Member Info for CrustyPete

"but it seems they have the Ntorya field delineated well within the appraisal area note slide 11" - yes and that area is "well within" the total Mtwara PSA area.....

BG I wouldn't argue with your comments with the exception of "the development licence will cover the same area as the appraisal licence area".

This I disagree with - the Development Area covers the Ntorya Fan Basin area and some adjacent to that which is a smaller area within the larger Mtwara PSA. If you look at the whole Mtwara PSA the Ntorya Development area is basically the "slice" in the middle.

So once we have the Mtwara Extension part of that area will be granted (hopefully) a 25 Development License.

Maybe just semantics but in either event what Edgar was saying is wrong. The License extension may come but not necessarily with a development license and not for the same acreage....

Whetehr the Mtwara area comes as an Appraisal area or Exploration area I cannot be certain but as an exploration drilling has accounting benefits over appraisal drilling I am sure they will arrange the best outcome for AEX and shareholders (hence C1 being an exploration drill being beneficial for the partners).

And sorry be pedantic TB but we have carry (yes NOT "free carry") of $35m of $110 I am hoping we will eventually get $5 million as cash. Pity it wasn't more; for numerous reasons.

Moreover the extension of the Mtwara Appraisal License (now Exploration License due to the change in nature of the Chikumbi drill) and the application for the 25 Year development License are two totally separate issues. The Mtwara License extension is for an area considerably bigger than the total (though yet to be confirmed) area of the Development License application which covers only the area of the 8 proposed Ntorya Wells.

Who on earth are these people that look to you for "advice" on Aminex? They need their heads testing.

TB you say "Good entry point for new holders".... exactly TB, just think of the opportunity cost of being stuck here for the last 8/9 years. Absolutely no value provided to shareholders over that period whatsoever; someone buying today will make more money than any of us and have had use of those funds over the previous decade too. :-(

I would expect "financing" to be available yes. I would also expect that Solo would like to farm down some of the 25% for full carry on the remainder and at a 2P valuation that would likely give them a very healthy lump sum and then full carry through to full development for Ntorya.

Though as you know I fully expect that they will have to fund at least C2 and (maybe C3) (plus possibility of pipeline) before that income arrives - but that is just my opinion.

"C-1 drill and 3D seismic" and possibly (dependent on timing of C1drill and first income from EPS) C2, C3 and pipeline. Even if they start to get an income from EPS in Q1 2020 at only $1 million per month it would be many a month before they had stockpiled sufficient cash to cover their 25% obligation towards C2 & C3 etc.

If the EPS is delayed as a consequence of a late spud for C1 it may be Q2 or Q3 before EPS is flowing and plenty of time and opportunity for C2 & C3.

That said if they can avoid "cashing in" until the EPS is flowing they will be "quids in" with valuations as 2P Reserves Rather than as 2C resources. This is by far the best outcome.

Let's only hope they can hold out long enough.

Absolutely agree with that appraisal CP and, as you well know, I think we will be needing quite a bit of cash to maintain our 25% involvement all the way through to EPS..... Some, I know, would prefer to sell up after C1 (jaundiced with AEX and Tanzanian authorities) but I would prefer to optimise returns by cashing up when 2C assets have transformed to 2P assets and I believe we should all in our power to fund that continued involvement

I like your thinking there Drewky :0)

And good spot. Are you holding Volt Resources too?!

So Drewky as you suggest and I agree

"As the Farm-out is dependent on the licence being granted, there would be no point in calling an EGM without it...."

So the fact that they originally expected to hold an EGM in September would indicate that they also expected the License extensions to be granted in September too. So just they can be two months out with that expectation there is no guarantee that they wont be similarly wrong about "November".

It wouldn't be the first time would it? ;0)

That's a good spot pekingduck and you may well be right about it indicating more confidence on the date of the EGM; if so then it must surely mean that there has been some tangible progress on the license extension..... and that is more likely to be the reason for yesterday's rise I would suggest.

In either case, good news.

Well Drewky I certainly hope you are right and, thankfully, we will not have to wait too long to find out...... I just hope we are not disappointed yet again.

"Farm Out and EGM (Date reconfirmed three times) to take place by End November". just for clarity Drewky which is it that has been confirmed three times will take place before the end of November? Farm-Out or EGM? Or both?

EGM methinks and that confirmation is only an "expectation" I believe; as it was once an "expectation" that it would originally take place in September.

So that we have a "confirmed expectation" of an EGM in November would be a more accurate reflection of the situation methinks?

To what extent are the expectations of production at Ntorya from January 2020 dependent on the parallel expectation that C1 would be spudded in December 2018? Because that Spud date looks increasingly less likely to me and will every months delay push back the EPS production date by an equivalent amount? And, if so, if C1 is not spudded in December when is the next weather window?

Oh and by the way I already know the answer to the last question (if they cannot finish the drilling by March they may not be able to drill before end of May - early June) - but not the first. JB has suggested that pipeline construction would not take place until drill analysis has been completed and that pipeline completion would take 7/8 months. That would fit the original expectations of Drill December, Analysis April, Pipeline initiation April, completion November/December 2019... But with a May Spud date that would not.

And yes, I know,the TPDC needs production from Q1 2020 to meet its forward demand curve. That may be true but the TPDC does not control the weather.

Well as all AEX RNS's have to be vetted by TPDC it is not great surprise that they get leaked....

It certainly is good to see! Goodness me, we only need a bit more and both AEX and Solo could end up on the "leader board".....

Let's only hope it isn't another false dawn as we experienced only a week or so ago. :0)

If you actually had any inkling of the actual truth you would realise how ridiculous and offensive your accusations really are?

If you could actually prove your allegations I am sure you would BUT you can't.... and yet you assert them as the "truth". But then you really don't carte about the truth do you - just sling the mud anyway and hope it sticks

Ignorant arrogance personified.

So now Apache you are suggesting that he wasn't pumping and dumping prior to the AGM then but pumping and dumping on the NT2 drill spike....??

So Tiptop was responsible for the rise in shareprice from January to March then? From 2p to 7p? Bugger me and there was me thinking that it was all due to the hot money on the back of NT2 Spud.

What dreamworld do you live in Apache? Would you like to change your allegations again to make them remotely plausible Apache?

Actually just like me and many others Tiptop was very disappointed in the Spud results and regretted NOT getting out towards the top of the spike. The sp dropped all the way from the drill results to the AGM and then even further after the AGM... So Apache there was no Pump and certainly no dump.

I would be very glad to sup[port your story Apache, it would have been nice to know someone that actually got out with some good profits on the NT2 spike. Unfortunately I do not know anyone who did - including Tiptop.

"Stamp my feet and scream and shout"? Maybe Apache but then that is hardly the equivalent of making baseless accusations, with absolutely no justification, supporting information or even a coherent sorry and claiming those lies to be "truth"..... a fact that even an narcissistic arrogant arsehole would have to concede if they ever bothered to consider it.

Total nonsense. And if you are going to make such baseless allegations you need to get your facts right Apache. The only time in the last 7/8 years that the shareprice was anywhere close to 6p was in March 2017 10 months after the 2016 AGM and two months before the 2017...... your "evidence" falls apart upon even the most cursory of examination.

Oh and by the way I have been "around" for the whole of that time and unlike you I do base my opinions on fact.

Fool.

You have absolutely ZERO justification or evidence for that statement Apache and I know the reality. So the only place that there is "no doubt" is in your sad and sordid imagination.

Duped? No Apache you've been "doped". I know that you set no store in facts Apache but basing such assertions on baseless opinion and empty speculation is pure stupidity and makes you look a fool.