Member Info for CrustyPete

But just quickly,

"If by next week we haven't had an announcement then we will be entitled to throw the dummy out the pram..."

Farm-Out is important of course but C1 spud is far more important in SP terms. I have said I believe the end Nov farm out date to be 50:50 but "on time" or "late" it is what happens after that that will determine the short term sp in my view. Though "late" would not be good that is very true but more so because of how it may impact subsequent events.

"This situation is under the control of the Tanzanian government and for people to keep blaming the Bod for that is both pathetic and naïve."

I am not blaming the BoD Drewky but that is NO reason for it to be a "Strong Buy" either for goodness sake, it is for that very reason that "deadlines" have been missed, developments have not taken place and income has been exhausted - and they are the reasons to be sceptical about making "Strong Buy" assertions, believing blindly that the current Q4 targets will be met and absolutely NO reason to be pillorying anyone that doesn't happen to join the "happy clappy" Club.

But enough, life too short and my lunchtime is up....

GLA

No Drewky you have it wrong - I am explaining to you why I am a HOLD. That was your question and that was my answer.... And that is the difference Drewky that is the reason that I have not been buying since the AGM and continue to "sit on my hands" - unlike you who has been a strong buy since then and who has been suggesting to all and sundry that they too should be buying...

And that is exactly why anyone with any sense or who looks beyond their own interests to would appreciate exactly why "
"You believe there is bloody good money to be made here"

and

"I do believe they will happen eventually and when they do we should see some good upside." Are NOT the same thing.

But please Drewky continue along in your own version of reality if that's what keeps that inane grin on your face ;0)

That is a gross but convenient oversimplification Drewky but self evidently you cannot work with anything a little more complex or that contradicts your particular agenda...

Well I am sorry about that but yes, I will enjoy the rest of my day.

And since when was I predicting Armageddon? Oh and don't waste your time Drewky you won't find it - but hey when did inconvenient facts spoil your own simple understanding of the world eh Drewky?

Bye for now ;0)

How many times have I got to answer the same question Drewky. I will try and make it as simple as I can so that you will not have to ask again.

I do believe that once all the hurdles have been crossed there is some good upside here but as you say I have been a "HOLD" since the AGM; Why is that Drewky because just as I predicted after the AGM the continued delays, obfuscation and disappointments that have plagued us over the last 18 months are set to continue before those hurdles are likely to be crossed and for all of the same reasons. I will also admit that had I expected the sp to fall to these current levels I would probably have sold out entirely after the AGM as TipTop did; I admit that I didn't expect the decline to be so drastic and nor I didn't have somewhere else to put it.... A lesson learned.

The longer we wait the further the sp will fall and I have no confidence in the BoD's assertions regarding the dates for Farm-Out or C1 spud for reasons I have also explained several times - would you like me to repeat them Drewky? If I am correct I fear that the share price demise will continue. If we have had no material developments before Christmas I will likely buy more in the New Year (though see below) as I do believe they will happen eventually and when they do we should see some good upside. Though I do not think that the levels that we once aspired to are any longer realistic and any delays could further erode that upside.

(I may however choose to spend whatever capital I have on Solo rather than AEX as they still have the same value of assets that had when we spudded NT2 whereas we have traded 66% of our assets for $5 million and some $35 million of credit so they have far greater upside in my view {proportionately I mean}. Moreover whilst once upon a time the benefit of AEX over Solo was they were the Operator of the Ruvuma PSA but after the farm-out they no longer will be)

So Drewky sorry but this is the last time I will answer this particular question - have you got it now?

Oh and moreover BG their gas doesn't go into the same Songo Songo GPP...

But BG that was equally true throughout the whole of 2018 and 2017....

So BG "I don't see the TPDC deliberately holding back on perforating the lower section".... really BG? Well maybe not but then, if so, what has been their excuse for the last 18 months? They didn't trust the AEX BoD's previous hair brained schemes; what happened to Compression (we were told their were two compressors in the country)? What about the TPDC lowering the inlet pressures to the GPP as was the BoD's story last December?

Whatever the truth may be BG I don't believe any of the bollocks that we have been fed for the last 18 months regarding KN1; and if it was actually all true the only conclusion that it is possible to make (in my view) is that the TPDC have been deliberately obstructive in the attempt to so disable AEX that they had no choice but to run into the protective arms of their "cornerstone investor". And until the FO deal is irreversible and the majority of the uplift has been transferred to the Zubairs the TPDC will keep the pressure on.

I am not suggesting that the TPDC are unaware of the work that AEX are doing on the Valve and gas pressures BG, I admit that suggestion would be unsupportable - the difference is that it is not "down the hole" work and so does NOT require TPDC sign off to initiate or complete. On the other hand the "down the hole" work does.

So by all mean continue with your argument but it has been stated many a time that the KN1 remediation work needs TPDC approval and unless I have missed it we have not been told that this approval has been granted; so until I am told by the AEX BoD (it is a material and price sensitive matter that would justify an RNS) that we have that approval and using Drewky's usual line of "if the BoD hasn't said it, it cannot possibly be true" I am happy to maintain my position.

Bye for now all.

I did justify my figure Drewky at the time that it was relevant - I arrived at the figure of $3 million per %age point based on the Orca - Swala farm out. That farm-out was largely (but not exclusively) for 2P assets hence the $3m was assuming that we had a 25 Year Dev License to justify the valuation. That is why I was constantly asking the "WHY NOW?" question Drewky. But we now know why don't we - we have been hjt by lightening, run over by the TPDC and as a consequence "mugged" by the Zubairs.

However Drewky it wasn't me that was swerving - I am not questioning YOUR valuation Drewky just the complete "volte face" that you have conveniently performed when questioned on the $40 million valuation that even YOU have complained was a low ball figure in the past BUT you now conveniently forget; indeed you now claim the opposite...

But sorry, Drewky not swerving but have work to do.

Maybe back this evening.

GLA

So Drewky NO swerve just another case of you choosing then avoid the issue in question and deflecting it with a total irrelevant argument that suits YOUR purposes.

"one or two points here, "the Company has commenced remediation work on the well. The Company initially plans to repair a faulty valve during the current quarter, which is expected to allow for gas to flow from the well and evaluate operational parameters at the reservoir and gas processing facility", (the gas processing facility)? now you can't tell me that this is being done with-out the backing, support and consent of the TPDC. "

Yes BG I can - AEX do not need TPDC approval to mend a valve - they need TPDC approval to do any remediation work, re-enter the well and to complete the workover.

I am not laughing at your valuation Drewky only the fact that having given that as a valuation you can then claim to be content with the one that we were subsequently offered....

But whatever life's too short for this pointless conversation.

Once the farm-out goes through that may be different but before that they haven't got a leg to stand on.

Well with specific reference to the Rig contract I think that something of a side issue as it has been in the bag for months anyway BUT as an LSE member and still having to operate in shareholders interests claiming "ignorance" is no defence.... They should have to insist on being updated so that the BoD can update the market.

"Remediation failure: Who told you that? Christmas is the date we were told it would be completed by and we haven't got there yet."

Well hold on to your dreams then Drewky but prepare yourself for disappointment - we have yet to be told that the remediation programme has received the TPDC ascent and without that we can do nothing. Are you seriously suggesting that if we had got sign off we would not have informed the market? Seriously? That is not a "material event" in your considered view? It would not be "price sensitive" information? If so you really ought to wake up...

"Run Over: A Government is a government the world over and if you think a little company like Aminex can tell a government when to jump then you are more naïve than I would ever have believed you to be"

Where oh where have I suggested anything of the sort?! I am suggesting the opposite that BECAUSE Aminex cannot do a damn thing without pleasuring the TPDC they are totally impotent... so it has been for 18 months and there is no indication that it will change in the future; hence the exact reason that you can go whistle for your KN1 remediation by Christmas Drewky.

"In yours and a few others opinion we may have, but not all of us see it that way and your opinion is no more valid than those that think otherwise" Correct Drewky and remind me what was your estimate of the Farm Out price per % age point? $5 million was it.. But now you are satisfied with $5 million and another payment on the "never never"...

LOL priceless!!

With I will have to go and do some work to stop myself laughing.

I absolutely agree on the last point and indeed you may be correct in your inference that there is a lot going on in the background that we are being kept in the dark about (I have been of the opinion that the Rig contract has been in the bag since April/May time) but surely if the Rig has already been mobilised AEX has an obligation to notify the market - they are still nominally the "operators" of the (currently non-existent) License....

Oh, that is of course unless you are one of those 29.9% shareholders....

"then you must continue to live in the cloud of your own painting until the global warming gets rid of the rains, the muggers are all locked up and the green party has put an end to transport."

Oh about the same length of time as it will take Aminex to actually deliver some shareholder value then Drewky... ;0)

6 weeks, 8 weeks whatever it is you can bet that good old Aminex will do their best to over promise and underdeliver....

Circular cut off? Tuesday or Wednesday at the latest for the end of November EGM....

My view is that if we don't get it next Monday it wont happen in time for the end of November target date. And if not by then, then there is no chance of a 2018 C1 spud date. Even if we do get it the December spud date is still far from a certainty, indeed I cannot see it happening personally.