Member Info for CrustyPete

Drewky what on earth are you talking about? "It is nothing more than a scare story with a tiny sweetner on the end."

Are we talking about different posts? What scare story?!?! Where oh where is the scare story in my post to CP? You must have an overly vivid imagination or conversely see hidden agendas between every line....

So IF that is true that effectively avoids the original question which was how would we pay for the Seismics unless we were to wait until 2020 to pay for it...I do not remember seeing or hearing anywhere JB state that we would not be doing the analysis of the Seismics until 2020 but if you say that is true all well and goo

The basis of my question still holds though - if we are called upon to pay for the 3D Seismics anytime before Q1 2020 we will struggle to pay for it. We will not have the $12 - $15 million in the kitty to pay for it until then and that assumes that we will have been earning meaningful sums from Kiliwani for a good period in advance of that.

I would not be surprised to see, indeed I would actively welcome, a fund raise after the Farm-Out is signed to get the ball rolling on those seismics as soon as possible, rather than have to wait another 12 -18 months to do so. This would also give JB some cash in hand to do something on his "well flagged" desire to diversify outside of Tanzania....

There is something going wrong with this site today - I have already responded to this once!!

CP< regarding your 15 MMscf/d and $957,000. JBB has stated that he expects to get back to 7/8 Scuffs a day post remediation. Though who knows where we might get to after re-perforating the well.... maybe this supercedes previous statements. Let's face it, it would not be the first time that something JB stated needed to be retracted but it would be great if it was retracted for positive reasons....

Agreed Drewky to a large extent but we also have a large overhead to support and, just to gauge the likely cost of such a seicmic programme, the 3D seismics for Ntorya are expected to cost a minimum of $8 million and a figure of $10 million has been mentioned in the past. The area covered in Ntorya is smaller than is being proposed for Nyuni and Kiliwani AND is onshore, and offshore surveys cost a lot more per sq km than onshore so I would expect the cost of 3D seismics for the area to be circa $12 -15.

So yes Drewky I am well aware of the fact that we had $2.6 million at the half year and will receive funds once the farm-out is complete BUT this will not be enough on it's own. So that is why I ask the question Drewky and not because I have some malign agenda to peddle. Do not tar everyone with your own brush. You need to accept that fact that not every comment is a personal slight at you Drewky, not every opinion has a hidden agenda and that actually there are aspects of AEX performance and prospects that LTH holders want to discuss for genuine reasons.

And smudger you state

"November 18th upon FO completion we get the first tranche". Had the fact that we are not now expecting the farm-out to complete until Nov 30th passed you by?

Firstly smudger I am hoping that we will not berequired to repay the TPDC and AEX BoD contest the claim; if it the discussion had been concluded I suspect that we would have been told already, one way or the other.

Secondly Bounty are owed as much by the TPDC as the TPDC claim they are owed by Bounty - so in any event Bounty would have nothing to pay. Nor would AEX. They would simply lose what they are owed.

Drewky my point about Bounty was not that they consider KN1 a "waste of time" but likely that it will take too long and will not in any event provide them with sufficient income to cover their ongoing obligations for Kiliwani and inshore Nyuni Seismics....

It comes back to the same question that I asked the other day; how will AEX (and therefore Bounty) cover the costs of Kiliwani and Nyuni 3D seismics without a fund raise? Unless they choose to wait until 2020 and Ntorya EPS starts to pay an income? KN1 will not provide sufficient for a long while yet? Maybe what? $500,000 a month once back on stream So maybe they will have accumulated a sufficient cash pile by Q4 2019?

Bounty are in the same boat and without a Ntorya or any other possible income stream maybe not in a position to raise any money.

The unfortunate thing for them is that were it not for these interminable delays in remediation and the current moratorium on TPDC payments they may well not have been forced into this unfortunate position.

Dear oh dear Drewky you do seem to be overly sensitive "Jump up and down on me again Pete if you like....".No Drewky I was simply pointing out the current position. Are you genuinely contesting the statement that the TPDC are not paying us until the disputed claim is resolved?

From the half year figures "Pending the outcome of these discussions, the TPDC has withheld payments due and invoiced for Kiliwani North gas sales ". The total "gross" claim is virtually the same as our outstanding "gross" receivables for KN1 invoices...So until and unless the dispute is resolved successfully the TPDC owe us nothing. Like you I think this is just "leverage" but the fact remains they will not be paying us any more until it is out of the way. I think that just about covers it Drewky.

As regards KN1 remediation, we cannot advance beyond repair of the valve until the TPDC have signed off the work programme. I think that in most people's judgement the TPDC signing off on the Remediation Work programme would constitute a "material event" particularly after waiting so long and I would hope that the BoD would let shareholders know ! I think it would warrant an RNS but, if not, at least a TWEET!.

Or was it the Drewky Carbuncle song "you've got to eradicate the negative, amplify the positive".....

Sorry Drewky, only joking :0)

In my view Tarry you have every reason to be "cautious". In the position we now find ourselves nothing can be guaranteed, particularly any of the timeframes; the recent presentation and the continued wait for an EGM only goes to prove that.....

The BoD have delivered on nothing since the AGM of May 2017 despite many their assertions regarding KN1 Remediation, C1 drill, License extensions and the apparent "support" of the TPDC in all measure of things over that period. Consequently I am not convinced there won't be yet another twist in the plot before the Farm-Out and 25 Development license approval.

Hence I remain a "HOLD". Words are cheap, delivery is what I want to see and it is a long time since the BoD did anything on that score.

Yes a GL, an additional 6% of something is better than not having it, the additional obligations are minimal and the upside good (If we can ever get the work programme signed off) but it is a sorry state of affairs that get's us here...

I am assuming that Bounty would have had to pay for ongoing Seismics over Kiliwani South too and that I am sure they were never going to afford. Plus of course the suggestion that Kiliwani and Nyuni Licenses are to be merged - that would have involved them in even more expense that was never likely to be fully covered by KN1 incomes even if / when they do come back.

You seem to be forgetting then outstanding $5.93 million claim by the TPDC Drewky. Whether we believe the AEX BoD or not in their repudiation of the validity of the claim the fact remains that until it is resolved no-one is getting paid and according to the TPDC they owe us nothing and are paying nothing.

This it seems is Bounty's problem they are owed money from KN1 but with the current Moratorium on payments means they do not have sufficient to cover their partnership obligations... a catch 22. However I do think the delays in the remediation of KN1 are a contributory factor; Bounty do not believe that it is worth raising the money to cover their ongoing obligations and what does that say about their confidence in the successful outcome of the remediation work programme? Or maybe, their confidence that it will get sign off anytime soon? They are happier giving it up that funding their continued partnership.

Oh and of course the little matter of getting the KN1 remediation work programme signed off and successfully completed :0)

Both very good and encouraging observations CP and Drewky - just need to get that overhanging $5.97 million TPDC dispute resolved and we should be set fair. Without that, no matter what we supply in gas terms we wont get paid for it.

Hardnose, well said. Yes, a good summary.

And Dunder, quite right "point is nothing has been found in the ground at that location yet". But there is a drill coming up. Eventually.

Ah there you go again Drewky interpreting events to suit your preconceived biases. I did not ignore the fact that they are targeting Oil "because" they have not put it in the presentation; I have long stated my belief that they are fundamentally drilling for gas but that Oil may, note may, be a bonus find. Besides which it is NR that has been the most vociferous about them targeting Oil, JB has said very little on that score. I am simply saying that IF they were confident of finding Commercial Oil shows in C1 they would have referenced it in the Presentation. The fact that they haven't speaks volumes.

And to put you right yet again; I did NOT say that there is only water down there, I am simply pointed out that the, last time they targeted "liquids" (at NT2) they decided that the liquid in question was, most likely, water. That is NOT just my opinion and has nothing to do with I "think I know better" that was Aminex's own opinion. So for someone that puts so much store in "facts", that is a FACT!

And here you go again! "do you really think they would waste time and money targeting it?" When will the penny drop Drewky? They are NOT wasting any money targeting liquids Drewky - they are drilling C1 for gas!! If they find Oil it is a bonus - it costs them no more money if they find it or not!!! How simple can that be?

Yes, Drewky they "are the experts" and are "hopeful" (not expectant) at best of finding "liquids". Do you seriously think that if there was any likelihood of there being anywhere remotely close to 155,155,272 barrels of Oil in the Jurassic, "the experts" would not have made just a bit more of it??? I think they might well have made some reference to it in the presentation don't you?!?!

So yes there may be some Oil shows. Commercially viable "liquids" in the form of Condensate? Maybe. Oil? Maybe But 155,155,272 barrels of Oil? Come on Drewky get back into the real world.

Dear oh dear.... :-(

Lol Drewky you never fail to take an opportunity to go overboard do you luvvy...

Me to CP and I would be ecstatic if there are commercial quantities of Oil and yes, Drewky I know that they have seen Oil shows in previous drills and have "targeted" liquids....Do you not remember the "liquids" that they discovered at NT2 and the reason that they did not drill deeper...? And again, yet no mention of it in the presentation. I think that is strong indication of their expectations of finding significant quantities of Oil.

So to your point Drewky "but you can discredit yourself and you continue to do so!" that is bloody rich coming from you, the man that goes from Oil shows at NT2 to extrapolating the Oil prospects for C1 as 155,155,272 barrels of Oil

Hyperbolic claptrap.

"The truth must be really painful to throw your reputation away like this." It isn't the truth that is painful Drewky it is your deliberate misrepresentation of it that grates. And as for my reputation? I don't think that highlighting your over optimistic expectations in any way threatens that and besides according to you that was lost a long time ago. Others however might consider that deliberate exaggeration and raising unrealistic expectations is a far more heinous offence.

Have a good day all :0)

Anybody done the calc? "If lower level 900bcf is #oil"

Anybody done the calc? "If lower level 900Bcf is #diamonds"

No mention of Diamonds in the presentation , oh and no mention of Oil either....... Conspicuous by it's absence in fact.

I suggest that you run this "advert" once the C1 spud date is announced Drewky you never know you might suck in some gullible punters.

Tarry, you propose "If the valve at Kiliwani has been replaced and we have now started actual remediation work...." Well as we all know we cannot start "actual remediation work" without the TPDC sign off - and I cannot see AEX missing a PR opportunity like that and not releasing an RNS for it... after all that would indeed be "material".

Very true Drewky and yes it would appear that the "terms" of the Ntorya Development and indeed our Farm-Out are still fluid. On the pipeline front I think the TPDC funding and building the pipeline is a bit of a double edged sword; we save a relatively small amount on up front development costs but will lose as much a $2 on the sale price (based on Orca figures) . The TPDC have obviously recognised that getting APT to fund the pipeline is a false economy.

What happened to APT funding any excess of the $35 million "carry sum" from 25% of their ongoing profit? As it happens I never thought we would get any of that sum back and this presentation goes to prove it; but who knows maybe they will change their mind again before the 30th November...

Oh, sorry forgot, one more very positive development; it would appear that all Ntorya related personnel costs will be back dated to 15th March...... :0)

Now quite how much that relates to is open to question but anything is better than nothing.