Member Info for CrustyPete

Sorry TB, this is expected to be complete by the years end, TPDC notwithstanding....

TB, I spoke at some length to JB at the AGM about Kiliwani remediation and Leafless did last night and the "reports" were very similar.

There is a Plan A and a Plan B. Plan A involves using Foam Rods to eliminate the water that has built up in the well but this ploy would only have a 10 -12% chance of solving the issue by itself but, as it is very low cost, will be the first attempted strategy. After which and if necessary they will perforate deeper and maybe employ compression (compressor in the country). All of this is likely to take until the year's end but even then will result in an average daily flow rate of maybe 50% of the previous levels due to recharge issues.

All timescales are of course 100% dependent on the TPDC signing off on the work programme.

What plan is that Drewky? The one that sees the BoD give up a possible $1,000 - 1,500 m of future income (@ $3 btw which could be a lot more as they are building the pipeline) for consideration of only $40 m and for the want of a maximum of $105 m of development capital; which by the way JB thinks will be no more than $60 m by the time they get to EPS (so I am told). (Sibajak seems to have got that bit right)

Who's "plan" came together? The Zubair's, that who's; 1000+% ROCE now that's impressive :0)

Only joking Drewky :-)

Oh sorry forgot to ask. Any of you attendees that are on the Board

Looking forward did they give any indication of what, how and if and, if so, how they will fund the development Kiliwani and Nyuni?

Morning all,

I only have few minutes so to be brief - or as brief as I can !!

Thanks to Leafless, Tom and Sambo for attending and you comments and my mate Jon (who doesn't post) who took my seat ;0)

So one or two comments

BG: - 1. As I suspected (a few posts ago) there will be movement in headcount for AEX, some of their people will be moving to ARA. There will also be changes at head office.""

well i wonder what our anti BOD posters think of that?

Well that is just what we have been clamoring for and whilst the devil is in the detail this is evidently good news; so sibajak it seems that the people that run Aminex don't have any more of a clue how to run a company than I do ;0)

So just to point out that the ongoing plan for ARA to shoot seismics and then, hard on the heels, drill another well was exactly the same plan that Aminex outlined to the AGM attendees in 2016. It is just a pity that the plan is now not going to be executed by Aminex. But as Sambo himself says

" They simply don't have the power, money, people, experience etc. to make it happen. hence my belief that the farm out is just as much Tanz govt driven as AEX driven. "

This may well be the reality but, personally, I still cannot find myself being anything other than disappointed at this result. There has been no indication from the BoD that this was on the cards and certainly not their stated ambition; at the last AGM it was definitely their intention to do this independently.

And for those that still do not seem to understand the negative market reaction to this "deal" yes the figures do look extremely encouraging; indeed up to 140 MMscf/d (maybe more) for up to 30 years and AEX have farmed out 50% of that upside for $40 million...... Yes, this might have been an operational and commercial imperative but that is hardly a great deal. This presentation does a good job of making the sow's ear look like a silk purse but in truth it is still a sow's ear.

But it is a done deal and irreversible so - onwards and upwards :0)

Good luck all, must be off.

You may recall CP that Solo had to raise further capital last year to pay the increased costs of the NT2 drill and analysis which, only to that date, came in at $24 m. NT1 was less but then you have all the ancillary costs, License and renewal fees and the recent CPR, Commercial Study etc - and AEX's 75% would surely get to circa $50 million

Very quickly.

BG I believe you will find that Likonde is in the Exploration area that we have had to concede. Presumably for AEX to get back any of this now "new" license we will have to contribute towards additional Licensing costs?

CP the figure is difficult to isolate from other costs but would be approaching $50 million though I suggest any costs attributable to IO Commercial Study, RPS CPR, Development License Application legals etc have yet to be disclosed as they would likely fall in the H1 2018 accounting period.

Sorry, off line now for a good day or two.

GLA

Ha now I have heard everything - more often than not I have been criticised for being too pessimistic....

But yes, times have changed; at AEX at least - we are no longer the operator of our principle asset..... And as we have no income and little cash on the balance sheet I think that reducing our salary bill would be a very sensible strategy. Or is that not sensible when running a company....?

But sibajak, you obviously have far superior knowledge that leads you to believe otherwise. So be it, I bow to your superior conjecture.

And as operator they will also be responsible for collecting and distributing all revenue..... "short and curlies" comes to mind.

"I'm afraid I don't agree with one word of that and would add that it is pure conjecture"

And I suppose that your version of events is not pure conjecture??! Pot and kettle sibajak.....

""diversification outside of Tanzania, Nyuni development"
These are pipe dreams"

They certainly are now :0)

sibajak, needless to say you have totally missed the material point - or have at least chosen to....

irish there will be even less transparency now than there has ever been. But, of course now that JB and the team have nothing better to do he has time to attend the PI "pump and dump" events like the BoD's of SOU and others have for years ;0)

Sorry $35 million of course....

irish you suggest

"Now The Zubs will have a larger holding I expect to be better informed and to some extent managed and a regular news flow would be welcome."

Actually irishmouse as a Private company the Zubairs are under NO obligation to release any information at all and now they are operators will AEX shareholders ever get to hear anything? Will we ever see exactly what is being spent on Nyorya development - until our $135 million supposedly runs out and we are asked to stump up more that is?

But sibajak if we had negotiated less "carry" we may have got a lot more cash...? And with cash, a wider range of options; diversification outside of Tanzania, Nyuni & Kiliwani development? As it is we are hamstrung.

It could just as easily be argues that the figure of $105 ($140) is a grossly inflated figure that allows the BoD to concede the "operatorship" of Ruvuma without "losing face" and having to admit that, actually, the TPDC just have lost any confidence in the BoD to deliver on any operational projects. What would their excuse have been if the figure was not $105 million but $20 million (to get C1 drilled)? The reality, I fear, is that is was not about the money at all. It has just taken the BoD 14 months for the penny to drop....

Maybe the BoD negotiated the Farm-Out in order to engineer themselves a lower entry point...?!?

Fingers crossed indeed.

However just for your information AEX has previously presented to brokers (after the last AGM) and the effect was zero, MAX; furthermore tonight's presentation is not to Brokers but to private investors and so is unlikely to make any material difference.....

Great to see the sp rise though :-)

Not finding gas or not needed to drill? Add 50 MMscf/d is my guess (NT2 should have been 40 MMscf/d +) - bigger question is "demand"?

And yes $140 million is hard to justify. Unless as you say they decide to drill more than C1 before EPS up and running...?

Sorry have to go !!

Apache, I said I did not sell 90%... ;0)