Member Info for CrustyPete

Circular cut off? Tuesday or Wednesday at the latest for the end of November EGM....

My view is that if we don't get it next Monday it wont happen in time for the end of November target date. And if not by then, then there is no chance of a 2018 C1 spud date. Even if we do get it the December spud date is still far from a certainty, indeed I cannot see it happening personally.

And what "IF" you had been struck by lightning, mugged or run over on every one of the last 100 times that you had left the house Drewky - would you still be willing to take that risk? Because, to extend the analogy, let's face it Aminex have been extraordinarily accident prone for the last 18 months and more; they have been hit by lightening (KN1 failure and subsequent remediation failure) mugged (the paltry $40 million FO offer) and run over (continued intransigence of the TPDC) - they have delivered nothing over that period despite making promising noises throughout. They continue to make the noises Drewky but still they fail to deliver anything.

I'll believe it when I see it Drewky and in the meantime those beers can wait; until the rain, the traffic, and the muggers have passed by. I have several millions of beers already and I can afford to wait.

Indeed BG it should be the first of many dominoes to fall - I just hope that they fall in quick succession and not in staccato.....

"I am sure you will pay more post licence than pre...." I presume you mean license extension? If so then whilst that is very logical CP it is not a given in my view and will depend on the length of time we have to wait for the C1 spud date and KN1 sign off and outcome. (It is not guaranteed to succeed) If both of these come in short order then you should be right but if neither of these occur before, say, end Jan then we could well see the sp back down at pre license extension levels.

So the earliest it could now be would be the 22nd/23rd November BG....

" It may not be practical but will it really matter if it is December or January? To me no it won't......"

But it may well make a difference to the SP Drewky as people are likely to sell (before Christmas) and buy back closer to the spud date (in January) in my view; and as CP has stated if not January then when? May/June?

As I have said before we may well get the Farm-Out before the end of the month (50:50 in my view as it is dependent on Tanz Gov't) but I cannot see there being a sufficient window to get the drill down before the end of Q4. Personally I am not worried if we slip to January either Drewky but any longer than that and it materially affects a lot of contingent developments.

I would hope that you are right BG but be just something to remember; when did we get the 19th December spud date for NT2? December 21st..... ;0)

Exactly CP

It is less than 9 CP. 14 days plus one day for the EGM itself, another for the day of the notification and at least one more day for those receiving notification by post.

By my reckoning that is next Tuesday; or 6/7 depending whether you include today.

A "full" contract would be material Drewky look at previous precedents (Kiliwani 1, NT1 and NT2) I would agree that a contract with a contingency is probably not "material" until that contingency is met - which is likely to be November? And that is the point Drewky they will not start mobilisation until end of November. Insufficient time to get to Spud before the year end.

Bye bye.

Oh I see so we have signed a Rig Contract but the BoD have decided not to tell us yet?

And yes "If it was me a "subject to" contract would have already been signed for immediate mobilisation on notification" I would do the same Drewky but if "notification" is dependant on Farm-Out completion that probably means end of November at the very best. And I remind you that NT2 drill was mobilised on the 18th October; it was 8/9 weeks after that that the Spud was initiated.

But enough, I am now late :0(

What do you mean it depends where the rig is? We are told they haven't even selected it yet, let alone signed a contract, let alone mobilised it.... I doubt it can be any closer than 1500 yards away and that took from 18th October to 21 December to set up and drill.

So CP,what is your answer? How can we Spud C1 in December unless the Rig is already mobilised and on it's way to Chikumbi? And yet we are told that we have not signed a Rig contract yet? Square that circle please.....

We can't possibly drill before the end of the year or the AEX BoD are lying through their teeth? Which is it?

CP are you seriously suggesting that people ought to put any store whatsoever in that meaningless fact!?!

So just to put it into some perspective CP, for NT2 the Drill contract was signed on 23rd September and the Rig was mobilised on the 18th October. I will willingly point out that I said months ago that the Rig contract was already "in the bag" and the whole rig tender rigmarole was a total pantomime - the Rig contract was long since sorted out and to a Zubair owned or connected company. But even so it took AEX 6 weeks to get the rig from NT1 to NT2 and set it up and get it safety checked and it was only 1500 yards away....

Unless the AEX BoD are lying through their teeth (not for the first time) we have no contract, no Rig and it certainly hasn't been mobilised as yet. How on earth are they going to do that between the end of November and the end of the year?

"Oh of course they can Crusty, all this has been going on behind the scenes...." Oh so they have been lying to us then about the rig contract then? And if they can lie to us about that why oh why do you trust that the end of November Farm-Out or the C1 Spud date is any less of a lie? Oh let's not get too slanderous, let's not say lie, let's say wishful thinking....

And sorry but with that I really must go!!

Good night all, see you all next week.

I can see why you would say that Drewky but I beg to differ; we have not been informed that the TPDC have signed off on the KN1 remediation work programme and I am sure that if they had we would have been told about it (similarly the $6.93 million claim incidentally). And whilst we have not been told that the C1 spud will be late I struggle to see how we can mobilise and prepare a drill between the end of November and end of December - unless it is already in the advanced stages (which I will admit is a possibility but again we have not been informed that is the case). We haven't even been told that we have chosen and signed a Rig! Or maybe that too is part of the new policy of doing things behind the scenes but keeping it from the shareholders until they have no choice but to reveal it?

In either event it stinks.

I would love to believe your optimism is well founded but let's just say that the experience of 8 years of Aminex management's smoke and mirrors leads me to believe otherwise. They are the first to come out with positive news when they have it but love to bury bad news... as we have heard nothing for ages I suspect prevarication.

I hope I am wrong and there is little point speculating - we will find out soon enough.

But much as I would love to stay and chat I have to go now, travelling home soonish.

Have good weekend all and good luck with that Monday RNS prediction Drewky.

GLA

Agreed Drewky but , in my view, simply having the license extension and Farm-Out by themselves will not double the price. It will be the spud that creates the excitement because of the hot money and hot money does not move for a long term ride... And for them a long term ride is anything longer than a few weeks ! ;0)

Well that is your expectation BG and I will agree that we ought to get a rise but "double"? Not in my book and even then that assumes that both the Farm-Out happens in November and the Spud occurs in December. If either are late I think they will get cheaper and if both are late, cheaper still. Moreover if the November deadline is missed it will surely impact the spud date for C1 and if they miss that January window there is no telling how long we will wait. Do you think the price will hold then? But the bottom line is that I believe that even if we get a November Farm-out getting the C1 spud initiated in December is a tall order and if we are forced to wait I think we can expect the spike on the farm-out to be short lived....

But hey that is only my opinion. If I am right I will be buying some more post Farm-Out and before the spud and if I am wrong and any Farm-Out rise is sustained it doesn't matter as I have several millions already :0)

Oh just like the last 52 weekends Drewky? With AEX it is always "next Monday" ;0)

Even if it does happen there will still be plenty of time to get in before the C1 spud at a good price and if no news on either of the next two Mondays there will be opportunities to buy it even cheaper....

The closest since then was the 29.9% sale to ARA. They kept that pretty tight too....

Years ago maybe but that was the only comparable event - the last time that AEX was engaged in a farm-out....