Member Info for CrustyPete

Oh and BG, maybe because they can get to 40 MMscf/d simply with a re-working of NT1 and NT2 - they wouldn't need C1 to "come in"....

So I find myself with two minutes, so I thought I would pop in to say hello and what do I see?

So BG nothing that I have ever said on this or any other BB has ever been motivated by my own self interest; if you find that hard to believe it probably says more about you than it does about me.

So, the answer is NO I have not sold 90% of my holding; I simply said that to see who and how long it would be before some ignoramus with an axe to grind accused me of trying to manipulate the price to create a lower re-entry point. Only joking ;0)

In reality my thoughts seem to be similar to your own " I think Aminex came up against some harsh reality's, Ntorya is just too big and important to Tanzania, for the TPDC to have left operatorship with Aminex." The difference being that I was, and am, surprised and disappointed because the BoD have never given us any reason to think this. For the 14 months since the last AGM they have concealed the situation from shareholders.

That is now history and my concern is that all of the "harsh realities" that you quite rightly, in my view, refer too are all still present and I see no reason why these will change for those assets we still Hold as "Operator". Where will we find the capital to develope these? Or will we be forced into the same position by then TPDC and the Zub's?

So much for "License extensions and Development License before a Farm-Out" - I have to admit that I got that 100% wrong. The issue was the "operatorship" all along. Seeming lack of confidence from the TPDC in AEX's ability to develope the assets - and after NT2 and KN1 who can blame them? Do they still have sufficient confidence to support us with KN1 remediation , Kilwani South and Nyuni? Only time will tell...

Now sorry but I have to dash - back later in the week...

GLA

Drewky, as irishmouse asks "As we were in such a mess before the deal, no licence,no income and no money to do anything and this the only deal about, is it so bad."

There are two intrinsic questions implied in his query. The the deal that bad? And "Why were we in such a mess before - no license, no income and no money to do anything".

Because unless we get answers we are doomed to repeating the same mistakes and if I were looking to invest in Aminex I would want those answers.... without them we are at risk that no-one ever will.

GLA

The very last thing for now;

You say " It seems to me we have a genuine opportunity now to realise our dreams and I don't want negativity putting people off from buying into to that prospect."

You "don't want negativity putting people off..." so now you are the thought police then. You actually think it is appropriate to select only positive comments to post on the BoD so that any newbie coming to the BB will only see the "good" points about AEX and the BoD. A bit like Russian Television then?

Do you not think that the reasons that we are having to take this deal are not relevant to someone looking to make an investment decision?

Surely the historic issues around shareholder communication, the endless delays in KN1 remediation, the fiasco around C1 drill tender, delays in gaining license extension etc etc etc are just as relevant to a potential new investor as the the opinion that AEX will be in a better position as a result of this deal.

Is the opinion that "we have a genuine opportunity now to realise our dreams" any more relevant than the opinion that " we have only been forced into this deal because of the Management's own incompetence"....? Surely any potentail new investor needs to see both?

Are you now suggesting that if I (or anyone else) were to join your new "Investor Group" but were then to voice a negative opinion on the LSE, that you would close the "Investor Group" down, or, maybe would exclude me from it?

That reeks of censorship and I would have nothing to do with it.

TB and Drewky I am happy with any mechanism that works. I will leave that to you and the rest of the LSE posters to decide.

Just to let you know that I am traveling tonight and away for the next 72 hours so I will be only seldom looking in or contributing over that period.

GLA

And move forward we inevitably will Drewky, the issue is will that future just look like a repeat of the last 18 months or will the shareholders get some respect, will the BoD actually accept that they have messed up, that our current situation is the results of their errors and that consequently they have learnt some lessons from the experience and are able to take corrective action? Only by doing so will we avoid history repeating itself....

They need to demonstrate that the impressions of shareholders like TB, who do not believe they have shareholders best interests at heart, are wrong and that starts by being open and more communicative with shareholders - in fact the total opposite of their actions and attitude over the last 14 months.

I do not see any chance nor indeed sense, in stopping the Farm-Out as with the position that the BoD have created there is unlikely to be a realistic alternative but that does not mean that we should sit back, bend over and take yet another one up the jacksy...

I want th BoD to dramatically reduce the Operational overheads, conserve capital and be open and honest about the prospects and their strategy for the development of our remaining assets. Unfortunately we got to learn nothing about this at the AGM and it is unlikely to be discussed at the EGM, so there is every prospect that, just like the last 14 months since the Dublin AGM we will be told absolutely nothing about what their intentions are until July 2019. Would you be happy with that after what has gone on over that period?!

Yes? Those that do will continue as you are by telling everyone that everything is the garden is rosy. No? Those that don't will adopt something of a less complacent approach.

I am not prepared to let sleeping dogs lie. How about you?

Anybody suggesting that AEX would (even if they could -m which they can't) buy some or all of Solo's 25% must be deluded - AEX have no greater ability of funding the $35 million of required development capital than Solo have....! Why on earth do you think that they have just been forced into selling 50%?!

Moreover after this recent debacle I am sure that the AEX BoD have seen the negative side of investing in Tanzanian O&G - if there is any merit in the Farm-Out deal for AEX shareholders it is the reduction of Operational and Political risk associated with and the removal of ongoing funding requirements (up to $35 million anyway). Having just achieved these benefits buying Solo's 25% would simply put them back on the hook for both. That would be totally senseless....

What little capital AEX have they will need to hang on too until the Ntorya EPS starts to pay out - there is no more income coming in during that 18 -24 months period (notwithstanding a dribble from KN1) - and we have a $2 million salary bill to pay each year. Do you think the BoD would want to jeopardise their salaries?!

No,more seriously, even if the TPDC eventually sign off on KN1 remediation and we do start to get an income from KN1, we will need a lot more capital then we currently have (even with the $5 million from Farm-Out) to develope Kiliwani and Nyuni; so see no way that we will be buying anything in the short term.

The bigger question for me is do the TPDC still have sufficient confidence in AEX, after the NT2 and KN1 debacles, to sign off on any projects in which AEX acts as Operator? It seems evident that they did not trust them with the development of such an important National asset as Ntorya / Ruvuma and that before allowing that project to progress they required the management of the project in safer hands (operationally and financially). Why would that be any different for Kilwani and Nyuni?

And Drewky I have not sold out and hold many millions more than you. I agree that action needs to be taken but I cannot do that on my own; it will require collective action and that necessitates stimulating conversation and argument about what that action needs to look like. I am not criticising you for recommending that we all sit around and do nothing, if you want to let sleeping dogs lie that is your choice but if you do so don;t be surprised when we find history repeating itself with Nyuni and Kilwani. Unlike you, I would prefer to avoid that....

You said in some earlier posts that you "are not a sheep"; no Drewky and nor am I and I am not prepared to be led blindly into another disaster by the BoD. If you are that's up to you. You say " rather than just damage the share for others now you have sold out"; so, firstly I have not sold out secondly, unlike you it seems, I am not concerned about the short term share price but far more about the longer term performance of the BoD and optimisation of shareholders returns.

contd

But Drewky just before i go one more question;

You state "Not as good as if we could have funded it ourselves but that was never going to be the case and it was only said by someone making these complaints that we would have to farm out to go through to full field because we are just too small to cope with that sort of development."

But that has only become transparent since Wednesday - prior to that, as BG quoted earlier Full Field Development was meant to be "self funding"...... in the same way that C1 drill was fully funded?? Where and when did the $105 million come from? All smoke and mirrors Drewky.

And it is the excuse of their having to hide behind the TPDC's sensitivities that we only know about this now.

And what, "best let sleeping dogs lie"??? Get stuffed !

Yes me too bye bye for now....

You are totally missing the point Drewky we ARE looking forward; forward to Kiliwani and Nyuni.

They, as you may remember from the AGM ,(that's a laugh) are what we are concentrating on now that we are no longer the operator of Ruvuma. My point being that all the same reasons that we are no longer the Operator of Ruvuma are all still there Drewky so how and why can you have any confidence that we will still be the Operator of these assets at the time they actually approach production...? The TPDC have effectively ensured that the development of the Ruvuma assets that are so important to the country assets is now in the hands of someone they can have confidence in. That same TPDC have so far resisted signing off on the Kiliwani remediation work over for well over a year. When do you think that they would signoff on a project to drill Kiliwani South and connect it to the Songo songo GPP with Aminex managing it?

So the Tanzanian Govt / TPDC are going to entrust the pump primer of the economic development of their country to a Company that cannot even cope with NT2 and Kiliwani 1.....? No they are not.

So that being the case what is the chance of AEX ever getting to develope Kiliwani South and Nyuni as operator - even IF they could find the funding without being forced to give half or more of the assets and future value away in the process....

As I said yesterday - the storyline has already been written with Ruvuma; chapter 2 & 3 are Kiliwani and Nyuni... but what order?

I have just noticed your post TB and was prompted to respond.

Funding is not the only issue regarding Nyuni and Kilwani and as such even having more capital may not secure Aminex's independence and autonomy over their remaining Operator licenses - so maybe recognising the BoD don't see the cash issue as the most important.

We have been told that AEX have been totally unable to find alternative funding to cover the costs of Ntorya development so you are quite right to suggest that we will probably have to strike a very similar deal for our other "operated" assets; which of course have nowhere near the same value of assets - so how much could we realistically raise by farming that out anyway? $40 million for 50% of 1.87 TCF. So we would be lucky to raise $4 million for a similar deal for Nyuni and Kiliwani deosn't bear thinking about?! What are we likely to get for 57 BCF for Kiliwani South? And any Kiliwani South drill might come with the associated costs of "plumbing it in" to Songo Songo GPP?

Actually if JB is true to his word from 2016 AGM the expectation would be to Farm Out the drill for a share of the proceeds and we do actually have a GSA for Kiliwani. There is a big "however" though. However it has taken AEX over 12 months to get the TPDC to sign off o the KN1 remediation plan. And why is that?

Well I suggest that the reason that we are no longer Operator of the Ruvuma License is simply that the TPDC did not consider AEX competent to drill it!! Just look at there track record with NT2 and Kiliwani. Just about avoided disaster with NT2 and Kiliwani is, now, a disaster. I suggest that the TPDC did not want AEX as the Operator of Ntorya / Ruvuma.

The question now is will they sanction any development of Kiliwani and Nyuni whilst we are still the Operator of these licenses. We may have to hand them over to the Zubairs in any event and therefore not having sufficeint cash is something of an irrelevance.....

Ah that old nugget :0)

You mean that Camarco and the BoD will be writing it?

"secure" irish? Maybe but Malcy needs sp movement and "secure" doesn't do anything for that....

Anyway one and all I have to leave you now; I wish you all a good weekend.

30 quid Apache? No a bit more than that; he will have to work for over a week for that....

Whether AEX is on the bucket list or not will be interesting; Malcy's list aims for returns in a given calender year. Do you still think he believes it is worth "at least 10p"...... and in 2018? Even if the C1 is to be drilled this year (50:50) what on earth will get it to that level?

Each to their own Drewky; good luck.

Oh really should have sold when they took 29.9% should I, well thanks vike for the somewhat facetious and retrospective advice. Our current predicament has nothing to be with ARA, we wouldn't be needing a "white knight", if the BoD has actually managed to deliver half of what they promised and in the timescales suggested; that is nothing to do with ARA and their 29.9%. Unless of course you believe that the BoD have deliberately engineered this current siutation? I am not criticising the Zubairs - I just wish I had shares in ARA and not AEX BoD - unfortunately that is not the case.

I am quizzical about the $9m and $9m can you expand? We has $6 million in net cash assets as at the end of year 31/12/2017 (from memory) we have had no meaningful income in the intervening period. Yes we will have $3m from the farm out with $2m more to come but, by then will have spent close to another $2 million on salaries by then.

We will get KN1 back producing, if we can persuade the TPDC to sign off the work programme; which, so far at least, unsurprisingly they have not been persuaded to do. How long will it be before they sign off on Kilwani South etc

Is that is going to be enough to fund Kiliwani and Nyuni developments over the next two years is it? Even ignoring the $3m of overheads as well? Not a hope is the answer - even if you were right and we had $18 million....?

And OG-Newbie, I agree with you there is no particular hurry to so so and I am sure that the TPDC will be in even less of a hurry. That is exactly my point OG; why on earth do we need such an inflated BoD and Management team when, even if we could afford to, there will be no demand for this gas and therefore no need for any development of those assets for a good while. Anything there is will be directed towards the Ntorya and the Tanzanian great buddies the Zubairs.

That is good for AEX in the long term BUT can we keep the lights on in the intervening period? If we cut down the BoD and limit cash spent on development maybe. If nt, where is the money coming from? A drip feed from Kiliwani at the very best.

vike you also know very well that I have said many times that there will be NO third party bid for AEX but not because of the value of the assets but purely because ARA have a strangle hold over the company and, now, the principle assets too. They hold all the cards.... impenetrable.