Member Info for corradus

Has anyone managed to sign in successfully please?

Has anybody got in? Still problems for me...

No agreed. It could just say that!!

Morning
I've clicked the link in the invite email, but it keeps taking me back to the sign-in screen. Is that because the meeting hasn't started yet or do I have a problem...?
Thanks.

Hi 1gandhi
What I was trying to do by removing all credits was to end up with the worst, ie. highest, AISC I could, taking the view that the actual position will in all likelihood be better.
I also think some of the other production costs, the ones in US$/oz prod in the report, may well also be lower, but I've left those as is. Similarly for the costs per oz sold, economies of scale and all that. Per oz I can't see that many, if any, of the costs are likely to get higher...
C

As I've now run out of jobs to do today, and at a bit of a loose end in lockdown, thought I'd run some figures through and share...

Assumptions (data marked * based on figures from NCM March 2020 quarterly)
1st gold pour in 4 years, ie. 4 years until mining.
NPV discount rate used 9% (stable territory etc.)
Au grade 1.95g/t (* double current 0.97 g/t - easy figures later!)
Cu Grade 0.9% (i.e. 0.8 g/t Au eq), Cu price US$5034/t
GGP Shares 4353607171 (includes warrants & options + shares to Pacific Trends)
FX US$1.25 = UK£1
GGP share 30%
Au recoverable 85%, Cu recoverable 86% (* based on current Telfer underground)
Ore body size = 60,000 x 900 x 2.9 = 156,600,000 tonnes (thanks Paddy for those figures - used SG of 2.9)
Throughput 3,862,00 (*) x 4 = 15,448,000t. Telfer can do more, but increased throughput doesn't impact final share price too much (1 or 2p).
So assume mine life 10 years.

Costs
Approach was to ditch all credits and keep all costs...seemed like a plan.
Starting from net cash cost base of 1016US$/oz prod (*)
Remove all credits - lease adjustment (23*), by-product credit (267*) (calculated Cu separately and added in value), ore inventory adjustment (33*), production stripping adjustment (8*) gives 1420 US$/oz prod
From this to get AISC US$/oz sold, remove movement to inventory (26*) and advanced operating development credit (9*) and leave all other debits (4, 87, 51, 12, 25*) to get Adjusted AISC of US1635/oz sold.
Au grade is double compared to current, so subtract half mining & milling cost US$/oz prod giving AISC 1113.5 US$/oz sold, without the Cu credit (it was added in to value though).

At US$1500/oz this gives a share price of 23.62p for Hav only (28.9p @ US$1750, 34.17p @ US$2000).

Lots of possible upside on this.

Any obvious errors would appreciate a heads-up (hopefully not, but I'm still a relatively new at all this. Doing me best). Trying to get the model as good as I can. Happy to redo. Thanks all.

GLA LTH
C

The trade itself is just that a trade. Whether it is a buy or a sell is based on where the price is in relation to the spread (bid/ask) at the time, and may also be wrong as the spread changes so readily :0)

To add to that the farm-in states:
Terms of the Farm-in Agreement
Tenement Blocks means the following 12 blocks within E45/4701:
1472 n, s, x, o, t, y, p, u, z,
1473 v, q, l
Remainder Tenements means the part of the Tenements comprised by (a) exploration tenements E45/4512 and E45/4928; and (b) the remaining tenement blocks within E45/4701 that are not Tenement Blocks.

Targets by Licence
E45/4701 (Havieron/Scallywag)
Blackbeard, Kraken, London, Barbossa (together Scallywag)
Black Hills South
and
Havieron (12 blocks listed above - we all know about this one!)

E45/4928 (PRE - Paterson Range East)
Goliath, Los Diablos, Prefect, Atlantis, Henryetta, Outamind, Trim, Tama, G1, G2, G3

E45/4512 (Black Hills)
Parley, Black Hills North

Note: Black Hills South is in 4701 and not 4512.

GLA
C

Yes Hav will certainly will be a cash machine for NCM. Revisited the March 2020 quarterly figures after they got mentioned. If ore from Hav doubles the Telfer head grade (from 0.97 to around 1.95) then the mining/milling costs per oz Au prod would half. The Hav Cu grade is guesstimate around 0.8g/t Au eq, so around 0.9%, which is way over the current grade (0.17%) so the Cu credit could actually increase per Au oz prod as well...

Just halving mining/milling cost per oz alibe would reduce the AISC by around US$520 per oz... ignoring any potential by-product credit increase. Big impact, 1160 down to 640.

The potential is truly amazing...

GLA.
C

Yes very good deal. I think Sam Garrett and David Archer (Pacific Trends) must have been gutted after not being able to drum up any interest. I saw Sam went to ECR Minerals for around 7 months, but then left Sept last year. Got his options though.

Agree with you Paddy.

Yes OT... I'm looking forward to it as well...

Anyone else out there that has not yet got an EventBrite ticket I think it's worth getting one (free), if you are so inclined and can make it (get up!!). Online AMEC briefing with CB at 7.30am our time (BST) on Wednesday 6 May.

Hi johnht
I don't know anything about degiro, perhaps others do, but I would recommend Hargreaves Lansdown, A J Bell, Halifax to name but 3...
Welcome and Good Luck.

Hi
GGP issued a number of warrants which essentially give holders the right to buy shares in the future at a specific price, in this case 2.5p, and they need to be exercised (used) within 2 years of issue, see RNS released 12 August 2019 @ 10.32. The warrants were issued alongside a share placing, i.e. buy a share at 1.85p and get a voucher to buy another one at 2.5p anytime within the next 2 years. There are just over 132m of these warrants left now.

Hi
GGP issued a number of warrants which essentially give holders the right to buy shares in the future at a specific price, in this case 2.5p, and they need to be exercised (used) within 2 years of issue, see RNS released 12 August 2019 @ 10.32. The warrants were issued alongside a share placing, i.e. buy a share at 1.85p and get a voucher to buy another one at 2.5p anytime within the next 2 years. There are just over 132m of these warrants left now.

No problem Reamonn. I'd suggest that all holders do check their own situation with regard to their own broker, not because it is going to happen (!), but so you can be prepared for any eventuality and it can then be part of your plan...
GLA LTH.

Hi Reamonn
You are correct. Stocks on any recognised exchange are allowable, but unfortunately that isn't the same as possible. This has previously been discussed, but short story is that if your broker does not allow, i.e. deal, ASX stocks, then it is a no-go IMO. If that offer happens then I will be selling pre-offer - my ISA and SIPP are both with HL.

The figures I used were for US$1500. His default price was US$1239.5 so using that price:
24.1p and 28.9p respectively.

Hi All
I had a quick rewatch of the (conservative) Investment Journey Greatland Deep Dive YouTube video and fed in the "revised" values - dimensions increased on one side from 600m to 900-1200m, take your pick. So increase of 50-100%.
Also looked at higher grade value for 1.86g/t. Changed NOTHING else, I.e. low gold price, high AISC (imo), copper at 0.6%.
That gives:
50% bigger = 17p × 1.5 = 25.5p
100% bigger = 35p
If you raise the gold price a little, or lower the AISC, or up the copper it can nake a dramatic difference. The value in the video is being worked off a margin of less than US$100...
GLA... really pleased with the news/results.

Yes possibly. Wasn't there a post somewhere about Rio bring advised to do something like that?