Member Info for CrustyPete

Bye Bye Slackbald....

"I see in Solo's current market cap of 11 million when you consider the cash and rec position of 7 odd million + the other assets, maybe £4 million being on the generous side?" That is exactly my point CP, just because Solo have assets valued at that figure does not mean that any additional assets are "valued" at £0...!

You could just as easily argue that the 25% of Ruvuma is currently valued at $20 million (pro rata Farm-Out valuation) and therefore Solo's cash and other assets are currently valued at MINUS £4/5 million.... The reality is that even cash is usually discounted by the market - unless it is to be paid out in dividends. Why? Because to provide shareholders with "equivalent" shareholder value it has to be a belief that eventually shareholder will see the benefit of it - otherwise there is a risk that the shareholders will never see it. So for example, if AEX had $2 million on the balance sheet, no income and nno prospect of any over the next 12 months, how much would the market value that cash? £ZERO. Because it would ALL be spent on BoD salaries over that period - No shareholder value at all.

Solo may have $8 million of cash BUT it is all "committed" and any return on that "commitment" is far from guaranteed. Just ONE drill blow out and it has all gone.

Bowleven once had £200 million of cash on the balance sheet and yet had a MC of only £70 million. Why? because "the market" never believed that the BLVN BoD would ever return £200 million of value back to shareholders.

But, it doesn't BG, that is exactly the point... We have a current MC of £60 million, no cash, a GSA for Kiliwani that produces nothing and Nyuni.... Are you seriously suggesting that these remaining assets are worth £60 million? No of course they are NOT! Therefore Ruvuma is worth more than £0 million. How much? I would guestimate at least £45-50 million of that £60 million.

Oh I know "we have been offered $40 million cash for 50%". Well actually no we haven't we have been offered $5 million and some carry, (credit) which we will spend over a period of a least a couple of years. And , moreover it isn't in the bag yet, indeed we haven't even got a License for the area that we are looking to farm out.

Anyway, I am off out, so bye for now.

Sorry I tbought i was reading the Solo BB. However the same logic applies.... Currently and until the farm out is comlplete the market values Ruvuma at the current market cap as we have next to no cash and Nyuni is valueless. Are you telling me that KN1 is worth £60 million?

You are making too many assumptions CP. We dont even have a Ruvuma License currently.... of course the MC to an extent takes in to account the expectation of a Farm-Out but to say that it values Ruvuma at nothing is to my mind nonsense.

So how do you substantiate that claim CP? The MCcurreny values Ruvuma at $0. Actuallly the marker vales Solos total asset base at £12 million.... you cannot apportion that to specific assets. Maybe it values everything else as $0 and Ruvuma at £12 million.
?!!

Even cash is rarely valued at more than a proportion of "face value"...

I apologise in advance if this has already been stated but, in addition to the obvious explanation regarding the 5p "nominal" value the most important aspect og the recent statement for me is that the BoD very clearly state that they have no immediate expectation nor need to actually issue new shares in the near future. This development simply allows them the option to do so....

Consequently I think the "market" will view this announcement "neutrally" and if anything slightly positively as it means that the Compnay will no longer have to rely upon punitive landing terms to raise cash.

No-one here will worry too much about a "dilution" once the sp is up above 30p and the MC circa £40 million. I capital raise of £2-5 million will then have next to impact - moreover there is no reason to think that the BoD will not make any future capital raise open to existing shareholders.

You are making an assumption mj that the BoD are actually in control of, anything...... they are not.

Really one is worth four? Or even 10? As I said earlier much of the positive impact has already been lost and if the EGM is over the Cristmas period it will have next to no impact on the sp. Moreover another missed "target" date and it will need to have 4 times the value to make up for the negative impact of the repeated "failures".....

I really do hope that JB does get t right this time; shareholders cannot afford yet another false dawn and nor can the sp.

"However they disappear as soon as the sp starts to rise..."

And MAX that means they will have "disappeared" for about 20 days in the last 20 months.....

"Doubting Jonahs" 3 - "Fawning Acolytes" 0. Will it be 4 - 0 nil by this time next week or 3 - 1? Even money in my book.

"really, I was just trying to be humorous : )"

Yes BG apologies, I suspected it might have been a bit "tongue in cheek" ;0)

"Better hope the TPDC do drop their claim or there will be nothing happening at all until CH1."

TB until and unless they drop their claim, start to pay out on their debts, extend the license, allow the Farm-Out to proceed, sign off the KN1 remediation programme AEX will have no income whatsoever and no ability to pay the BoD or, even, the electricity bill.... We had $250k in cash at the half year and have not received any income since (at least) April.

If they do not relent soon we may not even get to see the C1 spud :-(

Ahh but you forget TB, we will receive $3 million after the farm-out - just enough to put some food in the trough to cover accrued "defecit" on the BoD's wages over the last 6-9 months and for another year to come ;-)

"you know,I think that the "(and expect circular publication next week)" from this mornings tweet, has a stronger sense of expectation, than last weeks RNS ("The Company expects to post the Circular to shareholders by the end of November") I think we're nearly there : )"

Really BG? Blimey, you really are grasping at straws...

At best I suppose you can conclude that if you believe that it is only a matter of time before it happens (as I do) every missed "expectation" is one more "expectation" closer to actually seeing..... But can you really be confident that we wont see yet another "expectation" missed?

I my view we have already missed the December January C1 spud window so actually whether we get the EGM circular next week or next month really is totally immaterial now. Even if we have the Farm-Out signed off in December the market won't even notice as they will all be out buying presents and attending Company Christmas "do's".... At best it would just be a "relief".

I would rather have Christmas not thinking about it and start the New Year full of anticipation and excitement ! Lol ;0)

"Assuming the farm out is agreed and signed off very early January, CH1 happening before the rainy season also seems very unlikely so are we looking at KN1 remediation as the only other event likely to happen before say May ?"

Well John in "Operational" terms I think you are right.... we will of course get a License Extension and maybe the 25 Development License approval over than period but nothing likely on the Operational front. We could conceivably begin some seismic work on Kiliwani and /or Nyuni but will we have the funds to cover it? Maybe, if the TPDC remove the sword of damocles from above our heads by resolving the $5.93 million claim and by paying their outstanding invoices and with the $3m advance from APT. If this were to happen and we were to get KN1 back on stream we could start to progress these.

Moreover what effect will the deferment of the C1 spud to May/June have on the timescales for our EPS? That can no longer be realistically be expected to occur in Q1 2020 now surely? Maybe Q2?

No John, as discussed here many, many times, the minimum deferment between announcement and EGM is 16 days as the 14 days is NOT to include the day of the Announcement nor the day of the EGM...

And that ignores the issue of allowing time for "postage" so in actual fact the 16 day estimate might be conservative. By my reckoning an RNS on Monday would allow for an EGM no earlier than Wednesday 19th December and possibly 20th/21st.

So in reality any announcement after next Wednesday effectively ensures a "post Xmas" EGM in my view...?

It looks like a deliberate policy on the part of the BoD; hold the EGM on Boxing Day in the hope that no-one turns up!!

Also looks like "Doubting Thomases" 3 - "Fawning Acolytes" 0...... So much for withdrawing to the shadows eh?

Will we actually see an EGM in 2018? Govt in recess from 21st Dec to 7th January. Certainly won't now be seeing a Farm - Out or C1 spud!!

Well CP I agree in part, I don't think anyone will argue that the first target date for C1 spud is now impossible (December 2018) so it is already definitely late - the only thing that is in doubt is how long it will be delayed. January? I don't think that is any longer possible and, if not, then April / May is the next window....

Not official CP but I think that BD has confirmed what his opinion of the likely C1 spud date is going to be (April - May) after meeting with the Solo BoD on the 22nd. That's good enough for me....

Of course any sooner would be a pleasant surprise but I am going to be working on BD's timeframe, personally.

GLA

Thanks CP, very helpful.

However Steve once helium IPO's our 13% will reduce pro rata (if they IPO 50% Solo's share will reduce by 50%). And I cannot see Solo having any more than 12.5% of Ruvuma by the time the EPS is on stream - the costs of the any subsequent drills (C2 & C3 etc) drills will be prohibitive for Solo.... And I fully believe that before EPS APT will drill at least one and probably two additional wells. Even more so now that C1 and EPS have been delayed for 4/5 months.

Steve you are quite correct Solo have the same 25% as AEX but I am talking about Kiliwani and Solo do NOT have as much of Kiliwani as AEX (7% vs 58%).

And yes no income for more than 9 months indeed but CP did say that the remediation is anticipated by the end of the year..... In which case that seems to me to be the closest asset of any that are owned by Solo or AEX that is likely to be producing.

Take it or leave it - I am not arguing, just pointing it out.

"To think that we have more assets nearer monetisation than they do."

Really? Do you not believe CP when he says that KN1 will be successfully remediated before the end of the year?

If it is true,then yes Solo and AEX share the same asset AEX holding is many times bigger than Solo's.

In my view the delay in the AEX EGM circular has put paid to any chance of a near term C1 spud but, actually, successful remediation will be the biggest short term catalyst for a sustained sp climb in the short term (AEX and Solo).

Anyway , one other thing what ever happened to the Helium1 IPO and Drill? Both of these were meant to happen before the end of 2018. What is the time line for these now?