Adam Davidson, CEO of Trident Royalties, discusses offtake milestones and catalysts to boost FY24. Watch the video here.
Hi learner,
Yes very good point. The Cadia AISC figures were low for 2019. FY of US$132! But that did include a record quarter. Nonetheless if we're looking at anything like these AISC figures that's fantastic news. The AISC margin was US$1137...!! Just goes to show how much of a difference the decent quality ore would make to Telfer ops I guess?
Do you have a figure in mind as to what you think total annual production might be at Telfer?
Thanks.
A discount rate of 15% for your DCF analysis? Seems excessive to me and GGPs capital outlay required under the JV is very low.
Margin over cost of $500 also too low IMO - FY2019 AISC for NC (at Telfer) was US$1253 / oz and oil has gone lower, gold is rising and will continue to climb IMO (albeit with some blips on the way where investors pile back into equities ignoring the LT impact of govt stimulus packages), and that was also for LG ore not the HG stuff at HAV.
By the time GGP only have a 30% share stage 4 is complete - currently 60% - and by that stage I'm fairly sure we'll have other results on the books, gold will be US$2000+, and AISC might be a little higher (for me margin more like US$750) :0)
So that gives 13.5p using your (high) 15% and no value attributed to other prospects...will be higher...and HAV being 20Moz...hope it's higher...and gold being US$2000...hope it's higher!
Mulling over top slicing again on the 29th...
Could some of the current rise be attributable to T10 notes today... with profit taking on the 30th after the announcement. Any views?
Just know that if I top slice on 29 and it drops on 30 I'll probably buy back in again... lol.
GLA. Looking good.
Hi Paddy
I think so. Watched the YouTube video again (Greatland Gold narrow its focus...) last night and CB actually says:
" A lot of interest from a lot of other players..."
The video IMO clearly shows GH and CB know what they have, indicates there is interest from other players in what they have, know how key HAV is to NC and shows they are in this for more than just the money.
I just cannot see that they would sell out to NC for a low offer, or at all even. If the offer proceeded anyway I think other parties would make an approach / be approached. I dont anticipate anything proceeding if it isn't agreeable to both companies. It may well get very messy and jeopardise what they have - which IMO is a good deal for both.
That's my reading of it anyway FWIW.
GLA. I think the next few days will be interesting... ;0)
And if GGP decline an offer at 11p the farm in presumably continues - I can't see NC walking away - and we get the MRE and FS for free, or very little, and a fully proved up resource and a much higher POG. A bit of a gamble, but isn't that's what explorers do rather than mining companies?
Could be for refinancing as has previously been mentioned or other deals elsewhere...
OR it could be for takeover....
Personally I'm still not convinced there will be an early deal just for HAV, as to get to end of stage 4 only requires spend of US$45 and NC then own 70% anyway instead of 40% currently and have the option on 5% at FMV. So now requires NC to purchase 60% vs 30% end stage 4.
A full blown takeover is more likely IMO, but would I think require some amount of stock as the cash currently on hand is insufficient. This might not be so unlikely as the stock would share valuation risk/rewards for both parties to some extent. A TO also gets NC HAV early anyway, eliminates any first refusal scenarios if another interested party came along, precludes having to set up JVs for other GGP prospects that NC might already be interested in, etc.
If it was amicable it might work well for all concerned? Who knows.
Without the drawdown by NC I wouldn't have thought it likely, but now...?
I'm sure the "team" will do us proud if required, but I'm torn as to whether there will be a deal prior to the end of stage 4. As has already been mentioned, at the end of stage 4 NC will have got their 70% "for a song". Prior to that they're having to pay for more than 30%, albeit in a more unknown state so maybe cheaper (cheap enough - not so sure it'll be given away?). I can't see it making financial sense. The stages are going to have to be done anyway. To my mind it seems more likely a deal will done at the end, where NC take their 5% at fair value and possibly the other 25% too.
Who knows - I'm sure whatever gets agreed will be good news for all LTH.
GLA.
I think that's reasonable Paddy. By the time we get to the end of stage 4, which is when NC will own 70% - currently 40%, the PFS, FS and MRE are all done and dusted and paid for jointly in effect - by NC and GGP - by assignment of ownership to NC (by GGP), cash (NC) and yet more cash (pro-rata NC and GGP) if above commitment limits by stage detailed in the JV agreement. That's the way I read it anyway - could be totally wrong.
I was planning to do that with HL, but it appears they closed that option due to Covid...?? So in the end I bought into the ISA normally and then sold outside of it when the sell price reached what I paid including fees. If you're fairly confident of the price rising I think this might work okay if you have the funds available as you don't lose the spread.
DYOR and good luck.
I think US$1.4bn equates to around 40p. Might a deal also involve NCM equity which would at least keep GGP holders in the game for the other prospects? I suppose it's about what holders would accept and whether the BOD or commend any deal to some extent?