Member Info for CrustyPete

Why would they do that? Or, if you mean a third party, why would the Zubairs allow it? It is easier and cheaper for them to let the AEX shareholders provide all the funding and 90% of the risk and then once they haven't got a pot left to **** in buy all the derisked assets of them at a song. Anyone that took us over would have to shelve all that risk themselves...

The storyline has been written with Ruvuma; chapter 2 & 3? Kilwani and Nyuni...

What is your alternative vike- where is the money coming from for us to develope these assets? Or diversify outside of Tanzania? We have just been told there is NO money for Tanzanian investment. If we ever needed proof of the importance of getting out of Tanzania, we have just had it in spades.....

You overlook one thing CP, that is the strong possibility that they would never have got to drill C1 with AEX as the operator..... After the AEX BoD and Management performance with Kiliwani would you trust them to drill something like C1? If I were the TPDC I may resist that.

Would you even allow them to re-enter KN1, drill Kiliwani South and Nyuni? I can see why NR and BH have decided to leave.

Drewky all of your list are on the cards but in my opinion maybe one of them is likely to be catalyst for a sustained sp rise and that depends on the outcome; and maybe I ought to remove the word "sustained" as even that is questionable.....

I haven't worked in "banking" for many a year but would agree that there are many a banker earning that sort of money; more's the point though that if any of them had performed as well as our CEO, or BoD in general have over the last 18 months have they wouldn't have been around to report to shareholders at an AGM.... They have annual performance reviews and get paid on "delivery" and on not smoke and mirrors

But then they don't typically have 29.9% support of a Cornerstone investor or have the TPDC sensitivities to hide behind; they also have the FCA and compliance officers looking over their shoulder....

Oh and by the way please help me to understand why it is that if Tanzania remains such a nightmare for investors, if we cannot get anyone else to buy in to our (best) assets, cannot raise a loan and when the BoD do not belive PI's or II's will support a placing / open offer we will do any better with our Kilwani and Nyuni assets than we have managed with Ruvuma?

How are we going to fund Kilwani South, 3D seismics over Nyuni, pay our $2 million salary bill between now and when the EPS starts to provide some income? Or do we sell 51% of those assets off to our related party and only, supposed, source of funding in the process...?

What sort of commercial model is that? We didn't even recoup our development costs on Ruvuma with this farm-out....

Oh sorry vike, dollars not sterling.... plus of course the little matter of 30,000,000 share options.

I am sure you think him worth every penny / cent?

Whatever the figure it is still time that the Zubairs started to pay for him and not AEX shareholders; he has made them an awful lot more money than he has earned us in the last 18 months... funny that. ;0)

Just as a point of information Drewky what do you mean by " I'll go for monetisation before end of 2019 and in between that there will be multiple SP rising events"? I am happy to buy the monetisation timeline (though I think Q1 2020 more likely) but what are the likely SP rising events? I can't see any. We won't get any of the above without License Extensions and Development License so these are both discounted; what are the others? C1 drill perhaps? Well whatever that spike might have been you can now cut it back by 66%. Do you think it might reach NT2 spud levels now that we only have 25% of skin in the game....?

The only possible positive during that period that I can see is the possible remediation of Kilwani which won't even then be at previous levels due to recharge issues. Furthermore even when the EPS does get to 40 MMscf/d our share of that will be no more than 10MMscf/d and that is only 66% of what KN1 was once producing and what was our shareprice then? 4p? When by the way we still had 75% of Ruvuma.... Wow, whee that'll be worth waiting for don't you think.

So yes Drewky the deal is better than nothing and we may eventually recover from the huge dilution of our assets but whatever we now get will be far smaller than most LTH's were anticipating and / or over a far longer time scale. No matter how you butter that up it is still a huge disappointment. Who has overseen that disappointment? BH and JB. Fortunately one has had the good grace to fall on his sword. It is about time that shareholders started to question how and why we continue to pay JB half a million a year.

It is about the Zubairs took charge of their own bill.....

Well ha can afford them on the 470,000 that we choose to pay him....The shares he now owns have fallen 50% since he last bought in so his buying them is absolutely no indication that they are going up - and let's face it earning 470,000 pa means he can very easily suffer the losses.

Quite right highland matt ".....For not having to do very much, that's not a bad income allow to progression of other projects in a couple of years time."

And as we do not have the funds to develope anything else during that two year period (and only have the Zubairs as our sole source of funds) why oh why do we need a $2 million BoD and Management team? It is this management team that have failed to deliver anything for over 15 months and have failed to sort out the Kiliwani issues that leave us in this position; why would we even trust them to develope Kilwani and Nyuni even if we had the funds to do so and even if the TPDC entrusted them not to **** it up all over again....

Anyway with Ntorya on "full gas" they won't need the Nyuni and Kiliwani supply for years so why would the TPDC be signing off anything?

Anyway one and all I am off, for now....

MAX the share price has gone down because of the deal that our illustrious BoD have just struck..... years of optimism and possibility obliterated in an instant; we will wait a bloody long time for the sp ever to get back to the heights of last February and why? Failed expectations, lack of delivery and an over inflated team and wage bill....

In truth voting against the deal at the EGM is probably not an option; what is plan B? But that is no reason to keep quiet and passively accept it.

Yes to the deal but a manifest NO to the BoD and that grossly inflated salary bill....

Oh believe me vike, I will......

So vike please enlighten me as to how, if the political and the resultant "funding" situation for projects in Tanzania is so adverse how AEX , JB and the team are going to avoid similar disasters and disappointments in Kilwani and Nyuni? Where and how will they get the funds to develope those without selling large chunks off for "a dime on the dollar"....? We certainly do not have sufficient capital to do so after this paltry deal so where is it going to come from?

Equally where do we get capital for diversification outside of Tanzania - not without diluting those existing assets which you have very elegantly explained are not saleable except at a bargain basement price.... We were told at the AGM that there are no buyers, we were told that they cannot dilute because neither PI's or II's are interested and they cannot borrow any money (difficult to believe)....

Moreover, with Ntorya now progressing more swiftly when, if ever, will there be the demand for any additional gas from Kiliwani and Nyuni?? There is enough in Ntorya to satisfy growing demand for years. When are the Tanzanian authorities, that we now know have no regard for AEX, going to allow us to progress with the development of the assets? We have even been totally unable to get them to sign off on KN1 remediation....

No vike but there is an acceptable level of "discount" and, to my mind our BoD management of the situation has been abject. So much for our relationship with the TPDC eh? What relationship? The Tanzanian authorities were pulling our chain all along but the arrogant BoD didn't realise that they were being played - or if they did simply chose not to divulge that to the shareholders. But then when you are earning close to £500k per year why would you?!

So we brought on BoD additional resource to develope Ntorya, sort out KN1 and develope Nyuni - and what have we achieved? Nothing.

So we admit defeat throw in the towel and sell out to Zubairs. Now I would fully agree that we have no bloody choice (thanks BoD) but what confidence does that give you that we won't make a similar shambles of Kiliwani and Nyuni? To me it is a racing certainty.... so what do we do about that? Continue to pay our CEO, BoD and our excellent Technicians $2 million a year to ruin the value of those assets too?

Do you think that JB will be worrying too much vike?

Well Gerry AEX couldn't find any. But then that was before the Zubairs "took over"....

Hey guys be very, very careful we don't know yet who is going to replace him... I believe that Brian Hall will have nothing to do beyond 2018!!

LOL

BLVN was also a farm-out vike. The subtlety is not lost on me - the issue is the price and nothing that you say can justify the derisory value attached to the deal. And why did we have to accept that price - because we had been "managed" into a corner by the AEX BoD.....

A $750,000 salary rise in 2017 just as the income form KN1 drops off a cliff, ramping up our staff just before we have a period of 14 months of total operational inactivity.

Fantastic management. Well done BoD.

I see this morning that NR is joining Brian Hall in retiring this year - both too embarrassed to continue? They should be.

vike I am not suggesting that the BLVN deal was a good one (I hated it) ; simply that the Zubair deal is 10 times worse.....

A gross oversimplification bike true BUT BLVN offered $24 m for 50% of Ruby ma pre NT2 drill (which they would have largely funded btw) and before a (AEX figure not mine) 12 fold increases in resources. Which of course much of is now 2C post NT2 , new basin model and CPR. By any method of measurement you choose that makes $40 m post those developments totally derisory.... Now we know why they chose to back off.

See my last post