Member Info for CrustyPete

Sorry, I really have to go BUT Drewky in your opinion, what "conditional on certain events." means? Which events? Shareholder approval yes BUT we were told that we would not get the EGM circular until the License was extended.... hence when they made that statement that was NOT one of the conditions - it had to be in place before the deal could be completed. Now that has changed therefore, logically, so too have the terms of the deal.

Apologies again but I have to go.

Oh and Dunder, frankly, anyone invested in AEX that needed to be told the below is a bloody fool and should be doing something else with their money rather than risking it on small O&G stosks.

"he should ALWAYS ALWAYS caveated with the words SUBJECT TO GOVERNMENT APPROVALS!!"

Moreover as I have been concerned the AEX BoD always have made this VERY clear; you just had to have the patience to read the statements.

Just before I go. So CP I totally agree with your final statement "So they have started but can't be clear (as per ususal and maybe wisely) on when it will be in production or if it will be sucessful?"

And the statements in the circular would bear that out. I do NOT think the statements in the circular back up the statement from Solo BoD

""Re-mediation work has begun and the perforation of the deeper target is still planed to be completed by end December""

I still stick to my long held belief that after sorting out the valve they would need approval from the TPDC for the work over and I cannot see how the TPDC could provide that approval and the BoD NOT let shareholders know about it..... How can that NOT be "material"?

Challenge dunder? I simply suggested that I do not think that a contract to Farm-Out was worth the paper it is written on without a License underpinning it? They wouldn't be signing a contract that was "contingent" on the license was my point; it would be unenforceable as the original Farm-Out was supposedly "Binding"; are APT going to pay out $5 million without a License in place on a "binding" agreement? Now we know through the recent "circular" that the Farm-Out is "conditional" not "binding" - though it did not say what is was conditional on' it could be may things. Maybe they decided that because of the continued delays to the License approval they had to change the agreement from a "binding" one to a "conditional" one - in which case yes, dunder you would have been proven to be correct. Though it now puts AEX in an even more vulnerable position.

Once the AEX BoD have signed over "control" of the License there is nothing then to stop APT or the TPDC delaying and delaying everything until AEX are bankrupt and APT as operator can take over AEX's 25%. The Operator and the partners of the license automatically receives the holding if one "partner" were to default (as per Bounty O&G)... If the "Operator" were to go tits up if is less clear if, to who and how their holding would be distributed - I believe that the license would have to go up for "auction".

Through the new "conditional" agreement it would appear that the Farm-Out deal is only "binding" on AEX and not on APT methinks.....

Anyway I rather hope it is all incidental and that by the time we get to the AGM the License is in place. If not there will be a few pointed questions from me at the EGM.

Thanks one and all, I am out for the rest of the day and much of the rest of the weekend. It will be interesting to see what happens to the sp on Monday and if our beloved BoD are going to issue any more info... I rather doubt they will, they will be off for Christmas now spending their "hard-earned" money... Hard earned? Yes, most of us small shareholders work bloody hard for it.

Oh but CP are they linked?!

We have been told that in the circular that C1 spud and Farm-Out are NOT linked to the development license and the BoD have never suggested that KN1 remediation or the TPDC Claim is linked to Farm-Out. WE now we find that even the EGM is not linked to License extension.....

So based on the above nothing is contingent on anything; so why has it taken since July for us to get to this position?

Because the BoD haven't a clue what they are talking about or they are not being totally open with the owners of the company (shareholders)?

Good morning all.

mj, I have to say that in the main I have every sympathy with your observations and was trying to put forward similar views at the AGM; when, by the way, we were told that they were due to implement a "performance related pay scheme" by the year's end and here we are still without one. The BoD must have been far too busy sorting out KN1 during that period. OR maybe they dont want to introduce PRP scheme until they have some performance to report.... If their pay had been based on their performance since May 2017 they wouldn't have earned a bean.

One other thing to add though. You say "The circular told us absolutely nothing that we did not know beforehand...." But, actually not quite. They told us that we couldn't have an EGM without a License Extension but here we are with a date for an EGM but without that license extension.

Moreover "take or pay" agreements are Standard practice and not a sign of superior management!! - both Orca and WRL have "take or pay" agreements, also that need to be triggered with COD Commercial Delivery dates....

Interestingly by the way neither have ever had the "balls" to test them in Tanzanian court of law when the TPDC don't take and don't pay.... .;0)

Yes indeed Drewky you were one of very few that recognised the reality of the situation re C1 spud date However orry Drewky, I am afraid that your interpretation of the sentence "Key aspects of the Gas Sales Agreement include: take or pay provisions (meaning the TPDC purchase as much gas as can be delivered by the Kiliwani North-1 well),"Is very wide of the mark: You say "I'm sure we would all have been very happy with on initial agreement but it maybe the very reason we are being held back?"Well no actually; as most LTH will know those "Take or Pay provisions" were never triggered because before they were triggered AEX and TPDC had to a agree a COD - or date for Commercial Delivery (to produce and deliver 20 MMscf day in perpetuity) and that date never happened... consequently we never did get to that Take or Pay provision I am afraid.

Well Drewky to me that is plainly Drilling in Q2 (2019) NOT producing in Q2....

CP..... "Flush the traders out and drop the licence next week JB" - Do you seriously think that would make a blind bit of difference?

As you pointed out, and I have only just got to it: the most poignant snippet to me was the line below....

"There is a firm initial plan to produce through two existing wells and a third, new, well which Ndovu advise is planned for Q2 2019."

Well I am very sorry one all and I don't like to say "I told you so". BUT I expect there will still be some people here trying to tell me that there is still the slim possibility of getting the C1 spud in before the rainy season!! LOL

Anyone here still think we are on target for a Q1 2020 EPS?

Wakey wakey...!!

We will probably close above 1.70p today.... oh sorry, doesn't time fly, I see that, in fact we closed down over 10%.

I am so glad that I have been on "Hold" since July. I just hope that come January I don't wish that has been a "SELL".

Good night all - until Monday

Yes Drewky, interestind I was just about to make reference to the same "snippet"

"Approval of the Ntorya Development Licence is neither a pre-condition for the Farm-Out Agreement nor
is it necessary for the drilling of the Chikumbi-1 well."...... Interesting.

Well not "officially" at least ;0)

Apologies yet again one and all I didn't mean to post twice..... Apologising seems to have become a habit. Pity the BoD don't do it more but then apologies and 350,000 salaries don't really go very well together do they?

Yes they are at liberty to say things at the EGM, though what they are able to say and what they choose to say are, of course, not necessarily the same thing....

Yes they are at liberty to say things at the EGM, though what they are able to say and what they choose to say are, of course, not necessarily the same thing....

Dear oh dear. And there I was thinking that this new circular might tell us something new and provide shareholders with confidence and optimism. What about our Mtwara License extension? What about the CPR? What about the remediation of KN1?

All we have is confirmation that we have no money and that, without a Farm-Out, no prospect of getting any......

Two surprises

1) Apologies to all - I was totally wrong in suggesting that before we got the EGM circular we would have to have a License Extension - but if I was wrong so too was the BoD - how comforting to know that our BoD have their fingers on the pulse - NOT!

2) So the "binding agreement" turns out now only to be a "conditional agreement" - yet again some more total bollocks fed to us by our omniscient BoD and "conditional" on what exactly? Shareholder and TPDC approval? So yes we know that and they are a given but also License Extension? Dev License? So it yet may not even happen?

So Drewky, still think that today will be the last chance to buy some AEX at below 1.70p? I know I don't....

Still "HOLD" I am afraid until after the EGM - there are now even more questions that need answering.

I suspect the reason for that materdj is that whilst they have issued the RNS to meet with their own and shareholders expectations the wording of the circular will say something like "the Mtwara License extension has now been approved with x.y.z terms and conditions...." and actually they cannot yet say that as they have not yet had "formal" ratification of that fact and nor therefore the green light from the Govt to say so.....

So whilst the RNS conforms that the EGM will go ahead and thereby the fact that the Farm-Out is to proceed it will be disconcerting of the "terms" of the circular were to come out after the market closes. Everyone is only too aware of concern around the 4:30 Friday RNS and this would, in effect, have the same feel...

Excellent - it makes no difference whether it is before or after Christmas; 4th of January makes perfect sense and I can attend!!

Don't hold back Seawolf as I stated on Tuesday in relation to the repeated delays....

"The only remote "conspiracy" theory that would work is that the Zubairs want to drag it out until after the March 31st deadline at which point the Farm-Out fails, AEX are effectively "dead in the water" and the Zubairs inherit the Golden Goose."

Is your theory similar...?

July CP, come on AEX first announced that they were speaking to Eclipse on 21st March.... A conversation with a "back-stop" of 31st March 2019 over 12 months later. Ho hum.

Just one or two thoughts from me.

Firstly I have long been in the camp that have stated that the BoD are bloody foolish in providing "target" dates for something they can not possibly control. It seems that the "doubting Jonahs" are about to g 4 - 0 up on the "fawning acolytes" and through no fault of the acoloytes. Putting definitive dates on things (even if only "expectations") is both unnecessary and counterproductive as the emotive language used here all week goes to prove.... It gives the detractors all the ammunition they need to undermine confidence in the BoD and the sp.

That said there is time yet for an RNS and, if not that, a tweet to update everyone. I would not be surprised to see something today - though equally I wouldn't be surprised if we didn't.

As I pointed out earlier in the week it really doesn't make any difference now whether we get the "circular" today, next week or next month, the "damage" has been done insofar as even of we get the EGM and the Farm-Out in December (highly unlikely in my view) the Tanzanian Parliament is in recess from 21st to 7th so cannot "approve" the Farm-Out until the New Year... So, in turn, no "winter" C1 spud.... So, in turn, no Q1 2020 EPS.... etc, etc.

The only further damage that can be one is to the AEX BoD's reputation; can that go any lower.

Self inflicted damage.

Still a "Hold" but will I live to regret it? Is the ultimate "conspiracy theory" looking more and more likely by the week...? I will only start to worry about that after Christmas.

GLA