Member Info for CrustyPete

So my take on things is not as positive as many below; 1) We have been diluted but without taking any money off the table 2) The IPO that we were supposed to use to raise some capital is now NOT mid 2018 but now late 2018, so where does the cash flow come from in the intervening period 3) this pre IPO cash raise does absolutely nothing to materially increase the perceived value of the H1 asset and does not augur well for the IPO valuation later in the year Just another in the ever increasing list of delays in "monetisation" of Solo's assets.

TYpically if you are going to execute on T10, 15, 20 or 25 you have to request that at the time of dealing. It is not something that can be applied retrospectively unless you have a very acquiescent broker or one that you drink with in the Pub! ;0)

It is certainly not helped by the delays being experienced in Tanzania but compounded , in Solo's case, by similar delays at HH and on the release of the EOY report which would normally have been seen by now.

NO! Filter but then I never have..... If we do not hear anything by next Monday it will be too late to approve as part of any augmented list of AGM resolutions anyway so there is no longer (if there ever was) any benefit in rushing them out before the AGM. As I have previously stated I believe that the Farm-Out is contingent on the Development license approval and that has never been in the AEX BoD's gift...... I also think that the License extensions and development license might also be intertwined as the Mtwara and Ntorya Licenses may very well be for separate areas 1) The Mtwara Appraisal Area excluding Ntorya Development Area and 2) Ntorya Development area.... and you cannot have the first without the second. If the first was simply superceded by the second what would be the initial drilling obligations for the Mtwara Appraisal License, bearing in mind that those drilling obligations would have to be met by (suggested) 2020.....?! I suspect that the drilling obligations for the larger Mtwara Appraisal area would be met by meeting the requirements of the Development License - but without those requirements being approved what would be the initial position?

But vike you say "My point though, was that even using outdated old BV figures, which a new investor would rightfully look at first, we are STILL trading at a huge discount." And my point is that the valuation in now irrelevant as it ignores the loss of the licenses over our principle asset and as such despite the CPR and the increase in GIIP for these assets they can currently have no value; all value expired with the licenses....

All Grenache n' Mourvedre Mmmm :0)

Bezzer, after the Acacia Mining debacle and the ongoing saga Corporate Investment in Tanzania has all but dried up and now with Exxon selling up, if the Tanzanian Authorities were to fail to provide these Licenses to Aminex it would be the Tanzanian Govt committing Political and Economic suicide.... No-one would invest in Tanzania again and they would not get re-elected.

Without a doubt. Though that may not necessarily mean the Development License..... As far as I see it the extension of the old Mtwara Appraisal License may then have the Development License overlaid on top but then what realistically would be the drilling obligations for the "non Ntorya Dev License" area? What would be the point of the Appraisal License over and above the Development Area obligations? I think that there will effectively be three areas; Mtwara excluding the Development Area, The Development Area itself and then the "new" Lindi License. But for these Licenses to be granted they must all be done in parallel and done in the full knowledge of the others.... If this is true it might explain why we have not yet got the license extensions over the Lindi and Mtwara areas; they cannot be concluded until the Development License has been approved - you cannot have a Mtwara Appraisal area excluding Ntorya Development License area without a Ntorya Development License....

So that just proves my point vike, 50% of NAV based on a set of assets at a time when we did have licenses for all of it but which without licenses over much of that asset base has surely no "book value" at all....?

50% discount to NAV ? That surely depends upon what figure you give to our Ruvuma assets, which is anybody's guess when we no longer have any current licenses over the area. It is resolving this issue that will change the equation, nothing else.

I would agree with both of you - anything is possible but the 400 - 600 BPD suggestion is more probable. Certainly in the short term and, let's face it, the short term is the relevant timeline for current sp movements.

20,000!? Crikey, steve I want some of whatever you are taking..... I suggest you prepare for disappointment.

So the conclusion? The HH flow test results may add 20% to Solo's sp...... yawn zzzzz

Yes CP and over a 20 year delivery period - discount that for cost of money....?

"closer to home"? How about South America? Is that close enough for you? Watch this space......

"Obviously"? Really? Or maybe the "problem" is with the Tanzanian authorities.....? The same Tanzanian authorities that Helium1 will be dealing with. And be careful what you wish for Steve you may well change your mind when the HH flow test results are complete; will it be worth buying more of if we end up with no more than 200 - 300 bpd? What will be the value of Solo's stake then steve? What would you value it at?

That is the problem with Solo's "portfolio" investment strategy; even when you have one project approaching maturity it only has a limited impact as there are always another 3 or 4 that are a million miles away...... UKOG is "all in" with HH and success there feeds 100% into sp but HH is a pimple on Solo portfolio's arse. All eyes are on Ruvuma and then I would suggest H1 - what a pity that both are in Tanzania. What makes Solo shareholders think that H1 will have any easier a ride with the Tanzanian authorities than AEX?

CP "what would you expect the recovery to be from this % wise?" it would be a brave man to predict that with any confidence particularly as I do not know the basis of the original estimate; was that an "Oil in Place" estimate? If so many contributory factors could massively impact that estimate, so the margin of variation is very wide, typically 10% - 55% would be a reasonable expectation but the probability of an "outlier" is not a small one; recoveries of 80+% have been known

JD I really do think that to suggest that the Ruvuma EPS will be delivering income before the years end is generous in the extreme. It has already been suggested that it will be 6 - 8 months post the successful drilling and analysis of C1 before that can happen and there seems to be no short term date for the spud, so surely Q2 2019 is the very earliest realistic date for that....?

trrime a "fair offer" would have absolutely NO reference whatsoever to the amount that Solo has or has not invested in it. As CP says the figure will depend upon when it is received (pre or post C1 drill and Development License) and whether the Zubairs are prepared to pay a 2C or 2P price for the assets (or some combination thereof)...... moreover it is yet to be clear what exactly the Zubairs are looking to buy into? There are possibly three separate licenses covering separate areas within Ruvuma 1) Mtwara, 2) Lindi and 3) the Ntorya 25 yr Development License; will they be looking to buy in to one, two or all three? And what exactly will those licenses look like? I expect (certainly hope) the offer to reflect a combination of 2P and 2C assets and still allow the Zubairs some meaningful upside. The recent Swala/Orca offer provides a benchmark; so I would hope that any offer does not seem to be taking us all for fools and would consider a figure of below $3 m per %age point to be a "low ball" offer but equally I would be surprised to see an offer of above $5m as that would be "generous" measured against the Swala benchmark. The extensions and approvals will be necessary in order to make any worthwhile judgement....