Member Info for CrustyPete

Methinks you must have been a naughty girl this year GL...... ;0)

Maybe one or two of those if Santa is feeling forgiving.

For what it's worth, I like most posters here found Apache's posts in the main, repetitious and facile and sometimes unnecessarily personal and antagonistic. That said I would always defend someone's right to post what they like and take exception to having any poster banned... From time to time I have found certain posters so obviously and offensively guilty of "calling their own book" that I have just filtered them (usually only temporarily) but would never attempt to get anyone banned. After all variety is the spice of life and if everyone that you don't particularly like got removed there would be no-one to argue with!! I really enjoyed sparring with the "Village Idiot" Always wrong Ron :0)

Anyway, I must be off - out and about this afternoon and for much of the rest of the week. I will be looking in occasionally and commenting where provoked into action!

Good luck all.

You need to read the question Dunder - I did not ask you to explain precisely how you would have managed the situation - I recognise that it could have been done much better, particularly KN1 - I have been saying since May 2017 that it was our Achilles heel. What I asked you was a very specific question...

" what element of AEX BoD's mismanagement was it that contributed directly to the imposition of the TPDC "Claim".....?"

Or should I make it a bit clearer for you by adding a load of "FFS" or "F' s sake" or similar?

But CP you state specifically "probably less cash than solo right now ........ whilst holding the same % or Ruvuma."

They do NOT hold the same percentage of Ruvuma "right now", they may have less cash that Solo "right now" but they do NOT hold the same percentage of Ruvuma. So you have deliberately or otherwise created a false comparison

I cannot see that being a realistic prospect TB. After all, Chikumbi 1 is Chikumbi 1 simply BECAUSE it will be drilling the Jurassic layers.... These delays will not have caused them to rethink that.

So please explain Dunder what element of AEX BoD's mismanagement was it that contributed directly to the imposition of the TPDC "Claim".....?

Or are you suggesting that the failures of NT2 and KN1 are justification enough for the TPDC to do that?

I would not argue that the TPDC may have every justification not to proceed with the development of Ntorya under AEX's operatorship but I really think that the tactics seemingly employed by the TPDC to bring AEX BoD and shareholders "to heel" are a disgrace and we are all suffering as a consequence. Imagive a scenario without the claim overhanging our heads and with Income from Kiliwani having been flowing for the last 6 months. What would he share price be now? And would it have made any difference to the farm-out?

Well, " maybe " is the answer. Not the fact of the Farm-Out but quite likely the price....

As I understand it TB, Caroil-6 was a possibility until it was decided to drill deeper for the Jurassic layers at which point it became a definite "no-no". Otherwise it was always a "possibility" with improved casings that allow for gas to be "syphoned off" to provide relief from the ultra high gas pressures. But I is not considered up to drilling to the depths required for the Jurassic layers.

That said I have long asserted that the Rig "tender" was simply a smoke screen and that the actual kit was determined in April....

Oh and Dunder just look at the history of the Orca / Swala Farm Out if you want to see another example. TPDC had an issue with this proposed Farm-Out and imposed a very similar but much larger "Claim" against Orca. Once the TPDC had got what they wanted from Swala the "Claim" was found to be unsupportable and resolved in Orca's favour. Interesting that TPDC's claim against AEX was not resolved at the same time despite being for exactly the same reasons....

I bet it will be resolved within days of the Farm-Out completing.

You know my view Dunder, TPDC have consistently avoided resolving these issues to ensure that AEX shareholders have no option but to agree to the Farm-Out at the EGM by leaving them penniless. And they won't relent on either issue until the EGM is out of the way and there is no "escape" from the farm out.

I know you disagree but hey, whatever.

So CP AEX have less cash than Solo and they have the same %age of Ruvuma?! NO CP you want you cake and eat it!

Either the Farm-out is complete or it isn't. If it is complete AEX have the same %age as Solo and circa $6.0 million cash (post the TPDC claim being dropped) and $5 m cash initial cash payments plus fully funded through to FFD. If the Farm Out hasn't been completed AEX have less cash than Solo BUT they have 75% of Ruvuma

As I have said before I wouldn't argue with you that Solo is undervalued relative to AEX but your representation of the relative positions is grossly overplayed....

No dunder, absolutely not. If that was ever a possibility, or even legally sound (I doubt it is), why has it not been done before now? If that were the sticking point it would have been in AEX's interest to get this done months ago, thereby clearing all of the contingent blockages around TPDC claim and Kiliwani work over sign off... We would now have been paid on invoices and may have Kiliwani producing again.

FWIW TB I don't agree with you on the "If pushed I suspect we'll drill CH1 before the development license.". I think that recent delays play into the Zubair's hands. I can't see the C1 spud coming before May 2019 and the post drill analysis until what? Late August? Hence the Ntorya EPS is surely already going to miss the Q1 target date? If the Govt wait until August to start pipeline construction that would then be late Q2 maybe Q3 - I don't think they can afford that delay. By then they will be needing C2 and maybe even C3 to be nearing production (dependent on C1 results and flow rates of course - Jurassic?)

I wouldn't argue on the "counting chickens" attitude CP, I have been there for many a month and haven't seen or heard anything yet that will make me change that position; hence the continued "HOLD"..... Maybe this time I will get a pleasant surprise. However since the March Farm-Out announcement I am afraid that the BoD have been depressingly predictable.

I agree with you Dunder on the Kiliwani remediation. We have heard on the jungle drums that we might get news on successful remediation of KN1 before the year's end.... Well if that were to be so it would be good to at least be given a status report on the current situation. There has been no news on this for months and typically if AEX are saying nothing then typically AEX are doing nothing (operationally at least)

CP, you write; "Still in the Christmas spirit, it will be good to have the confirmed EGM date and date for the vote along with the CPR, the icing on the Christmas cake would be a licence".

I really do not understand this repeated notion that we might get an EGM circular without first having confirmation of the License Extension! Yes, the BoD might be lying when they said that the EGM is contingent on the License Extension. Yes, there may be more issues than just the License Extension that is holding it up (Farm-Out paper-work, TPDC approval and/or change of Operatorship?). BUT does anyone really think that if the BoD could actually announce the EGM date without the License Extension the would not already have done so...?!

When is the penny going to drop?! THERE IS NO Placing!!

GL, I honestly do not believe that the Zubairs are interested in taking over AEX quite yet; they will want AEX to fund the development of Kiliwani and Nyuni before taking over "control" of those assets at a song first.

However if they did then why did they offer AEX the option of a Farm-Out? If APT were to drop out now what do you think would happen to the AEX sp? It would be down at all time lows..... Then the Zubairs could buy ALL of AEX assets for less than the $5 million and carry that they are currently offering.

I think that is generous - $2.5 million cash and $17.5 million as "carry" is the current "going rate" for 25% and as I said "carry" is very difficult to value. It may result in no return to Shareholders at all..... And what happens if APT decide to drill 2/3 wells over the next 18 months - before there is a cash return on that 25%?

I would not try to argue that post License extension and Dev License approval Solo is due a re-rate BUT I do not think it is as straightforward nor as "arithmetic" an association as you are trying to suggest...

Anyway I am now "out" and have to leave this.

Just because "the other assets and a cash and rec between £7 to £9 million" is absolutely no reason to expect that the MC would reflect that valuation - as well you know. And even if the Zubairs gave Solo $40 million for their 25% do you think that would be fully reflected in the MC? No of course NOT. Not unless they were going to pay it out in full as dividend - and you can't pay "carry" out as a dividend.

No CP I am not saying that at all I am saying that Ruvuma is NOT valued at £0.... there is definitely some element of Ruvuma in that MC - what the discount is, is open to discussion but it is not 100% for goodness sake. You could just as easily say that all the other assets are valued at £0 and Ruvuma is valued at £11 million. But too would be equally nonsensical.