Member Info for corradus

A couple more trading days next week until the results are released Wednesday 7.00am. SP trending upwards for a few days now, and may continue next week.
Looking forward to some good results hopefully.
GLA LTH.

https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/968171?src=mbl_msp_android&ref=share

The buyback has reduced the number of shares in issue by around 4.6%. The point if it is that it theoretically will result in an increase in shareholder value, all other things being equal...
Looking forward to the release of the results on the 16th and hoping for an SP increase leading into them... we shall see.
GLA LTH

From 29 December RNS:
In aggregate, Morgan Stanley & Co. International Plc, who undertook the program on the Company's behalf, purchased 33,763,488 Shares for a total consideration of $99,997,939.89 at an average price of £2.1903 pence per Share.

@Damers
Hope you gave in to temptation!
Totally agree with what you say regarding the management team. Very happy with today's RNS.

There is a large percentage of PIs holding this share, and we would have a say on any sale of Hav or GGP. The larger your holding the more of a say you have... Personally I would be guided by SD and the BOD, but I would not accept 29p (and I'm pretty sure neither would they recommend such an offer). It would be much too low.
With the SP at it's current level (for whatever reasons...!) and apparently relatively little II interest at present it provides an opportunity for PI holdings to increase at these levels, if circumstances allow IMO.
I believe PI sentiment is likely more adverse to selling at a low ball offer than IIs might be if they had a larger proportion of ownership (they may have less sentiment/patience/foresight/belief), which is odd given the drive for increased institutional investment, and even more so if it is institutions keeping the price low.
Onwards and upwards.
GLA LTH.

It's worth noting that in the interview he was asked about the possibility of selling 30% of Hav (@ 24:24) and said that it would be put to shareholders, as would any takeover if GGP.

@iPad
I was referring back to Zoros statement in his original post at 14:15... I agree I could have worded it more clearly.
"£365 (SAS's, $500 favourite) - 8.6p"

@Stebo
I totally concur. Our posts overlapped... I type very slowly.

@Zoros
I don't believe my figures are miles out, but happy to be corrected.
Take your $500m for 5% as an example...
We currently own 30% of Hav so the value of that would be 6 x $500m = $3b, even at this stage with no value attributed to other targets and allowing no potential for growth in Hav compared to the assumptions and figures used for 5% FMV calculations at this point in time (and note that we keep the cash for the 5% we sell).
$3bn = £2,220m
$2,220m / 4.2bn shares = 52.85p per share, an increase of a bit more than 8.6p on today's SP (of course we don't know what the SP will be when the figures is released so cannot give a figure for the increase, or decrease!!, at that point in time)..
IMO the valuation of the 5% will set the value for all of GGP's ownership of Hav, i.e. 25% retained + cash for 5% sold. Why would it not?
BB quote $228m and an SP of 24p, which is what you get if you revalue GGP's 30% of Hav, again more than an increase of 4.3p on today's SP.
Personally I don't believe you can allocate an increase in SP to the valuation of the 5%, it depends on the SP at the time. FWIW I believe it revalues the whole of GGP's 30% ownership of Hav.

Thought others might find this useful...
5% FMV figures to see what SP they might support via rerate, following on from previous posts (zero value assigned to all other prospects, zero growth after FMV established, etc. so Hav only and specifically at time of 5% FMV...)
FMV in US$m > SP
90 > 9.5p
135 > 14.25p
180 > 19p
225 > 23.75p
228 > 24p (Berenberg)
270 > 28.5p
280 > 29.6p (Canaccord Genuity)
315 > 33.25p
360 > 38p

Ready Reckoner:
Divide US$m by 9 and take 5% off (simplifies full calculation)
So 270 gives 30, subtract 5% gives 28.5p
Actual result is 28.54p, so pretty close

If Canaccord turn out to be nearer the mark with $280m for 5% we will hopefully rerate to around 29.6p...

5% of Hav is about to be valued. After the sale GGP will still own 5 times that amount (25%), and also have the cash for the 5% that was sold.
At the current SP (14.2p) GGP are valued at 4.2b x 14.2p = £596.4m = $806m (x rate 0.74). One sixth of the company(we own 30% Hav currently so 1/6 is 5%, no value attributed to anything else...!) = $134m.
If we achieve more than that then surely the whole company's market cap would rerate, not just the 5% that was sold?
If we get $228m (£168.7m) as per BB then we would hopefully rerate to 24p (6 x $228m = $1,368m = £1,012m gives 24.1p per share). Not sure why £175m (more) would only increase SP by 4.3p, which would currently give an SP of 18.5p...

Currency used in BB note was US$228

@Josh
We'll agree to differ then, as the requirements you mention currently exist - they are not new and the current market cap of 530m reflects those constraints.
I has assumed you had just divided the current 530m by 5 instead if 6 and got 106m...

IMO an absolute floor of around 88m will maintain the SP... and as Walkabout says that implies zero value for non Hav assets. All looking good.

@Josh
Should it not be 1/6 of the current cap, as the 5% is being swapped for cash? If the 5% (of 30% currently held) is sold for 1/6 of current market cap then we have 5/6 (25%) market cap left plus the cash... ???

39.5p if 5% sold (so 25% remaining)

Apologies. Should have added that my post relates back to a post by KPDm on 16 Nov.
Regards C

Indivior competitor Braeburn (Camurus AB US licensee) received a Complete Response Letter from FDA in relation to Brixadi on 15 Dec.
Haven't seen it posted so here's the link:
https://view.news.eu.nasdaq.com/view?id=b737cd93864fec14b922e4cf4d43b6e7e&lang=en

Camurus AB (NASDAQ STO: CAMX) today announced that its US licensee Braeburn has received a Complete Response Letter (CRL) from the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for its updated New Drug Application (NDA) for Brixadi™ (buprenorphine) extended-release injections for the treatment of opioid use disorder. The CRL is a result of continued quality related deficiencies at Braeburn’s US based third party manufacturer, identified by the FDA during a pre-approval inspection.

“We are very disappointed to learn of the new Complete Response Letter for Brixadi and the continued deficiencies at Braeburn’s US manufacturer. Regrettably, this comes at a time when the opioid crisis continues to worsen and access to new effective treatment options for opioid use disorder are urgently needed”, says Fredrik Tiberg, President and CEO of Camurus. “Camurus is seeking further information from Braeburn and will consider all options to ensure that Brixadi becomes available to US patients as soon as possible.”

Camurus will provide further updates as soon as additional relevant information has been received from Braeburn.

Wishing everyone a happy and prosperous 2022.

Looking forward to very positive results in Feb.

Share buyback complete, or very close IMO, perhaps up to $2.5m remaining (33,349,178
shares bought so far). I am hoping another may be announced come Feb...