Member Info for CrustyPete

I am not trying to paint is as bad news CP, simply that it is by, itself rather, rather insignificant..... And NOT likely to have any meaningful impact on the sp; in contradiction of your implied suggestion that as a result of todays news we shoudl be looking forward to a meaningful sp impact...

"Dropped the price here by over a penny when they reported no flows."

My point being - we still have "NO FLOWS" and are no meaningful distance closer to getting any.

Well CP if that is sufficient to "float your boat" then so be it; I am not quite so easily satisfied.... we can have all the crew and equipment that we want on site but without the approval of the TPDC to initiate perforation they will be sitting there scratching their balls. And, for the umpteenth time we have, so far achieved NO significant progress towards remediation all of that equipment and crew are only there to "unstick" a valve.

Sorry Tanzania I did not really answer your question. So in an attempt to do so, by the time that the Farm- Out was announced back in March it was probably too late and the opportunity missed; the damage already done. We should have gone to market sooner; when we had money and a License.

The BoD said at the AGM that they were no longer fully funded for NT3 (C1) but could not have foreseen the issues with KN1; that they were unable to now raise funds from any other option. BUT they knew of the issues with KN1 in March of 2017, so why oh why had these issues not been resolved by the time that the Farm-Out was being discussed a year later? And if they knew of these in 2017 why risk compromising the financial integrity of the Company by not addressing them sooner or by raising further capital when it would have been very easy to do so....?

It can only be for one of two reasons and I will let you draw your own conclusion.

I still believe so Tanzania, yes (too cheaply). I too would have preferred a placing BUT it goes without saying that the amount that I would have gone for I can only answer with the benefit of hindsight. Would I, could I, even have seen the need for, say, $35 million? No, probably not but largely as a result of the fact that as recently as mid 2017 the NT3 drill was purportedly "fully funded" and that, after NT3 drill the Ntorya Development proposal was "self funding".....

Things have now changed - nearly two years later and we have no funds and the Ntorya Development Proposition is now a lot later than was then was originally envisaged. The time between drills would no need to be far shorter than would have been necessary at the time and maybe the TPDC/ Govt want to accelerate the development.

If we had gone for a placing after the May 2017 AGM when it was recognised that we were not going to go for a "back to back" drill and our Market Cap was circa £150 million I would have suggested a placing for £15-20 million was conceivable and realistic. It would also have been in PI's best interests for us to involve another Institutional Investor at that stage to add to Majedie as a counter balance to ARA.

Moreover we would have had $9 - 10 million cash in hand and may well have been able to remediate KN1 a lot sooner. Not because of cash flow but because of TPDC "complicity".

Now all of the above suggests that it was actually within our gift to do the above. I am not sure that either our cornerstone investor or the TPDC actually thought that was in their interests. Would ARA want their interests diluted or would want another Institutional Investor to be involved? Were the TPDC convinced that AEX were capable of acting as Operator of the Ntorya Development Scheme after the NT2 result and having been proven to have drilled a compartment at Kiliwani? Maybe, maybe not but, even if not we could have arrived at the same point without the delays and "coercion" that has been evidenced since.....

But then Tanzania I doubt that the shareholders would have voted for it - and that is the rub.... only through getting to this parlous state was it ever likely that AEX shareholders would accept such a lowly offer.

Well if by that you mean that we are better off having and unstuck valve than a stuck one, yes. Do I consider that any meaningful part of KN1 "remediation"? NO.

We are no closer to that than we were in April......

A "NO" vote without a License extension would sign our own death warrant.... which is exactly why I suggested last week that the Date for EGM without that License Extension puts all AEX shareholders into an even more vulnerable position..... The squeeze is still on?

Does anyone still think that is we voted "NO" that License extension would ever arrive? Or the KN1 remediation ever be approved? Or the TPDC "claim" ever resolved? Or the Development license granted?

Certainly not until we had the money to assure the successful delivery of all of Ntorya and how are we going to do that with an sp that would be at an all time low.....?

It is only the first stage of remediation because the Management allowed the valve to get stuck; if it wasn't for this we would not even have needed to do this.

So in effect we have simply made "one step backwards and one step forwards". End result? We are back where we started before the stuck valve needed resolving.

"Gas was not flowing, now it is. That is positive." Really? What in a "let's be thankful for small mercies" type positive?

Te gas only stopped flowing because we turned the tap off CP and then the Gas Valve stuck. Even before that we were not producing any gas because it was at too low a pressure for the GPP to take it in.... Are you now trying to tell me that we ought to be grateful for returning to that position? Nonsense.

The only positive is that something is moving and, who knows, maybe the TPDC will deign to allow us to perforate the well an increase that pressure. Until then CP whatever gas is flowing is totally incidental.... And then there is the issue of getting paid for it CP. Though somehow I think the two might go hand in hand....

"Nothing priced into the current sp". But what should that value be....? H1? HH? Ruvuma? There is currently no license at Ruvuma, there have been continued and unexplained delays and the operator are a hair's breadth from extinction. If the Farm-Out doesn't happen how much is Solo's share worth? It could be £zero...

As I said below the value of the asset is only a reflection of the it's likelihood of monetisation. A bit like an exploration drill - it is binary, If it is successful great news and the SP rises significantly, if it fails the sp (and sometimes the company) is on it's knees.

There are distinct risks associated with this project and they will only disappear when those risks are substantially reduced and that won't happen until the License has been extended and the Farm-Out completed. Then we will se the sp stabilse ahead of the next real catalyst and that is C1.

Anyway all I must go for the day.

Good luck.

Aminex shareholders will NOT vote against it - do Turkeys vote for Christmas? If shareholders were to vote against it they would be voting for their own extinction. All brought about through poor management and poor contingency planning (and that ignores the conspiracy theories).

It could all still go tits up for AEX but even then Solo should be protected.... Though what happens to a license or the partners holdings if the Operator of a license goes bust I am not too sure - the License up for tender I believe - so no guarantees.... So the only way that APT would be guaranteed of their 50% and Solo of their 25% is for the Farm-Out to proceed to it's successful conclusion.

Better for all that the Farm-Out goes through and all partners are protected methinks.

"40 million if you add the costs incurred so far and the fall in the sp."

But that is double counting steve..... If you put £20 million into a company on day 1 the company is then worth £20 million. As time passes and the money is spent that value of the company declines to the point where there is no money left; at which point the company is worth nothing. £20 million has been "spent" not £40 million - £20 million and the loss in the value of the company!

If over that period the company buys assets then those assets should add value to the company - the issue is that these assets are difficult to value and even more difficult to liquidate. Only on a liquidation event will those assets actually realise their "market" value, and only then if delivered into the shareholder's hands as in the BoD's hands any cash may well be squandered or reinvested in "dud" assets.

Whatever happens to the sp will be a reflection of the risks and time perceived as being needed to deliver the above.

That is why C1 spud is the ONLY meaningful sp catalyst for Solo, as only then is there any likelihood of a sale and distribution.

"SP was actually going up first thing - buys at 1.55 and 1.6." and then reality dawned. For goodness sake it was only a three or four line RNS. Just goes to show that some people only read what they want to read. "Successfully carried out remediation work" and "gas was observed at the surface" and all of a sudden everything in the garden is roses....When in reality nothing has changed and we are still staring at the farm-out and license delays and the C1 spud now not being until May/June 2019.

And that assumes all has been completed successfully by March 31st

1.40 & 1.395 actually ;0)

"gas flowing is clearly positive news"... really? CP you know very well that but for the stuck valve gas could have been flowing consistently albeit slowly. We have not been flowing gas for months as they have let the basin recharge (hence the stuck valve). It woud hav ebeen a bloody disaster if there had been o gas flowing but I cannot see how yo can conclude that "gas flowing" mean a bloody thing..... We are still in exactly the position we were in 12 months ago; slow recharge and insufficient flows and pressure to deliver to the GPP.

Tell me how that is "positive" CP. You really are clutching at straws. You are as bad as Drewky!!

If there is a positive here it is simply that the AEX BoD have, at last, delivered something operational! Ye ha!

Albeit in three months and not the few days that they had given us to expect.

TB, please read my post from 8:17. Certainly NOT started perforation let alone completed it. But then there isn;t much point until we can actually get paid for it !! It appears that we have only now concluded what it was supposed to take us a matter of days to complete back in September.

But TB for goodness sake learn to be thankful for small mercies. :0)

I have a very similar attitude GL, I picked up a few at 1.40 and just below; couldn't quite manage your 500,000 though. Skint... ;0)

GL did you pick up more at 1.50p or did you manage to lower your entry point?

I have just picked up a few more - bit low on funds though unfortunately otherwise I may have had a few more :-(

I hope I don't live to regret it. Still on "HOLD" only because I still have grave reservations until and unless I get some meaningful answers at the EGM. My BUY today only an opportunistic purchase, I agree with Drewky I think they should recover a bit before the end of the week.

CP, so when we were informed that we could look forward to successful remediation of KN1 before the year's end, is this what they had in mind? Lol! If so this is massively underwhelming... we have released the valve. We have not even yet started perforation let alone completed it and until the "pending approvals" box has been ticked there is guarantee that we will....

And CP we have had flows throughout (until the valve stuck) the issue is the level of the flows.... once we get back up to 15 MMscf/d, once we get the TPDC claim removed and can get paid for those flows we may get our 1p back. Until then it is nothing more than a pipe dream.

Reasons for optimism? Yes. Reasons for celebrating? Certainly not.

So Robbie "The positive here is that the Tansania government have finally pressed the go button for aex." See my post below. I think that is one assumption too far....

My take on things. any news is good news and this at least shows progress so let's rejoice. Just to remind all of the first notification.

"The Company initially plans to repair a faulty valve during the current quarter, which is expected to allow for gas to flow from the well and evaluate operational parameters at the reservoir and gas processing facility. Pending approvals, the Company will then proceed to perforate a lower untested and potentially gas bearing section of the reservoir system which is anticipated to occur during the fourth quarter with the intent to bring the well back to full time production."

So they have now completed the first part of the "plan". What we now need to see is completion of the second part. So Sambo/ Robbie I do not yet think we can assume that the "Pending approvals" contingency that we require for the second part is necessarily a given. Do you....?

I will be a lot happier when we see the conclusion of the overhanging TPDC "claim" removed; there is little point "turning on the gas" until we can get paid and removal will show that the TPDC are no longer holding things up. I do not think we can conclude that this has yet happened based on today's announcement.

Reasons for optimism? Yes indeed. Reasons for celebrating? Certainly not yet.