Company's Half Year results (to 30th June) are due out no later than the end of September but often are released sooner (end of August). I suspect that they will wait for these figures to be "signed off" before announcing the EGM date as they are pertinent to any presentation that the Company chooses to produce for that EGM.