Member Info for CrustyPete

"Sadly this is starting to feel very familiar....." Yes John but all very, very predictable and hence why I have been "HOLD" since July...

IF we don't get that EGM circular by the end of the week there will be some very unhappy and impatient shareholders.

But, a question if we do get the RNS on Friday when would you expect the EGM date to be? 24th, 27th or 28th of December or the New Year?

Hobson's choice methinks.... But they may as well wait until the New Year holding it sooner would be pointless anyway; the Govt will be in recess from the 21st Dec to the 7th January so nothing can happen on the back of the EGM until the New Year.

Maybe those "smoke signals" are indicating that it was the 10% COF that "won out" Tiptop..... ;0)

Personally Steve if all they were going to tell us was that they had managed to "free up" the stick valve then, to be honest I would rather not hear it. The only thing worth knowing is the state of the subsequent "remediation" work over. At the time of the last "missive" they were awaiting appropriate permissions to start the work. According to the "powers that be" at Solo we should be hearing that the remediation programme has been completed by the end of the year. Though as someone (dunder I think), quite rightly, remarked the other day much that we have heard from Solo has ultimately proven to be a false dawn....

You would have thought that if the "work over" was that far advanced we might have been given a status report before now... Wouldn't you?

Or, alternatively Hardy, the TPDC and our "Cornerstone Investors" (the Zubair's) have JB in such a compromised position that they, vicariously, are giving all of AEX shareholders a good rogering through his auspices?

Now that can only have happened either because JB and the AEX BoD have been so inept that the TPDC could no longer trust them to execute on the proposed Development Plan OR that our "Cornerstone Investor" have supplied all involved with sufficient "justification" to transfer 66% of the upside from AEX shareholders to the the people that actually have the "profile" to complete on the proposed development plan. Or both!

Any other explanation does not bear close scrutiny - even the "it would have taken us an eternity" to raise the funds for FFD.... but that would be "raking over old coals" and maybe the days for that have long passed? The battle was lost after the KN1 shambles..... BUT as TB constantly reminds us (quite rightly in my view) we are still paying the perpetrators of this debacle a fortune to "represent shareholders interests" and I am perpetually amazed that so many shareholders seem happy to accept this without question. They will be the ones that are still shareholders when it happens all over again with Kiliwani and Nyuni. Ha, if the TPDC allow it to happen...

How many of those 70 or so questions that shareholders posed in advance of the AGM have been answered? None to my satisfaction; they have simply been glossed over. And why? Because the BoD cannot answer them without proving to most shareholders how inept they have been.

I HOPE that the EGM occurs after Christmas because that is the only way that I will be able to attend it and I would love to remind them that the list of questions still remains there to be answered. And with a few more added...

Stuck in a hotel for the evening but will be spending the rest of it in the bar ;0)

Goodnight and good luck all.

Sorry Dunder I have ben offline for a while. And yes you are correct and correct to point it out.. ironically though we will have given up 66% of our principal asset to achieve the resultant position at least we can have some confidence that the potential "uplift" will actually happen and the improvement in shareholder value will materialise. Just a pity that we had to give up that 66% to make tgat happen...

Oh and I can hear the acolytes singing " Yes but we are now secured all the way to production".... Well we can only be grateful for small mercies. And for that we pay $2 million a year.

It should be illegal. We are a listed Company... more fool we shareholders for putting up with it... ho hum.

Sorry Dunder I have ben offline for a while. And yes you are correct and correct to point it out.. ironically though we will have given up 66% of our principal asset to achieve the resultant position at least we can have some confidence that the potential "uplift" will actually happen and the improvement in shareholder value will materialise. Just a pity that we had to give up that 66% to make tgat happen...

Oh and I can hear the acolytes singing " Yes but we are now secured all the way to production".... Well we can only be grateful for small mercies. And for that we pay $2 million a year.

It should be illegal. We are a listed Company... more fool we shareholders for putting up with it... ho hum.

Drewky, you say "Do you not think that each item will bring with it, its own little increase?"

I think your statement has some considerable merit but need to ask, how many of these rises will last? I see many of these as pure "spikes" - just look at the NT2 drill, APT Farm-Out, BLVN Farm-Out.

My view for what it is worth is that the License extension, EGM and Farm-Out completion will without a doubt have a positive affect on the sp not least because the risk of AEX going "tits up" has then evaporated. The bigger questions in my mind are "how much and for how long"...? I could see all three getting us to 3p+ (if announced in short order)and a good CPR may add a bit more. The bigger catalysts catalysts as I see it are the 25 YR Development License as it takes our assets (or a large proportion at least) from 2C status to 2P status - and that is a considerable difference.

Moreover we could get all of these and then because we have to wait another 3/4 months for the C1 spud much of that rise evaporates as people see an opportunity to take some money off the table whilst looking to buy back in before the spud...

That said, I still believe that successful remediation of KN1 is the thing that will keep our sp up... This will allow us to keep the "pot boiling" with cash flow comes the opportunity to run seismics over Nyuni and Kiliwani and for the BoD to look at the long touted "non Tanzanian" asset acquisitions...

Without this the news flow from Farm-Out to C1 Drill results will be sporadic at best and we all know what happens to AEX sp without constant news flow.

Well it wasn't my post and therefore not really mine to answer but, as I read it, the word "inconsequential" was referring only to the volume of shares that marineville was supposedly selling and wasn't a comment on R1/R2 moreover, yes, I would agree R1/R2 is very consequential as it is set to de-risk (or not) the two deeper targets...

*** inconsequential

I see people making the assumption that the sp is not moving because we will not get any news this week. I disagree I do not expect the sp to move UNTIL we get the news and only then if it is good news. Yes, I am only too aware of the old adage of "buy the rumour sell the fact" but I do not expect many people to be buying for the first target zone; the sizzle is in the second and third.... but hey, what do I know... :0)

We will still only get one pint and not three pints....

Oh ad Drewky you say "Whether we all agree with its make up or not, surely it is the only realistic option for us to make the profits we came in for"....

Well not quite; one third of the profits we came in for actually.... ;0)

So one or two observations.

Drewky agreed on the transportation aspect of the rains but am firmly of the opinion that it also affects the setting up the rig and getting the rig "inspection".

CP I am totally on your wavelength regarding the timing of the EGM , BUT actually do not believe that there is any element of "stage management" here, I firmly believe that the BoD would have held it as soon as it was feasible; unfortunately it has never been within their gift and everyone else has their own agenda.

As regards the delays being in everyone's interest, I would be happy to accept that to a point but now believe we have passed that point; I do not see that it is in anyone's interests to see the EPS target of Q1 2020 drift out and a May spud must surely preclude that as a possibility.....

The only remote "conspiracy" theory that would work is that the Zubairs want to drag it out until after the March 31st deadline at which point the Farm-Out fails, AEX are effectively "dead in the water" and the Zubairs inherit the Golden Goose. I do not (yet) think this is remotely on their agenda BUT if we haven't got that License extension and date by the end of December then there will be many people asking the question.... And what happens if the Farm-Out IS contingent on the 25 YR Development License and that drags on beyond 31st March?

You self evidently weren't reading a week or so ago when we had exactly this conversation on here. I am not in a position to search now but will someone else please show CP the results of that conversation. TB you know the one.

I suggest you look up the weather forecast for Mtwara CP NOT Tanzania....

You are clutching at straws CP, the "window" closes before the end of January.... I prefer not to cling to false hope.

Already too late John for a "winter" spud...

Already too late John for a "winter" spud...

I see that there were no trades recorded here after 3:50 or thereabouts.... Indeed I see we actually closed down today. Can anyone confirm?

So marineville "good news that the market didn't take advantage this morning... though, let's face it, considering the stage we're at, this fairly static price is the equivalent of a drop. "

For someone that was expecting at least a10% drop any rise is surely a positive and hardly the equivalent of a drop (not unless you have an agenda); my view as expressed at 13:45 on Saturday was that the RNS was effectively no news and that the market would treat it "neutrally" and maybe slightly to the positive... exactly what has happened.

As regards the drill the first target level is a high chance of success but production targets hardly earth shattering, it is the 2nd and 3rd target levels that are more "transformative". Therefore I expect many (not all) people to wait until the first target zone has been hit and findings confirmed, as that would be seen to improve the COS on the subsequent far more influential targets. Assuming a good outcome this wee I would expect top see a rise but I believe next week will be the "acid test".