Member Info for CrustyPete

"Tells me all I need to know."

I am not the slightest bit surprised CP, very similar to your assessment of the investments you are involved in; someone that only looks for the information they want to read to confirm their own biases...

It is called "confirmation bias" and is commonplace among those with limited capacity.

And as TB states if we couldn't get an alternative funding source when we had a Ruvuma License and still had money in the bank and an income (albeit small and dwindling) from KN1 what on earth makes anyone believe that the BoD could find money for anything now...?! With $0 cash, zero income, no license and the sword of Damocles hanging over our head from the TPDC?

If the perforation of KN1 proves unsuccessful and with any EPS on Ntorya a long way away and 100% contingent on two licenses and the successful drilling of C1, no money to develop KN South; without the bail out of the Farm-Out how long do you believe it would be before AEX was bankrupt Mr Burns?

You might well be right Joe; that is certainly true in an number of recent cases. But, for only the second time (and for personal reasons) I have been persuaded to give AAOG a go. Just a punt and a small one at that...

Have you become a simpleton overnight CP?

Firstly let me remind you that I have said that my (very small) AAOG holding is a punt. Secondly what was it that caused Solo to rise to the equivalent of 18p during the NT2 drill....? Might that have been "hot money" CP? In for the drill. Well let's just say that AAOG is analagous to that scenario. Is that simple enough for you or should I make it even easier so that you can understand it?

Has anything above got anything to do with my comments on Solo? NO! Even if I thought that my comments here would make any difference to the price, I would not be wasting my time here for the few pence that it might save me on a lower re-entry point. Perhaps when you made that accusation you were looking in the mirror CP? Some people "out there" actually do make comments for reasons other than their own self interest - maybe you ought to remember that before you go to post such comments about others.

Furthermore are you seriously arguing that $15 million of credit is the equivalent of $15 million cash for valuation purposes? If so you are either stupid or a liar CP. Take your pick. I said that the $15 million of credit was "worth "$10 million of cash, no more than that. But hey, when did "reality" get in the way of a CP ramp eh??!

Want to carry on, you hypocrite?

There is a big difference as you well know - My AEX and Solo holding are and always have been an "investment" whereas my AAOG holding is tiny by comparison and is a "punt" and I am happy to admit as much...

But I see that you are intent on persisting with your deliberate accusation then CP? Oh well, that just goes prove what a hypocrite you are and demands that I treat everything you say from here on in with the contempt and derision it deserves. It simply proves that you are unable to see beyond the end of your own interests CP but them many have been accusing you of that for years. Perhaps they were right all along.

I am not going reprise the conversations of yesterday, other than to say that yes it was good to get a status report on the KN1 scenario yesterday; it was good to see that things are moving but beyond that it does NOT materially change the situation and until we start perforation nor will it....

Moreover both yesterday and today I have made very clear that the risks of AEX going bust are not significant, the point being that though not significant they are having an impact on the sp of both companies and that this needs to be factored in; a point that you still do not seem to understand or acknowledge. But then again, why should that be a surprise CP.....?

"I do believe there are some talking their own book here whilst investing elsewhere in the hope the SP is in the pits for when they conclude their trade."

I seem to remember you getting very upset when (in jest) I accused you of something similar and you demanded an apology...

I have been accused of a lot of things CP but crass hypocrisy has never been one of them.

It seems you are not afraid to stoop to any depths to support your own book then?

So please show me CP where I or anyone else has suggested that Solo are at risk of going bust? I haven't and you can't. This is a conversation about the (current) operator of the Ruvuma assets only; though this risk does have an impact on Solo, quite obviously...

So CP, use the term "scaremongering" if you wish, that is your call but to suggest to readers of this BB that this risk (small though it may be) is not having an impact on the sp of both companies is, either, ridiculously stupid or deliberately deceitful. And I really don't care which you choose ;0)

There is no talk of Solo going bust BD and I think it is perfectly conceivable that AEX could do so, even if a remote possibility. Whether this happens or not remains to be seen but all the time it is a possibility it will weigh n the sp of both AEX and Solo as whilst the risk may be small the consequences are significant.... You may say that I ought to have that conversation on the AEX BB and I have - but it also affects Solo so I believe it is relevant here too.

That is very relevant when talking about the sp and the MC relative to the potential Value of the assets. I do not think you should be talking about one the "HUGE" asset value and the possible upside without relating that to the risks involved and the possible consequences of those risks. They are both sides of the same story BD; but some just choose only to talk about the story that suits their purposes.... All the time they do that I will continue to tell the other side of that same story.

For very action there is an equal and opposite reaction.

Not me Frank I am NOT buying. As I have suggested to you for a while, if you are intent on buying (I am not), keep your powder dry for a little while yet.

If it was seen as a "default" maybe but if the "operator" defaults I am not sure your assumption is true CP. Every license needs an operator and sometimes none of the remaining partners will be able to act as an operator. Typically in this scenario the License is rescinded and sold off. Would Zubairs rather operate with Solo as a 25% Partner or without? They could by the license for a lot less money than they would pay Solo for their 25%. But then if the license is "rescinded" Solo would have 25% of bugger all.

LOL!!

$20 million for 25% currently includes $15 million of "credit" that would NOT translate into $15 million of cash.... Maybe $8 - 10 million in my opinion, using past precedents.

Do I consider that AEX are going bust? I certainly hope not, as I have a lot of money tied up in it. But it is certainly a risk. I can see the situation where AEX agree the farm - out but by 31st March the License has not been extended (not now an issue as C1 drill cannot happen until May anyway), the Farm-Out collapses and as AEX have no funds to guarantee fulfilling any License obligations, cannot drill C1, the License is rescinded, Development License withheld, and the obligations transferred/ bought out to/by the Zubairs.... who, by the way, we are already told are "in control" of the "Rig Tender".

If the above were to be the outcome what would happen to Solo's 25%? The honest answer is that no-one knows... I can even see a scenario in which the existing License is "maintained" but Ntorya is "carved out" of that License as a separate "project" and awarded a 25 Dev License separately.

Whether AEX go bust after that is kind of immaterial but surely it would only be a question of time and the sp would be so low as to be virtually worthless anyway. How would the AEX BoD raise capital for the Kilwani South Drill and Seismics? They have hinted at this in the recent "missive" but, in reality, if they could find an alternative to the Zubairs for funding the C1 drill and Ntorya Development how on earth are they going to get funding for Kiliwani South? Not a hope, certainly not without Kiliwani North incomes and I do not have your confidence about the outcome of the perforation I am afraid.

Anyway as I said all pure conjecture.

"If the Zubairs wanted the asset" - they have THE asset CP any way the cookie crumbles; through a Farm Out and for next to nothing and with only 50% of the ongoing costs, or wait for AEX to go bust and acquire the asset from the TPDC for what? - you tell me.....

If they were to buy AEX they would then have 100% of the costs and the risk associated with Nyuni and Kiliwani - which they not even want by the way - better, for them, to palm off all that risk and cost to AEX/Solo shareholders and then pick up the asset for a song once the development risk and costs have been largely expended.... If they do want these assets and have to accept all the risk and costs why pay circa £50 plus million for the remainder of AEX when if AEX go bust they would probably acquire it that for nothing too. That saving would go a long way to covering those costs and risk...

The Zubairs win either way.

But it is all conjecture so let's just see what happens. It will probably all work out in the end but to dismiss these risks out of hand is both negligent and disingenuous.... And both you and the "market" know it - hence the MC and the discount to the "potential" value after those risks have been mitigated. Just because YOU dismiss them does not mean that they are not there for the "market" and everyone else to see.

So CP please explain what the value of that license is, without it being extended....? None at all in reality if the Operator were not able to meet it's obligations and it is quite obvious that AEX are in no position to do so. And all the time AEX remain the Operator there is no guarantee that it will be extended - A vicious circle....

If we get that extension before 4th January I will be a lot happier; I fully expected it to come before the EGM circular and am somewhat alarmed that it hasn't... But do you think seriously think that if AEX were not to get a license extension and the license were to "lapse" it would seriously jeopardise the Zubairs becoming the operator of a "new" license...? I don't.

I do NOT think the valuation of the Ruvuma license is zero I would estimate it to be about half the current MC because as I have said to you endless times even cash is never fully valued in the MC unless it is being reflected in a dividend... as 25% is currently valued at a maximum if $20 million (far less in my view as 75% of that cash is, in fact, only credit), with the risks that currently exist I do not think that is unrealistic.

But as I said CP - You win CP you can take the field. I have really have better things to do than reprise this tired old banter yet again on this board after having had to do so with Drewky for months over at AEX... I no longer have the patience, the time or the incentive.

I will leave you to it, Good luck.

No I don't believe that risk is 100% but nor do I think it is zero! And unfortunately as I said earlier it is a binary outcome so whilst the risk is certainly NOT 100% the outcome if it were to happen IS.... Where that risk level actually is is surely hard to say and is totally subjective but unfortunately some measure if that risk is certainly reflected in the market cap.

"however according to the legislation the current licence remains in place" and that is surely the point CP - there is no current license and until and unless it gets extended, no farm-out either and if no farm-out how long will the Operator last? I am not saying this is inevitable, far from it, but if that were to happen the consequences are significant for both parties and all of these continued delays only increase the perceived likelihood not reduce it..... I have seen these go to an auction if the Operator is no longer in a position to "operate". I am sure that the Zubairs would ensure that they ended up with the license BUT would Solo still be involved? I don't know is the honest answer.

I do not want to overstate the likelihood of it happening but to ignore it whilst saying that the assets dwarf the MC, whilst true, only tells half the story... it could be argued that with the risks that currently exist the MC is a fair reflection of those risks.

Anyway I will leave it to you CP, I have already had enough of this on the AEX BB for the last 4 months I am not getting in to it again here.

Bye bye.

"The current value in terms of market cap is dwarfed by the size of the assets here"....

The largest of which we no longer have a license for.... See my post from 11:36, an extract here.

"Nothing priced into the current sp". But what should that value be....? H1? HH? Ruvuma? There is currently no license at Ruvuma, there have been continued and unexplained delays and the operator are a hair's breadth from extinction."

If this is delayed, the Farm - Out doesn't happen what happens to the License and to the "partners" assets CP? Or don;t you think this may be having an influence on that Market Cap?

You certainly weren't joking were you when you said you make no pretense at objectivity were you CP.....?

Dear oh dear I give up.

Only if we get an RNS before tomorrow's open. Indeed looks like ticking down not up.... :0(

That would be fun but my expectation is for later in the week....

As I have said before to Drewky CP. To every action there is an equal and opposite reaction....

I couldn't agree more they re very important not because of the 100 bopd that they may provide BUT because of what they will do into confirming the analysis of the prospect as a whole. Confirmation will considerably increase the COS of the deeper targets and that will get the "hot money" rolling in.

After that and, as TIPTOP has suggested many a time, the small market and free float will do the rest.

Each to their own CP.....

Oh and by the way just resorting to dunder tactics like "ffs" makes no difference CP.

"Very significant"...? Very significant my aunt Fanny...Ha. And you have say " one time respected your objectivity but that seems long gone from your posts unfortunately."

Look in the mirror CP.