Member Info for CrustyPete

Sorry, hadn't finished... I suspect that the prospective "end-state" has already been agreed in principle by all three parties and simply requires rubber stamping by Minister of Energy and the delivery of that Development License. But this could hardly be put in front of shareholders as it is hardly following the internal Tanzanian processes, protocols or "due process"; it would be commercial suicide to even breath a word of it - a sure fire way of ensuring it never happened methinks...

CP, you ask the question "Is it not possible for the Zubairs and Aminex to agree in principal and communicate the same based on the licence being supplied." I am pretty sure that is EXACTLY what has already happened..... We discussed a week or so ago the likelihood that these Farm-In discussions were not simply between AEX and Eclipse as the inevitability of a TPDC back-in would be an issue for Eclipse and the "deal" would require TPDC approval

I think the delay in the AGM was simply to afford the BoD as much time as possible to try and get these things ticked off. When dealing with the TPDC or the Tanzanian Govt they were never in control of the time lines and one thing is irrefutable and that is that before a farm-out they WILL need the License extensions and the timing of those is as much in doubt as the timing if the 25 yr Development License approvals; if we do not get either of these within the next two weeks the prospect of a Farm-Out before the AGM is zero..... And, if not I think we can look forward to a Dilution to fund C1 drill and KN1 work over.

I understand both viewpoints and both make sense. Some suggest that the Energy Minister and TPDC will want to see Farm Out and C1 drill before the License is approved and that logic is perfectly sound. Equally I believe that if I were Eclipse I would want to see both the License Extensions and the 25 Year License before I committed my funding - without that in place there will be no guarantee of "route to market" nor timing for a return on capital employed. I would also want to make my investment before the C1 drill as that is where I will get an uplift on that investment. Without that by the time the Gas and, maybe, Oil has been proven up and the 25 Development License is approved the assets will be pretty much fully valued. It will simply be an annuity income stream..... This is why from a shareholders perspective it could be argued that we ought to fund the C1 drill ourselves through lending or dilution BUT will we get any takers for a farm out afterwards? And where will we get the funds for 3D seismics and drilling for Kiliwani South and Nyuni? I think we will see the Development License approval before or at the same time as the Farm Out announcement and probably the reason that we will therefore not get this done or the AGM..... I hope though we will see the License Extensions, Rig contract conclusions and Kiliwani work programme between now and the AGM.

Incidentally CP, nowhere does AEX state that the negotiations with the Zubairs apply only to AEX's 75%..... I do also remember from years ago statements from both parties that effectively suggested that negotiating Farm-Out's was complicated by having a potential partner having to have individual negotiations with each Partner entity. TH evEndor agreement obviates that problem.

I fundamentally disagree with you CP; the Vendor Collaboration Agreement has been in place since 2012 and I strongly believe would apply to all and any Farm-Out agreement that Aminex negotiate, effectively on behalf of both partners.... I agree with you on the Development License but if the above is true and if NR recognises that fact his assertions regarding the Development license being a prerequisite for a Farm Out can only lead to one conclusion....? Unless, of course, he is simply referring to a Solo only Farm-Out?

There is a big difference between Solo being "included" in the deal and being "included" in the negotiations. Using BLVN as the model; at that time Solo announced an agreement with Aminex to farm out 12.5% of Ruvuma to Aminex as part of a "back to back" agreement with BLVN to farm out a 50% working interest in Ruvuma. This was announced at the same time as the AEX BLVN deal was announced. The AEX shareholders were not notified of the AEX-BLVN conversations nor of the AEX - Solo conversations UNTIL the terms of both agreements had been concluded. And interestingly Solo were not involved in any discussions with BLVN. If Aminex were talking to anyone other than the Zubairs - a related party - I see no reason to think that we would have been notified of those discussions. Moreover until the terms can be confirmed Solo have nothing to announce.... See below (from 19th November 2015): " Solo and Aminex entered a Vender Collaboration Agreement for their Ruvuma PSA interests in October 2012. As a result of a wider transaction between Aminex and Bowleven, Solo has agreed to participate in the farm-out of 50% of its interests in the Ruvuma PSA and receive a pro rata share of the agreed farmout proceeds in the form of a work programme carry of US$2.5 million and various production bonuses associated with the existing Ntorya gas condensate discovery. " Note well the sentence "Solo and Aminex entered a Vender Collaboration Agreement for their Ruvuma PSA interests in October 2012".... effectively stating that any Farm-Out deal that AEX negotiated allied pro-rata" to Solo's interests. The question is does this still apply?? I see no reason to think that it doesn't. Neil Ritson has stated endlessly that Solo will not be farming out until after the Development license approval. QED the Aminex Zubair Farm-Out cannot happen until after the Development License approval

Yes CP quite right but I should, of course said Wednesday 21 st. ...

"The best solution would be a decision to retire by NR and a plan to wind down SOLO and liquidate the assets in an orderly way." Here here Mr Burns - my preferred outcome all round. But, in reality what does that mean? Ultimately the only serious asset worth selling is Ruvuma and that is still some way from being saleable..... We would still need someone to achieve optimum value from our assets and that would require some development for some of them. HH, Ruvuma, Kiliwani South.... after the IPO we could easily sell Helium One assets but they too will not reach fair value until after the drill. So in short whilst I fully agree with you Mr Burns I would suggest that this time next year would be the optimum time for that disposal. Who would run it in the meantime? And who would want to take it on for only 12 months? Jon Fitzpatrick maybe? The rumours are that NR wants to buy some new "near production" assets; if that is true we have to put the mockers on that - it is totally inconsistent with your proposed agenda.

Yes exactly so.....

Yes Drewky I was simply questioning the 6 months.....

Drewky even if it was an "oversight" or a misunderstanding of the need for an independent assessment it is unlikely in my view to have cost us the 6 months that you claim. It would have been three months Max. At the time of the AGM (18th May 2017) the BoD were only just in the process of preparing the Development license application; as I pointed out the IO Commercial Study was only commissioned in July, so to my satisfaction if they were to have commissioned a CPR sooner it would have been highly unlikely at any date prior to this.

Yes willow, I just wish that I was one of those "new" investors that was putting in "new" money at these levels; unfortunately mine is "old" money at considerably higher levels...... And whilst the delays are unfortunate and beyond the control of either Solo, or AEX and can largely be excused NR's penchant for spending money he hasn't got is inexcusable...... our financial security would not now being questioned if it were not for his reckless spending.

Brian Cassidy also joined after the analysis for the New Basin Model had begun and he had absolutely nothing to do with that. So the two things are just as likely to be coincidental. Moreover IO were appointed in July for the Commercial Study (even though it was not complete at the time of the application); the BoD had recognised the need for that so it seems likely that they knew the need for a CPR, or it's equivalent, it is simply that the timing of it's submission was dictated by completion of the New Basin Model. If there was an error (I stress IF, because I don't think so) it is more likely that the BoD had expected that their own New Basin Model would have been acceptable, not realising, or accepting, that it has to be an Independent Assessment. This might explain why the CPR was commissioned only a few days after the submission of the application, i.e after the TPDC had pointed this out.

The share price by itself means nothing, it is all about Market Capitalisation. Solo is currently worth circa �12 million and with 460 million shares in issue, hence an SP of 2.5p. Another company worth �12 million pounds may have only 46 million shares in issue and therefore the SP would be 25p. The question is why is the Company only worth �12 million pounds; in short, funding concerns, the possibility of further dilution and the fact that the Company's principle assets have been awaiting positive news for months. Moreover the largest asset by far in Solo's portfolio is their holding in the Ruvuma concessions but as of now the licenses over this concession have run out and until they are renewed or extended these could reasonably be considered to have NO value.... this is a slim risk but a real one and Solo are not in control of this process; the Operator AEX has some issues of it's own and the certainty or timing of these renewals is questionable. Will Solo have enough cash to sit it out? Will they have to dilute yet again? Will they be forced into selling this asset to raise cash? Lots of uncertainty and therefore a lot of uncertainty of Solo's actual value. Investors do not like uncertainty. But as CP says it is all about the risk vs reward ratio and your appetite for it..... do you think these issues will get resolved? If so that equation looks a good one. If not it is time to run for the hills and many people have done just that.

highlandmatt: Maybe LeBlanc is held up by approvals? Yes I am sure that is, in part true certainly for Kiliwani BUT explain the change in strategy from Compression to Workover? Who has overseen that debacle? As vike states he was brought in to drill NT2 and look at that outcome; yet another debacle. Brian Cassidy was not there for the Development license application so he could have contributed nothing to that BUT I will expect him to have been heavily involved in the Farm-Out. Once the License application is approved and the Rig tender completed he will be busy but he will have been twiddling his thumbs since he was introduced. I do not believe that JB "forgot" the CPR; in my view the CPR was not commisioned until they had completed their own New Basin Model, a model that the CPR then simply confirmed or validated, maybe with some amendment or augmentation. But without the Basin model the CPR would have taken a lot, lot longer and would have been far more costly as RPS would have had to do a huge amount of the donkey work that the likes of Le Blanc, JB, their NED's and maybe even Neil Ritson were working on.... Regarding JB, you say: Maybe that is what attracted the Zubairs? Yes probably. Someone that would be their man inside AEX and simply play the shareholders with a dead bat.....

I understand your thought process but do not agree with the conclusion. When you were referring to Kiliwani I had assumed you were talking about reworking KN1. To me the prospects of drilling Kiliwani South are even more remote and unlikely. The new drill location would still need connecting to the GPP and that would require the complicity of the TPSC and a GSA etc and the drill costs and time of connection are likely to be just as high and just as protracted as the EPS solution. And yes I do firmly believe that the pipeline and connections to the three Ntorya wells IS the EPS and I am certain that it has been described as such.

I understand your thought process but do not agree with the conclusion. When you were referring to Kiliwani I had assumed you were talking about reworking KN1. To me the prospects of drilling Kiliwani South are even more remote and unlikely. The new drill location would still need connecting to the GPP and that would require the complicity of the TPSC and a GSA etc and the drill costs and time of connection are likely to be just as high and just as protracted as the EPS solution. And yes I do firmly believe that the pipeline and connections to the three Ntorya wells IS the EPS and I am certain that it has been described as such.

Indeed BD, understood but I am just concerned that the (title) would be considered to be the current Nominees? I jst return to the conversations conducted with the AEX BoD?

vike we are not talking about the "immediate need" - the need for C1 gas is for Q3/4 2019 - if the do not drill C1 this year there is no way that the TPDC or the Energy Minister will be able to meet prospective demand at that point and beyond. The Energy Mnister in particular will have been tasked with meeting that forward demand curve. Will they risk that? Heads might roll.....