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A lot of analysts are saying similar things...

Daniel Oliver, Myrmikan Capital on Kitco news (Mar 11)
Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital also on Kitco news (Mar 12)
ANZ senior commodity strategist Daniel Hynes who was on Bloomberg Markets last night (22:00 - 00:00 UK). All saying significant upside risk to Gold c. 1900-2000 / oz once market settles...

All good news if it pans out that way.

Dan Oliver also mentioned the drop in oil prices being fantastic news for Gold miners, which has been mentioned previously on the board.

Gold had a similar drop in 2008 dropping from 1000 to 700ish. There was also an 80% drop in oil then (divergence of the 2 commodities is great news for mining companies...) just like now :0)

By the end of 2008 gold had recovered enough to finish the year 5% higher than at the start of it (very few markets did that in 2008). The low was towards the end of October so it had recovered and then some in a little over 2 months... we shall see.

Peter Schiff was somewhat enthusiastic about the gold price... like "Buy it now!!". Seemed to think it'll motor through 1900, 2000, ...

"Recession coming, gold price to skyrocket like hot knife through butter" – Peter Schiff

Trying to calculate total shares...

Included shares in issue (3,652,271,496), the warrants (150,775,675) and the shares due to Pacific Trends if mining goes ahead (145,530,000). Gives a total of 3,948,577,171.

Could someone please tell me if I also need to include the options granted by the company totalling 259,500,000? Not sure, but I thought these options were against already issued stock (unlike the warrants which require the issuance of new stock)?

Missed anything else?

Thanks.

Ps. Assume the inital 65,490,000 shares to Pacific Trends were issued after the deal (26/09/2016)?

12 March 2019 @7.00am

I would have posted a link but cant figure out how to do it so look for the GGP RNS on the LSE website reference 5186S.

If someone knows how to post a link please could they let me know. Thanks.

hxxps://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-detail/GGP/13998113.html

Hi Scott

Not sure if you've had a reply.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-detail/GGP/13998113.html

Worth adding that the farm-in is staged and after stage 2 NC have 40%, 60% after stage 3 and 70% after stage 4. So just about to finish stage 2 where NC will have 40% rights.

Thanks JS. That's very useful. I stand corrected on shares in issue. So the SP on that basis would be 11.4p (at 5 Moz), 23p (at 10 Moz), etc.

The £320 figure came from the recent Spectrum takeover and I was, rightly or wrongly, using those figures. I would like to think that Hav grades are comparatively equal to, or better, than what Spectrum had, but it's a good point that it does have to be got out of the ground first and this will affect the figures, for better or worse. I was thinking the grades were significantly better at Hav than Penny West so the costs would be lower per oz...? Is that too simplistic? Do you have a view on that?

I think the terms of the farm-in agreement are:

"Newcrest has the right to acquire up to a 70% interest in Havieron by spending up to US$65mln and completing a series of exploration and development milestones in a four-stage farm-in over six years" (signed 12-03-2019, source proactive investors)
with an additional 5% after completion able to be bought at fair market value.

If a takeover was to come prior to the completion of the milestones then presumably GGP is 100% owned by them, as the farm-in grants a conditional right of acquisition. Does this make a takeover by NC less likely perhaps? At least prior to milestone completion anyway? Overlooked something?

I'm assuming the farm-in agreement is a legally binding agreement on both sides?

Shares in issue is 3562.27m.
Warrants as of 2 March 2020 is 150.72m
Total 3803.05m

At 5 Moz £480m gives SP 12.62p, 10 Moz 25p, etc.

And that's Hav only, but as I say that assumes the recent (February) Ramelius buyout of Spectrum is a valid comparison.... as per original post

Hi

Figures in pounds converted at £1 = AU$2
Sale price of Spectrum = £114m
Asset 355, 500 oz
So cost / oz = £320

Assume 5 Moz for GGP gives £1600m, so 30% = £480m. Current M Cap is c. £170m. So about 2.8 times (apologies as I originally posted 8 - you were right about forgetting the 30%! :0))

I did wonder if there was additional infrastructure / assets aside from what was quoted on Mining Weekly, Mining Journal etc. but this is quite a sizeable disparity even allowing for that and with an estimate of 5 Moz... which some might say is low? Obviously if 10 Moz then figures is doubled, i.e. £960m so 5.6 times current M Cap.

Morning all.

LTH, but first post so apologies in advance for any mistakes!

I've read the posts regarding a possible TO of GGP so tried to get a ball park figure based on the Ramelius cash/script offer for Spectrum (whose mine 150km from plant, so Hav to Telfer closer).

Offer details were c. AU$208-228m for 799,000t @ 13.8g/t (within this 569,000t @ 16.8g/t) conditional upon gold spot price not falling below AU$2000. Offer was post MRE. Ramelius AISC around AU$1.225 oz.

I can't get a figure that looks remotely right... all way too high IMO. It's prob my maths, lack of knowledge or invalid comparison to pro-rata. Assumed 5 Moz for Hav (reasonable?) still getting a figure more than 8 times current GGP M Cap?

Could anyone perhaps shed any light? AISC cost similar? Gold price same or higher... also Telfer plant closer (and fuel cheaper :0)... puzzled. Because no MRE yet?

Thanks and appreciate all the good info on the board.

GLA