Member Info for CrustyPete

Don't forget BowLeven CP no leaks there - and look what happened to that.... So it is not peculiar to the Zubairs

Or more likely the cauldron has not been fixed, it is simply a case of their being nothing in it to leak out....?

Anyway CP when has anyone driven a cauldron, even the Zubairs?

Sir Robert as I am sure you are only too aware once you get past a certain age you have to have suffer these indignities fairly regularly.... though they rarely need a team to do so, just a rubber glove and a little lubrication.

That may be an issue Drewky if you were born and bred in Rome ;0)

CP I accept that the spread has widened since yesterday's close and does not really mean a thing but nor does your argument hold water either as you well know. The last BUY was at 2:30 - two hours before the close and before circa 200K of sells, so cannot really be considered as representative of a closing "price" either. The next BUY will be more revealing.

No CP, apologies that was not a serious suggestion. I know you far better than that - I should have made it clear that I was pulling your leg with a - ;0)

So to anyone reading this - NO! I am not having a pop at CP....

Separately though I do firmly believe that whilst we might have a rally on the AEX Farm-Out news (only if it occurs before the end of November) it could be short lived if the C1 get's delayed and as I have said before I now think it highly unlikely for the C1 spud to occur before the year's end as previously forecast....

CP, Drewky doesn't need a new "reverse list" the one he has been using for months has been doing the trick perfectly well.... ;0)

Post the list again Drewky we need another 0.5p off the ask!!

Just one question CP, have you identified another target investment that you want to get into within the next two weeks? You seem very intent on getting people to plough into both AEX and Solo before the end of next week...

Even if they do get the Farm-Out completed by the end of November I am pretty sure that there will be chances to get back into both shares before the C1 spud date at a similar price.... particularly if they don't manage to spud in December

Yes CP and in my book 14 days equates to two weeks and 92 days equates to three months but hey, why sweat the small stuff...?

I would rather it be tomorrow than this time next week otherwise I am likely to miss the excitement; I will be in France.

I would agree on the point of NR not being someone to bet your mortgage on BG but it makes some sense - from ARA's ? Zubair's perspective certainly.

"Ntorya 3 is not dependent on a 25 year development licence" BUT the NT3 drill (C1) is TOTALLY dependant on the Farm-Out and that may well be dependant on the Dev License Approval and if so all of the remaining points on your list are equally dependant on it too....

""AEX committed to drilling Ntorya 3 in 2H18 subject to finding a suitable rig" - No Farm-Out no drill BG, the Rig is an irrelevance; for goodness sake they finished the tender process in June and have since admitted that they have identified two suitable rigs. Why no commitment yet? Farm-Out dependant.

License Extension = Farm-Out = Rig selection = C1 spud date = Drill analysis = Dev License approval = pipeline construction? And the start of that process is still dependant on the Tanzanian Govt and therefore could be anytime (weeks or months?).

Or it could be

License extension & Development License Approval = Farm-Out = Rig selection = Spud Date = Pipeline construction? And nothing has changed except now the first two steps in this process are dependant on the Tanzanian Govt and therefore could be anytime (weeks or months?).

edgar the Mtwara License extension is not the issue here, that is totally transparent. AEX have stated that there can be no Farm-Out) without a License extension (and in my view that is exactly why we are still waiting and why we may not meet the November target date). What we are talking about here is the 25 year Development License Approval.... Which will come first? Base on the NR conversation I have long held it will be the Dev License and as this requires Govt Approval could still be a long way off.

I may of course be wrong and those that suggest that we will see Farm-Out (and maybe C1 drill results) first will be proved correct and if so, and as the AEX BoD have indicated it is only the License Extension that is holding things up. I hope so but past performance convinces me that either the BoD just do not understand the contingencies or deliberately choose to conceal them from shareholders (at least some shareholders - circa 66% of them)....

Agreed Mather and "bargaining chip" is hardly the right phrase to characterise the real relationship methinks. It feels far more like a "shotgun wedding" and it is the TPDC that are holding the shotgun....with KN1 sign off, License Extensions, Dev License approval, TPDC $6.93 million claim are all simply the ammunition.

It was once suggested by NR (in conversation) that the Zubairs would not sign the Farm-Out deal until and unless the 25 year Dev License had been approved; others have suggested that it is the other way round and that the License will not be approved until after the Farm-Out has been signed sealed and delivered. They may of course come at (roughly) the same time.....

It will be interesting to see the eventual outcome as this will be quite revealing in who it is actually "calls the shots" here.

And one thing is 100% obvious and that is it isn't Aminex.

12th/13th GL. 14 days not to include the date sent and date of the EGM and allowing for postage for those that are not "online"....

CP none of the forecasts for future energy demand that I have seen make any allowance for the Gas due to be exported to Unganda through the pipeline. I would assume that at some stage the Tanzanian Govt will have to have an eye on the supplies needed in "filling" that pipeline.....

Quite right BG, thank you and apologies. It was lazy of me not to check (though limited time) I thought that the area that Orca has licences over was West SongoSongo but indeed is just SongoSongo.

Now I must get back on the road.

GLA

Well this is my first look in for a day or two and it seems my absence hasn't triggered an RNS quite yet; just as well that I am away for another day or two ;0)

Yes TB quite right. Following on from a conversation earlier this week - looks like Orca are looking to develop their nearshore assets....

It was really good to see another rise today and no surprise that the edge was taken off it at the close. Will this rise stick? This one will be the acid test - the third in as many weeks. If it holds it bodes well but the reverse is also true....

Probably needs some help to hold. A leak or, better still, some concrete progress. License extension anyone? As I am away until Thursday and largely without PC access during that period I wouldn't be surprised to see something positive revealed.

Good night all and good luck for the next 72 hours. I will pop my head in if the chance presents itself. :0)

That would require a lot of assumptions Drewky but the pipeline build would be the main one and that would totally depend upon the TPDC giving it a start date - maybe 8 months after that? As for the Orca workovers, again it would depend on whether they were conducted in parallel or in series... in parallel 3/4 months from start date, in series 9 -12 months BUT why would you start that unless you knew that you were going to have a route to market for the gas. Hence the catch 22 scenario - the work itself may not take long but when, oh when would the TPDC give them the keys to the safe and grant them approval to build a pipeline (assuming that Orca were to fund and build it) and the approve the work programme for the workover's? Let alone grant them a GSA.

So in truth Drewky it is difficult to predict with any confidence as Orca have pretty much the same contingencies as AEX for KN1 remediation and the Madimba pipeline etc. How long would it take AEX to drill Kilwani South? Not long but without a pipeline or the commitment of the TPDC to approve one why or when would you drill it? On a handshake with the TPDC? After what has happened over the last 12-18 months? Orca have been similarly treated but for maybe slightly different reasons.

Drewky, Orca? Currently 102 MMscf/d limted by Songo Songo GPP and pipeline. Capability of 155 now and 180 MMscf/d with three workovers, all needing to be connected to new pipeline and, of course, covered by a GSA.... Sinmilar to AEX in that respect but they they do not need to "find" the gas, they just need to connect it up and get paid for it.

Between Orca and M&P capacity of circa 310 MMscf/d with a bit of development. But then of course the rest requires the TPDC/ govt to enable it.

They will certainly need to go some to get to 400 and 500 MMscf/d by 2022 - let's hope that Jurassic layer plugs the hole. That or Nyuni/ Kiliwani Sth eh?!