Member Info for CrustyPete

fjones you really need to pay more attention; did you not read my earlier post?

"Rig tending was underway in April 2018 and it is hoped that the well can be spudded in 2018 once the Mtwara Licence has been extended for a further period as envisaged."

What that effectively says is that until we have the license extensions in place Aminex CANNOT commit to a spud date. Otherwise they run the risk that they fix a date and still haven't got a license in place when it comes to drill; that would be an expensive mistake.

Can I take it willowpillow that you now no longer harbour and delusions that NR will farm-out or sell out ahead of the 25 year development license? He even suggests that Solo are funded for C1 drill.....

"In November 2017 the Company signed a US$5 million financing facility with RiverFort Global Capital Limited ("RiverFort") to provide working capital and fund operations including the Horse Hill EWT and further appraisal at the Ntorya gas discovery."

Note "further appraisal at the Ntorya gas discovery.".... and that is drilling C1 and further seismic over the area.

If they bid for the License CP? Really? What with? What you really mean is, if the Zubairs bid for the License......?

Actually not a bad thing; as I inferred in a post the other day AEX do not have the bandwidth to develope Ntorya and Kiliwani in parallel let alone Nyuni and Lindi in too. Moreover do we really want to spend what little capital we may have at our disposal on yet another Tanzanian fiasco? That said according to some people (BG) we may not get the 25 Development License until 2020 so what will we be doing in the meantime? Well not developing Lindi that is for sure.

No, to my mind any monies spent on Lindi would be better invested OUTSIDE of Tanzania; we are already too heavily exposed and that makes us extremely vulnerable. Has anybody wondered what shenanigans may occur with the next Tanzanian election? That is now only two years away and we will be in full electioneering mode in 12 -15 months time. What happens if Magufuli loses?

So what have the Solo EOY report told us? That we have lost the Lindi License (because the TPDC do not believe we have the capacity to develope it), that KN1 is a virtual write off (but reworking is still being held up by the TPDC) and that contrary to what we have been told by our BoD in the past, C1 drill IS dependent on getting a License extension for Mtwara (funny that) see below;

"Rig tending was underway in April 2018 and it is hoped that the well can be spudded in 2018 once the Mtwara Licence has been extended for a further period as envisaged."

Fortunately the assets in Lindi province have never been attributed any value so we have lost nothing in NAV - but of course we have lost all future prospect of finding Oil in the area....

It's a pity we can't say the same about our share price! :0)

Well let's put it this way willow, if Aminex had chosen to "roll over" and take one up the jacksy for the $5.97 million ($2.73 to AEX) do you think we would still be waiting for the Development license approval? But then how the hell would Solo and the other Kiliwani partners feel about that? They have a smaller pot to **** in than AEX.

I tink it's not about the money it's about the politics - it would have effectively meant that the TPDC would, retrospectively, get their 5% (which they have not yet paid for) for nothing; a quid pro quo, "you slap my back...etc". Unfortunately AEX do not have the capacity to eat that size of a "give away".

All total speculation of course.

"So it is the case that aminex are holding back solo because they do not have the funding?"

No, I do not think so. My opinion is that AEX and Zubairs are trying to persuade the Tanzanian Govt to approve the 25 year Development License before completing the farm out and committing to the C1 drill. Why? because AEX cannot afford to sell off their concession for peanuts and the Zubairs will not pay full value for the asset until future "monetisation" of the Ntorya is assured. That said, without a farm out, other fund raising mechanism or a return to "full" production at KN1 I do not believe that AEX have the wherewithall to drill C1 even if they wanted to....

Also willow trrime believes that approval of the License is being held up because of the overdue "royalties" for KN1 production - there may well be some truth in this too; trrime is not the only person to have suggested this.

"isn’t the plan, get in early and then sell? I’m sure that’s solo’s business plan?"

That is a very good question willow but there has been absolutely zero evidence of it so far - that is precisely the reason that the sp is on it's knees; they keep buying yet more "longer" term assets before monetising those they already have. BUT that is no reason to sell the "cake" before it has finished baking and right now it is well undercooked....

You don't seem to get it willow do you ? Without the License extensions and the 25 year development license the 25% isn't worth a bean, let alone a " a nice wadge of cash "....... Do you think the Zubairs will pay him a "nice wadge of cash" out of the goodness of their hearts?!

Not on your nelly lol :0)

I can't see that happening before the 25 Year Development license (NR's own words) and even maybe C1 drill (whichever comes first). Why else would he have taken on $3.5 million of funding if not to pay for the drill? A slam dunk I believe.

Honestly willow I think your suggestion is very wide of the mark.

Yes maybe they could but only for tuppence ha'penny on the pound - but maybe you would prefer that? Moreover, if NR is to be true to his word, only after the 25 year Development License :0)

And just as Malcy's 10p is dependent on their getting a license so is Solo being able to sell their stake in Ruvuma; without a license it is worth ZERO.... So I wish NR the best of luck in trying to sell it without one Lol !! Solo won't be getting away from AEX anytime soon.

He said that he valued AEX at a minimum of 10p; nothing about 10p for a sale and nothing to do with a farm-out. 10p would give AEX a Market Cap of £360 million - and as Solo have 25% of Ruvuma that should value Solo at £120 million or thereabouts. That would give Solo far greater upside than AEX - largely because Solo have fallen far further relative to AEX; they once consistently had a Market Cap of between 25 -30% of of AEX's. It is now only 12-15% :0(

But then all that assumes that neither AEX nor Solo sell off their crown Jewels for tuppence ha'penny....

Perhaps willow you could explain how AEX can sell off Ruvuma for 10p? They are farming out an asset, not selling shares or the company...... And if they sell it for 10p that will value Solo's share at 3.3p and HH is worth nothing if it isn't "commercial". Perhaps it is better for all concerned if AEX sell Ruvuma off for £5m per %age point- but then that, of course, would mean that Ruvuma dwarfs HH - and AEX are the operator.

Well maybe the reason amoeteto is simply that the shareholders are no longer supportive - he is hardly going to make a statement to that effect !!! "The shareholders are no longer supportive because of the share price collapse" would do the sp a world of favours wouldn't it :0) Lol

Any farm - out that Solo manages to negotiate would have to be agreed both by the Operator and the TPDC.... End of.

In short the AGM starts at 2:00 and we will need to be there a 10-15 minutes beforehand. I have already booked the Restaurant for 8 people for a 12:00 start. I will try and add to that closer to the event but I am not phoning every time that another person asks to join the party, I asked for confirmations on Tuesday.

I will see how many have committed at close of play tomorrow and revise the booking accordingly - after that I will not be adding any more.

The venue is as below

http://ristorantegustoso.co.uk/

steve you have to remember that, currently all that UKOG is looking to establish is a long term flow test - longer term the production strategy will be determined BUT an Octopus type drilling from one drill pad is only viable of there is sufficient underground pressure to force the Oil up multiple lines (without compression). To make an assumption that this is possible is optimistic to say the least.....

Those figures that you quote are, of course, purely for the PAET contracts. The Songo Songo GPP has not been operational for long and both AEX and PAET have been involved there since about the same time. has there been much of a difference in the quantity of gas supplied by the two entities? I would have expected that the TPDC are very aware of the quantity of gas supplied by both parties into the SS GPP.

The biggest difference between PAET and AEX is that PAET actually operates the GPP on behalf of TPDC....

That said I am very happy to wait and see what the BoD have to say on the subject at the AGM.

One more thing - any other takers for a table for lunch on the 11th July? I am going to book the table when I walk past tomorrow. So far, names confirmed.

Last throw
vike1
Leaflessclover + 1
Cperkin
Drewky

If I have missed anyone off the list above I do apologise - just give me the nod and I will amend accordingly.

There are a couple of names that have tentatively indicated they would like to attend - well now is the time to confirm if you can. Though there is always the possibility of adding a name or two later.