Member Info for CrustyPete

CP, who asked the question? "Any news on whats gappening with the licences"?

Whilst you wont get an argument from me about the 25 Dev License, surely without knowing the source of the question it is risky to make assumptions. Maybe they were referring to the Mtwara and Lindi Licences or more broadly about all Gas License sxtensins that are up for review....

I use a number of sites other than LSE and none of those had us finishing Blue.... is it only LSE?

Yes GL it does include weekends except in calculating the "delivery time" but ignoring tgat and despite what Drewky said the 14 days has to be 14 "clear days". Which means tgat it cannot include the day of notification nor the day of the EGM.... which means even ignoring the debate about digital or postal delivery the last day tgat it was possible to make an announcement in time for the end of November was Wednesday.

If we get an RNS tomorrow we could concievably have an EGM on Monday 3rd December.... if you ignore the 48 hour delivery requirement...

Pedantic i know so apologies.

Interesting?! Why so? There is nothing he is allowed say that can possibly be of any value until it becomes "public knowledge"...... What is he going to say "The EGM will be the 14th December"? "The C1 Spud has been deferred until May"? "The AEX BoD have had a whip round and have managed to scrape up enough for a X-Large can of WD40 to "unstick" the valve"?

No it would be some trite meaningless phrase like "JB is expecting all AEX shareholders to have a wonderful New Year"

Anyway whenever we do get an EGM it is likely that we will have to hold it in a marquee in Green Park. Where oh where are they going to get a room sufficient for 150 people in Central London or Dublin in December with only two weeks notice....?!?!

The market hasn't lost confidence because there are some out there that actually think we might still see an EGM before the end of November, MAX!

Unfortunately that is no longer the case and once the penny drops it won't take long for people to vote with their feet. That is unless the BoD come out and give the market reason to hang on, give them an alternative date, give them another straw to cling on to.

As I have said a few times this week, a week or two's delay makes no material difference but if we get to the end of the month without an EGM date I think we will see that "confidence" that you refer MAX to drain away. The day that the EGM /Farm-Out delay seem likely to compromise the December/ January C1 spud date will be a bad day. Fortunately that day is still two weeks (three at a push) away yet.

"when does Jay arrive in Tazns?"

I could not possibly be drawn on a definitive answer Killerwhale it must surely depend on when the TPDC or the Tanzanian Cabinet "sign it off"...

Hey, maybe he will be taking a new valve out with him? :0)

Well FWIW AOI I believe that both Company's will do very well over the next 18 months but in the short term Solo has the greater prospects. If you look at the NT2 analogy at the peak of their own "spikes" AEX reached 7.5p and Solo (the equivalent of) 18p. Since then AEX has effectively crystalized 66% of their asset and hence the possible upside that goes with it for $5 million and $35 million of credit; moreover they did so before converting that from a 2C resource to a 2P reserve. Solo on the other hand still holds the same asset that it did during the NT2 spud and will be able to hold on to it until after the C1 drill and (in all likelihood) the 25 Development License approval, at which point they have stated that they will be monetising that asset and paying the proceeds to shareholders as a "special dividend".

On this basis I believe Solo has the greater upside on the short term horizon events - as both AEX and Solo hold the same "value" (25%) of Ntorya assets and yet Solo has only 20% of the market cap (the difference between £70 million and £13 million more than covers the $40 million AEX have in "the bank"). On the longer term scenario AEX looks the better placed as they are fully funded to FFD of Ntorya and with the prospect of $40 million pa income; Solo on the other hand still have to find the funds to cover that - if of course they actually don't cash up after the C1 drill.(Which is a distinct prospect)

Once upon a time AEX operated at a premium to Solo on the basis that they were the operator of the Tanzanian Licenses but, of course, after the Farm-Out they will concede that status to APT for their principal asset - Ntorya. AEX will of course still be the operator of Kiliwani but whilst it is producing nothing that doesn't really amount to much....

One or two points for discussion: note the reference in your quote CP of "exploration license" as opposed to an "appraisal license". Moreover it is not a "new" application but an the extension of an existing application

Chikumbi 1 is, we are told,an Exploration Well (due to the exploratory nature of drilling the Triassic/Jurassic levels) and yet the original Mtwara License was an Appraisal License. When we get an extension of the Mtwara Licence will it be Appraisal or Exploration - or is the Chikumbi 1 complication meaning a new license and / or separate / additional application process?

We have been told since the AGM that the Farm-Out would be complete by November and the AGM was in early July? So a 60 day application process would suggest that it hadn't even been initiated by the time of the AGM? Moreover the license has been "out of date" since December 2017 and we renamed NT3 in April.Additionally were told that we applied for an extension in 2017!!

So how can it be 60 days CP? Unless our BoD have been feeding us crap all this time?

My conclusion? No timescales are worth the paper they are written on when it comes to Tanzanian licensing....

Of course they have Drewky, we have had seen four spikes in recent weeks all of which have, to a greater or lesser extent fizzled out over the next few days. The MM's are thinking, "is this number five?".... they will ramp it up to make sure that they get top dollar for any that they are selling and then drop it back just as quickly if/when they are forced to take them back... It's not rocket science

It cannot be "instead of" as they cover different acreages and areas - the Ntorya Development area is but a small part of the larger Appraisal area (unless that too is changing as part of the extension - but I do not see this). I do not think they will necessarily come as part of the same announcement but I expect the Dev License to follow hard on the heels of the License Extension, yes. License Extension, EGM, shareholder approval, Farm-Out, 25 Dev License and Spud date - would be my guess....

Anyway must fly - have some meetings to attend for the rest of the day.

GLA

We do not know enough about the resource to make a judgement in my view CP. The range and location of the entire Jurassic layer may not even necessarily fall within the same development area....! There may be contingency within the 25 Year Dev License for the resource (Gas) BUT as you yourself have stated they may find Oil (I don't think so) and that is likely to require a whole different approach and indeed a separate development license in my view...

And NO I do not think that the 25 Development License is dependent on the C1 drill - I think it is just as likely to be the other way round; the C1 drill is dependent on the 25 year Development license. That is certainly what the Zubair's would argue.

Contrarily CP I do not thinkthat the 25 Development Licence is the slightest bit contingent on the Jurassic levels; whatever these p[rovide wilbe a bonus. IO put in a 25 Development License application based soley on what was known at the time of the submission and the CPR that they provided at the time - and both of those totally ignored the Jurassic....

And just to make it perfectly clear MAX -p; I never used the word "bribe" at the AGM..... that was the "panel's" interpretation of what I said.....

What I was insinuating was subtly different (that they would get their rewards "post Aminex") but I wasn't going to argue with their interpretation ;0)

So please explain Matherdj how that can possibly be the case? It is in black and white - if you read Drewky's post of earlier today it is self-evident that there is now insufficient time for the AEX BoD to issue a notification of a date for the EGM with a sufficient notice pweriod for it to take place in November. It is that straightforward so yes, dunder is quite correct for Camarco to say anything else would be impossible as it would contradict the Company's last official statement. But nevertheless that statement can no longer be true, it is that straightforward.

Week commencing 3rd December? Yes maybe and would it be a disaster if it was a week late? NO, not in my opinion but the fact remains the BoD will be missing another estimated target date and the Camarco statement is a "white lie".... Or an outright LIE dependent on your position.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JDaD2G9xjMc

;0)

I believe that IO and GE/Hughes were far more instrumental in the background advice and guidance on the Application process; certainly from the noises emanating from the BoD at the time....

I don't read anything in to it; the BoD are probably siting there trying to work out what the appropriate response ought to be. They are as dependant on the license extension as the rest of us. They surely have to have given up hope on the "end of November" EGM expectation but until or unless they have been given alternative assurances re dates for the Licence Extension they are probably better off saying nothing rather than just guessing....

If the License Extension had already been approved I am sure we would have seen it in yesterday's or today's trading; anything TPDC/Govt related usually leaks like a sieve.... So I fear that I can see no way now that the "end of November" is a possibility.

Maybe first week in December? Maybe even second week in December? After that it is "squeaky bottom time".

The clock is ticking. Two weeks grace and then Armageddon!! Where is Ronny Boy when you need him?!? LOL :0)

Maybe BG, maybe. Here's hoping...

Sorry, but I meant to say - there is still time yet before COB.

Though if the License Extension had been approved I am sure we would have seen it in yesterday's or today's trading; anything TPDC/Govt related usually leaks like a sieve....