Member Info for CrustyPete

Or NOT as the case may be.... ;0)

Or, even staying on the James Bond theme: "Tomorrow never comes"

Only joking!! :0)

Well I hope you don't have to wait as long as we have to get that signed off GL.....

Apologies CP, I meant to say that originally they stated that the "circular would be out before the end of November"...

I must point out that whilst the statement that you have highlighted CP has since been amended (on the website) I will point out that in your statement they do say that the EGM will be held "prior to the end of November".

There is still a lot of November yet to go.

I will struggle to get the time off work between now and Christmas I am afraid.... But if the EGM happens after Christmas then I am sure to be there Drewky !! ;0)

Happy to oblige Drewky....

Good morning all, it seems I have missed an interesting and exciting few days. Never mind there is always next week - hopefully even more exciting and eventful :0)

Oh and intowin I am afraid you are incorrect - the 14 days notice that is required excludes the day of notification and the day of the EGM itself. It also has to allow an extra day or two for those shareholders that are not connected digitally and receive notification by post. Hence a circular next Friday will NOT be soon enough to get the EGM before the end of November. COB Tuesday is the cut-off by my reckoning....

Oh I intend to TB... on the DLR now ;0)

Plus any issues that may have existed they have had over 15 months to correct and those corrections and augmented plan will have been "approved" by both the TPDC and PURA before being sent to the Cabinet and Minister for subsequent approval....

Correct BG, moreover the principal reason that AEX hired IO (GE Hughes) was to not only create the Commercial Plan but also to use their significant 'local and technical expertise' and their experience and understanding of the Tanzanian govt and application processes to avoid the very issues that you are referencing dunder....

Anyway one and all must be leaving office soon, so bye for now.

FWIW I largely agree with Drewky and CP on most of the issues raised this morning. Firstly the EGM circular is not "late" until it is late and that is not (by my reckoning) until next Tuesday and as well know from past performance our BoD do like to leave things to the 11th hour so I have never expected anything before next week. I only hope that if they cannot hit that target they do give us a revised timeline otherwise the speculation of "failed this" and "failed that" will be rife and the sp will surely suffer BUT until then the sp is holding well and I am hopeful.

The EGM circular is certainly dependent on the License Extension and I, like Drewky, also believe that it will require a firm indication that the 25 Development License has been tacitly approved at the very least if not approval itself and I do think that if not released at the same time the approval should follow quickly there
after - the caveat being as, I belkive BG suggests the Govt will want to see the C1 drill results first....? I do not think this likely as it would necessarily delay the mobilisation of the pipeline development project until next April at the earliest. But here is the rub, as CP has said there are no firm timelines for this and "indications" have a propensity to slide (which has always been my fear).

I am one of those that believe what Drewky has asserted; we have been "squeezed" and that the reason we cannot meet the financial obligations associated with the proposed 25 Development Plan is because the TPDC have ensured that our income stream from KN1 has been turned off. However I also believe that the reason for this is the TPDC and Govt's requirement for this accelerated development programme which, with the best will in the world, AEX was never going to be able to fund with or without Kiliwani income. The idea that AEX could find $105 million over what could end up being only 2/3 years is somewhat fanciful - there was no-one out there that would or could take a risk on them. OR a possible, alternative explanation is that our cornerstone investor was never going to allow it!!??

Will be off line for much of the rest of the week - probably back on Friday afternoon but will look in when I can.... I am in France from tomorrow so maybe that RNS will come in the morning?

Good luck all.

Oh deary me and I thought we had finished this conversation but true to form dear old Drewky can't leave it alone can he; full of self righteous indignation as always.....

GOVERNMENT IN CONTROL

Do you not understand that answer?

"the BOD has simply not got there finger out as we all seen for ourselves"

Do you not understand that it wasn't even a question?

So may be "rebutts" is a better term than "answers" Drewky?

But since you seem determined to to force the issue perhaps you can explain how your three word mantra "answers" or "rebutts" (choose your own) the rest of jonesey's "question" Drewky..

"my concern is (DELAYS) and this is worrying me from dipping back in and there will be nervous investors here as the dawn is nigh, ........................., but the sands of time are slipping away and no one will real confidents (sic) based on track records can 100% say this is in the bag, if and only when if the contract is signed will liftoff commence, but any delays may put pressure on the SP"

No, of course not, Drewky it doesn't answer anything it simply underlines precisely why he has every justification for being concerned.

"all I see is a man picking flies..." - in which case you really do need to clean your rose tinted spectacles.

So "FFS" yourself Drewky - it seems you need that alcohol a lot more than I do.... go and calm down a little eh?

No more from me tonight that is a certainty.

Good night and good luck all - maybe tomorrow will be the day.

Here's hoping.

"I liken the Zubairs in this instance to a top class salesman. "

Well that is surely undeniable - they certainly have done a good sales job on you!

That is not an answer Drewky it is simply a statement and one that, in fact, supports and justifies everything that Jonah has said....

I am not giggling Drewky I am lost for words... the way you think simply beggars belief.

Oh dear oh dear - so you say you don't want an argument and then you come back (for a second time) with this..

"As we are going to target $40m cash revenue /annum let's assume just 2 years behind (I'm inclined to think longer) so that's worth $80m start plus the 40 effectively giving us a value of $120m for the 50%. That is only 20% less than your own valuation and though still lower it is not exactly the Yorker you feel that it is imo."

I have no choice.

Your logic logic is totally flawed Drewky - you are seemingly suggesting that the Zubairs are doing us a favour by relieving us of 50% of our asset because we will earn $40 million a year rather sooner than we would be able to earn it ourselves and that we are being "compensated" by earning income from our own assets...?! Using your logic we are being paid out for our 50% holding with our own money!! Moreover you are suggesting that we are better off earning $40 million per annum by 2020 rather than $120 million by, say 2023/5? (Plausible) And that the $80 million a year that the Zubairs will be earning as a consequence of this deal is worth no more than a $5 million up front payment and our share of the costs?

Zubairs will be earning $80 million a year after FFD Drewky and it will have cost them no more than $120 million all in: yet AEX shareholders will be giving that $80 million up for $5 million now and $35 million of credit.... Well I know who has got the better of that negotiation Drewky. They will get all of their (post farm-out) investments costs back within 18 months of production based on your assumptions - AEX shareholders will get their decade long investment back when? 2-4 years time?

Well with logic like that Drewky you could convince yourself of just about anything. Goodness me. Remind me never to rely on you to negotiate on my behalf.

But at the end of the day it is not about whether we have a good deal or a bad deal - because of the events of the last 18- 24 months the reality is that it is the ONLY deal - due to AEX being struck by lightening, run over and mugged.... Oh look, deja vu, all over again!

I have no comment to make on your valuation reasons Drewky nor was I asking for them but as you had asked for mine I gave you those too. My issue was that having come up with a valuation many multiples above the one we had been offered it strikes me as perverse then to claim that the figure we were offered was not a low ball offer. Not least because you have acknowledged it to be a disappointing offer yourself subsequently.

You have since suggested that the offer was acceptable because (to summarise) it brought forward the day that we earn income from our remaining 25%. Well that to me is no argument not to get paid a "fair" price for those assets in the first place and bringing forward the date that we earn an income does not adequately compensate us for that initial valuation. (And that even ignores the fact that we will only get $5 million to spend as we like..)

But again and to your point I have no desire to make an argument of it. We have been there many times.

What about it?

" behave in a contradictory way" I see absolutely nothing contradictory about it - umpteen reasons why not to buy now. What is contradictory about that and having a HOLD position?

The only people to whom it seems contradictory it appears are those whose interests or opinions do not agree with it.

And whilst I happily accept that you may not have a Strong Buy because of the Government it seems to be a little negligent to ignore their malign influence over events of the last 18 months and to presuppose that it will all miraculously change before the end of November.

But ho hum, each to their own....