Member Info for CrustyPete

Transformational ?! Talk about gullible. Don't believe the headlines. All that the BoD have managed to transform here is a $300 million asset (reference BLVN deal) into an $80 million deal... and as it is the only material asset we have and now only 25% of it, with the few $ millions we have and the $35 million we have in free carry if effectively put a "mark to market" valuation on our assets of maybe £75 - 80 million. We are bloody lucky that the so is as high as it is. Before yesterday's news we had an asset worth $300 m and owned 75%of it..... and before yesterday's revelation no-one was aware that we needed $105 million to extract it ( if you believe that figure ) nor that AEX is totally incapable of negotiating Tanzania politics. Well yesterday the BoD finally admitted defeat after years of pulling the wool over shareholders eyes.... And you are surprised at the market reaction? In my opinion it could be a lot worse.

Yes LT, did speak to JB on the matter and he said that with the caveat that all work over or remediation still has to be signed off by the TPDC , he is expecting work to start very soon. They have two options the first of which has only a relatively small COS (10 - 20%) but would be very low cost. ( it involves pumping foam down the well) the second involves further perforating the well. There will still be a recharge issue but with or possibly without compression it should get back up to meaningful production levels. That said NOT back up to 15 Scuffs per day.... Hope that helps as I won't be around much if at all for the remainder of the day.

The only problem with that statement CP is that the EPS may not be "online" until Q4 2019 or even as late as Q2 2020. The new license extension is only due to run to 2020 and there will be drilling or other obligations to meet over that period. That means running the seismic and maybe a 2nd or even 3rd drill before the C1 & NT1 & 2 are in production and providing income....

Brian Hall hot his out ? Was that "out" or "cut"...? Just checking. What a way to go out eh? With a whimper.... true to firm. Bye for now

Does anyone have a memory that goes back to November 2015 - this was when we got offered $24 million for 50% of Ruvuma by Bowleven. Oh and that was before the NT2 drill (which AEX would not have had to pay for) and before we had a 12 fold increase in resources.

It just beggars belief.

A long long way from the pre consolidation price of 18p though eh? What will the C1 drill effect be? Mmmm?

kempey they don't cost 4750,000 that was simply last years (2017) pay increase!!! The bill for 2017 was just below $2 million, increased from $1.2 million.

For what? What extra did we get for that $750,000 increase? Whoopee a "pay off " of $40 million for 50% of our assets. Well done AEX team

Majedie? I could not say for sure matherdj, I certainly did not get to see or speak to them - unfortunately.

I agree with the principle edgar just not the price; it still leaves us without sufficient cash neither to develope our other Tanzanian assets nor diversify outside of Tanzania. Where do we go from here?

There is good news on Kiliwani though JB was confident of reworking KN1 fairly soon and expects it to be providing us with revenue before the year's end. This should be a fairly low cost option.

FWIW I agree with vike and CP on this - based on this deal (which is lousy for AEX shareholders) Solo should be trading at circa 4 - 5p on the back of this; $20 million for Ruvuma 25% plus other assets

However I simply do not see where Solo are going to go to sell their 25% other than to the Zubairs and will they get a more favourable deal that AEX? That seems unlikely to me.

I agree matherdj and also about not only the expanded BoD but also the expanded team. We had an increase in Salary Bill last year of $750,000 and increased the team to cope with the increased work programme. What work programme?
We are no longer even the "operator" of Ruvuma why on earth do we now need these people?

The $35 million "carry" helps us not one jot with cash flow; so we will get $5m over a 6 month period once the deal is approved - that just about covers the salary bill for two years LOL.... so every two years are we going to sell off another asset just to keep the "gravy train" going for an over inflated "team" of highly paid failures?

And Wryape - there is still a chance that we will get the C1 drill in the ground in 2018 but the BoD were typically cautious about that question and would not be drawn; I think you can draw your own conclusion from that ;0)

QT, ask your self this; Aminex have effectively admitted that they cannot handle the Tanzanian authorities nor the scale and complexity of the Ntorya development and have admitted defeat; that to develope Ntorya quickly they needed to hand over "control" to the Zubairs.....

How on earth do you think that little ole Solo and even smaller Helium 1 are going to get on?

But investor-tester if we are too small to be able to fund and develope an onshore asset with "proven" reserves of 1.87 TCF an asset that, we are told, no-one wanted to buy because of the state of play in Tanzania, who and how on earth are we meant to fund the development of Nyuni without selling it off for a song as have just done with Ruvuma? JB today states that the Farm-Out was effectively forced because of AEX's inability to drive the development forward (basically they cannot exercise the leverage over the TPDC and Tanzanian authorities that the Zubairs can); how on earth are they any better placed to do that with Nyuni? Won't the AEX BoD end up, in exactly the same way, having to sell that off to the Zubairs for a song just to drive that forward?

"Are they artificially high?" Not 'arf.....

But, we are told , we will get our $35 million regardless.

We were given all the reasons under the sun to explain why we had to accept the "only offer on the table" and to avoid the "drill and fund" (their therm) or the "drill and dilute" (my term). So what the hell is going to change with Kiliwani South and Nyuni? Where do we go for funding when we need to run 3D seismics or drill a well or connect to Songo Songo GPP.... sell off another 50% of those assets for "a dime on the dollar" as we have just done with Ruvuma....

What is the fecking point of hanging around for that?

MAX as a result of this deal we have now increased our "cash at bank" from a maximum of $6m to possibly $11m, assuming of course we can rebut the TPDC "royalties" issue (which yet again was "pooh poohed"). That by itself may be enough to develope some measure of Kiliwani South and early stage Nyuni (seismics etc) but it won't even tickle the sides of an "extra Tanzania" diversification programme - unfortunately.

If there is an upside it is that we may be able to get some measure of KN1 back on track in the not too distant future and at minimal cost; the issue for me is that I have been hearing that for too long and it is still TPDC dependent - how long have I been saying that KN1 is our Achilles heel?

Good question TB. "Is it a take it or leave it offer?"

That is the perversity; the AEX BoD were continually suggesting that $40 million was nothing more than a rounding error for them. Which of course begs the question "So what was wrong with paying a bit more"?

I have no doubt that we will end up selling 50% to The Zubs - I do think there might be some mileage in trying to extract some more money, after all they still hold 29.9%; isn't it in their interest? As I said to some BOD members afterwards, if they had given us enough to develope Nyuni and Kiliwani we might have been "happy" but does this deal mean we have to dilute yet again to fund these? So sell Zubairs yet more of our assets for a song to fund their development / monetisation?

Nearly but not quite. What I now have I will hold.

And what do you think a shareholder action group would do to the SP MAX?

cont'd

I look forward to our forthcoming "Performance Related" pay scheme; it is only a pity that it wasn't in place over the course of the last 14 months; at least we might have had the satisfaction of knowing that our illustrious leaders were feeling our pain.

BH on the other hand is doing his "Pontius Pilate" impression. Thanks BH for all you have done it should be "Pompous Pilot".

I will be calling my numbers at the FCA over coming days.

Bye bye all.