Member Info for CrustyPete

That was a bit of a damp squib.... :-(

Need all of the "weak holders" out of the way before we will see a sustained rise.

BG, "possibly Mtwara extension" ? I think this has incontrovertibly been proven to be is a prerequisite for the EGM circular....?

It is that KN1 remediation that I am most eagerly awaiting; I think it will be this that will do most for the sp this side of C1 spud.... If successful of course; which is not a guarantee.

Willow, 0.89p was the max price it hit during the NT2 spike - I remember it vividly as I had a SELL order (circa 5 million) in at 0.90p !!

To think that was nearly two years ago now and we have had a 20:1 consolidation in the meantime. Shameful really.

Needless to say that I am still in :-(

BG, among your list of reassuring developments you have missed the most important from my point of view; the successful remediation of KN1. If it hadn't been for this monumental cock-up we would never have been in this parlous and vulnerable situation in the first place.

Looks as if we might sort it out just in time to be too late..... oh what a surprise, you couldn't have planned it any better ;0)

"How can they drop the bid to 6.40 " They know there is a large SELL order overhanging the market....?

Assuming that we would actually get paid for it you mean CP......?

A few dominoes need to fall yet methinks.

Loz, I am sorry to have to contradict BD but as I was trying to point out to a number of the AEX shareholders and posters late last night, it is my view that if we do not drill C1 before early January the "window" then closes until late April.... The wet season in Mtwara runs from late December to Late April and unless the Rig is in place, set up and inspected before the rain starts they will not have the chance to do that again until April. It is now evident that Spudding C1 before Mid January is a dim and distant prospect. Indeed it is unlikely that they will even complete the Farm-Out before then.

Consequently I believe that we are unlikely to see that Spud until May...but that is only my opinion I could well be wrong. But see the link below and you will see why the weather may preclude a March April spud. Copy and paste the whole thing to your browser.

https://weather-and-climate.com/average-monthly-Rainfall-Temperature-Sunshine,Mtwara,Tanzania

50p was Tiptop's target Irish, I will be partying at 25p personally... :0)

50p Tiptop? You know me I don't need much of an excuse for a party , let alone lunch...

As for "memories" there will be plenty of opportunity to create a few more yet... :0)

Well at least we will have a good lunch party for the AGM.... :0)

It goes without saying dunder that had the AEX management not f**ked up the Reservoir we would never have been in this position in the first place. And I agree with you that having f**cked it up (and NT2) and causing the TPDC to lose any faith they may ever have had in allowing AEX to run the Ntorya development the TPDC had all the tools they needed to ensure that AEX BoD acquiesced in the transfer of shareholder value to APT....

So I agree in part, it is as a consequence of AEX managements incompetence BUT I am in no doubt that all pressure has been brought to bear on AEX and the AEXs shareholders in ensuring that the TPDC and ARA got exactly what they wanted....

We can just thank our lucky stars that they have left us with anything at all.

So our KN1 income stream will be turned back on once the EGM is out of the way and we have signed over Operator status and 50% of Mtwara License for $5 million and some credit....

Extortion pure and simple.... but the question is "who was extorting who"? APT/TPDC of AEX or AEX BoD of shareholders on behalf of TPDC and APT?

And what about the expectation on a C1 spud date...?

CP, you say " He also explained in some detail the reason for delays and how the original drill hit a compartment of the main reservoir and not the main target by a very small margin."

So it just goes to show the value of 3D seismics eh? Using 2D is a false economy, can you imagine how much this "hiatus" on KN1 production has cost us over the last 18 months? Between $50 -100 million I suggest - in that low ball Farm-Out offer.

CP "He also explained in some detail the reason for delays " - can you expand on that please - Or have I already answered that above? We needed to be cash strapped in order to justify BoD accepting a low ball offer...?! ;0)

CP, I know that it is far more important to AEX than to Solo but did anyone think to ask what is happening to the TPDC claim over the Kiliwani partners for $5.93 million...?

Without this being resolved there is little point producing gas from Kiliwani if we are not going to get paid for it...?

That certainly would be good news Drewky, better months late than never eh? All we now have to do is get rid of the TPDC claim for $5.93 million and we can then start to get paid for it ...!

As you suggest dunder whether another party might be interested in AEX (or AEX assets) or not, the Zubairs are much in control (post farm-out) that it will never be allowed to happen....

I have stated that since the 29.9% sale to ARA no-on would even waste the effort of attempting to take over AEX as they would have minimal expectation or likelihood of getting shareholders to outvote ARA; and ARA would not want to sell otherwise they would lose the goose that lays their golden eggs - (50% of Mtwara License and $80 million a year for $5 million and some credit). Aminex is the Zubair's Santa Claus and they still haven't got Nyuni for a song - yet....

BG "I wonder would the (development licence) be one of the conditions ?"....

As you know I have always considered this likely, but the AEX BoD has already stated that they will not arrange an EGM to ratify the Farm-Out until after the License Extensions have been approved; why would they not say the same about the Development License if it was the case? Unless of course the Farm-Out is not "officially" contingent on the Development license and therefore not a stated "Condition Precedent" but in reality and "unofficially", one will not happen without the other...

As I have said many times if I were the Zubair's I would want to have total assurance that if not delivered before the Farm-Out it certainly followed hard on the heels of it...

Good gracious me, I have never seen anything like the bare faced ramping that passes for Researched Opinion on this board. Well not since those rabid rampers TIPTOP and Irishmouse left the Aminex BB after deserting the sinking ship that they had "captained" for years....

Do they know no shame?!?!

Oh and by the way I have bought in to AAOG today, a few small trades of circa 25,000 at 6.60p so your bloody ramping better work you two; just remember that I know where you live!

Not yet "all in" after all you can never rely on a drill and if it blows out I will be needing to average down!

Now I am "in" I had better mug up on that DIY Rampers manual.... ;0)

So yes no EGM without the License Extension but let's assume that we get the "circular"on the 30th November, the EGM would not be likely before the week beginning 17th December and therefore Shareholder ratification that week. That would allow the Zubairs and AEX no more than 4 days to get the Farm-Out concluded, TPDC approval and a contract in place for the rig before the Tanzanian Parliament go into recess from the 21st to the 7th January.... I simply do not think this is feasible.

Moreover, I believe that the movement of the long stop out to the 31st March is simply an indication of the two parties recognising and accepting this reality.... I think January at the very best for Farm-Out completion and that assumes we get the License extension before the recess starts.

In any event there will be no C1 spud this year!!