Member Info for CrustyPete

Yes P0werplay, I have just explained "downside protection" vs "upside possibility"..... Our floor may now be higher but our peak is much lower. Or, at least, will be until after we start to earn from that $40 - 140 million income....

Moreover will we still be at 2.1p after the EGM....? I can only hope so.

Oh and one more thing P0werplay; whatever the possible upside, $40 million was a derisory sum and hamstrings us until EPS gives us cash flow to progress in other areas.

I am not arguing otherwise P0werplay and whilst this farm-out has given us some considerable "downside" protection it has, in my opinion, massively reduced the short - medium term upside potential. And as Leaflessclover quite rightly pointed out at the AGM most of us are "risk takers" - we didn't buy Aminex for "downside protection".

Moreover I see no reason why Aminex would have taken any longer than ARA to get to EPS - full field development yes but not EPS. After which, by the way, we were told FFD was "self funding" although that would have slowed down the drilling programme of course.... Now, ARA (APT) may have plans to drill more wells between C1 and EPS (and more quickly thereafter) which is something that AEX would never have been able to do and that would be a different story and a big positive with far greater flow rates in short order.

To my mind the reason that we have farmed out is not that ARA would get to EPS quicker than AEX but the fact that without the farm-out Aminex woud never have got to EPS at all !! TPDC would never have signed off on the Licenses, C1 drill or anything else. Why? Well you know my view, I have been there many times since last week....

Now that we have agreed terms for the farm-out we will see TPDC sign off on KN1"work over", License Extensions approved, Drill tender concluded, Spud date and 3d seismics begun - none of which would have happened without the farm-out. (All in my opinion of course)

Good news? Only if we learn from the reasons that we found ourselves in that position and don't repeat them for Nyuni and Kiliwani.....

Randomaxe, be careful what you wish for! You state "I'm tempted to sell up but hopefully we can get the numbers to vote no " - be under no illusion, if the Farm-Out is rejected the sp will tank....!! We could well see similar prices that we saw before ARA's 29.9% purchase.

Now I am not saying that is reason not to vote NO but beware if you think that voting "NO" will be positive - if you are only hanging on in the hope that a NO vote will give you a better exit price think again, it won't.....

I will still be voting NO.

Drewky, please explain your logic: If you were expecting 20+p on the assumption that Aminex were to have drilled C1 and reached EPS on their own how you can now foresee 15p when we only hold one third of our previous holding and are no longer the Operator...? Ignoring, of course, the unknowns concerning Oil and the Triassic and Jurassic possibilities etc

Very quickly TB what is happening with the aminex.slack.com. Did I understand you to need my email address? Did we find a mechanism to exchange addresses? I am happy for Drewky to send it to you....?

I am happy to support the initiative; just let me know how....

Oh and one other thing SirRobert I only said that I hadn't sold 90%.... ;0)

Not quite SirRobert, FWIW, and for sibajak's benefit, that isn't much, except where I have inadvertently omitted to do so I have this as a "Hold". As I said, whilst I would rather things had been a lot closer to the situation that the BoD had given us to expect, we are we we are; it's not a bad position albeit, personally disappointing.

And that is enough...

Oh and just as matter of record I have never suggested that those who have a genuine "beef" with AEX simply "b***er off" but never let the truth spoil a good story eh....?

Lol, sibajak, "I've had as much as I can take from you CP!" Oh you poor thing you :-(

Oh and I really do give two hoots about what your opinion is of me?? Fat chance, b***er off yourself!! :0)

You may have noticed that in my last post I had said "enough is enough" - but now I will continue with my "snide remarks" and to throw "my toys out of the pram" just to get up your nose. Well done darling....

I absolutely, 100%, agree with you Sambo....!!

But as you say "Of course AEX cannot admit this"...... we are used to "mushroom mode" Sambo are we not?

So we are where we are. This is as good as it gets but to accept that this deal is a fantastic outcome and the outcome that shareholders were given expect is just tantamount to self delusion. If swallowing JB's snake oil is the medicine people need that allows move on so be it.

But beware; don't be surprised when it happens again and again...... Will Chapter 2 & 3 be Nyuni and Kilwani?

Anyway, enough is enough. Bye bye for now.

Oh agreed BG but that is one hell of a trade off eh?! And certainly not the "plan" that we all bought into at the last AGM and when the EPS strategy was 1st announced...... So what changed?

And I really must get on now!

Just goes to show what a good snake oil salesman JB is eh?

I repeat: " What plan is that Drewky? The one that sees the BoD give up a possible $1,000 - 1,500 m of future income.... for consideration of only $40 m"

"just 15 million to get us to minimum 40MMcf/d. its getting better"

When for $45 million we could have funded it to EPS? And "self funding" thereafter? When, had we still been holding 75%, it would have earned us $30 - 36 million per annum.. So we have given up that potential income for just over one years earnings...?! Why would you do that, unless you had no choice....

Dear oh dear, you lot are easily satisfied. ;0)

Btw BG, thanks for that Mtarwa quote. My only reason for suggesting otherwise was a statement from JB some months ago which conflated Lindi with the Ruvuma PSA Exploration License. You are quite right, if the boundaries do not move the Mtarwa extension should allow us to retain Namisange. Time will tell.

Have to dash, GLA.

$15 million to EPS CP..... according to his LSE interview. So AEX sold out for the sake of $45 miilion capital. The project was "self funding" after that so we have been told for the last 14 months. As I said earlier (a little tongue in cheek) on the the AEX BB....

"What plan is that Drewky? The one that sees the BoD give up a possible $1,000 - 1,500 m of future income (@ $3 btw which could be a lot more as they are building the pipeline) for consideration of only $40 m and for the want of a maximum of $105 m of development capital; which by the way JB thinks will be no more than $60 m by the time they get to EPS .

Who's "plan" came together? The Zubair's, that who's; 1000+% ROCE now that's impressive :0)"

Now that the figures are there in "black and white" surely Solo can show the AEX BoD how to do it? And what about those pre-emption rights....?

Maybe we should all club together, offer the Solo BoD the money and see if we can trump the Zubairs?! ;0)

It was in the Ruvuma PSA: the Exploration Area (the License conceded) and not the Ruvuma PSA Appraisal area (the License expected to be extended)....

Anyway gents, back tomorrow when the sp will be at least 3p !! :0)

TB, I can 100% confirm that Namisange is in the former Ruvuma Exploration area that AEX have had to concede; so unless the Zubairs have managed to alter the previous boundaries Namisange will be in the "new" License and will be part of a new License tender......

Thanks Sambo, lets hope that JB's expectations are met then. I won't be banking on it :0)

Sorry TB that should have read 10 -20% . The answer is that the Plan A will cost peanuts and would need to be done anyway just to clear away the water that has infiltrated the well since it became dormant. It could be enough by itself but only 10-20% likelihood...

I am not aware of any Nyuni feedback no. And I am 99% sure that Namisange is in the Lindi Exploration area, which, if so, is a great disappointment as it has always been my belief that Namisange is the most likely site for commercial Oil recovery and we no longer have any interest in it. Will we ever get the chance to get involved in the new license tender process? I rather expect that the Zubairs have this taped.....

Sambo from the figures supplied by you and others (I haven't had chance to analyse the stuff myself and much of it appears to have been "off record") post EPS we should be receiving circa $12 million a year but will need to supply $9.5 million a year towards FFD? And even that is 18 months away. That wouldn't provide additional capacity for Kiliwani and Nyuni would it? Even if it did a drill in Kiliwani would be $20+ m...?

That said JB has always stated that any "nearshore" or "offshore" drilling would be "farmed-out" for a stake in future income. So if we can get the seismic analysis done there may be some capacity.

Now the salary bill issues are seemingly being addressed this is now the focus of my attention; getting answers from the BoD for this is now paramount. What is our strategy for onward development of these two assets? Timescales, funding, commercial modelling and more importantly the TPDC attitude.... If no longer hold their support and confidence we may as well pick up sticks and go elsewhere.

EPS is at least 18 months away, so no income in the intervening period but for the dribble from KN1 after the years end. Hence the only operational activity that AEX will be engaged in over that period is KN1 remediation? We won't be needing any staff then?!

If we cut the salary bill down, an approach JB seems to be aligned with, we should have (subject to half yearly accounts) a little spare for some Nyuni seismics or alternative surely?