Chris Heminway, Exec-Chair at Time To ACT, explains why now is the right time for the Group to IPO. Watch the video here.
@Josh
We'll agree to differ then, as the requirements you mention currently exist - they are not new and the current market cap of 530m reflects those constraints.
I has assumed you had just divided the current 530m by 5 instead if 6 and got 106m...
IMO an absolute floor of around 88m will maintain the SP... and as Walkabout says that implies zero value for non Hav assets. All looking good.
@Josh
Should it not be 1/6 of the current cap, as the 5% is being swapped for cash? If the 5% (of 30% currently held) is sold for 1/6 of current market cap then we have 5/6 (25%) market cap left plus the cash... ???
Apologies. Should have added that my post relates back to a post by KPDm on 16 Nov.
Regards C
Indivior competitor Braeburn (Camurus AB US licensee) received a Complete Response Letter from FDA in relation to Brixadi on 15 Dec.
Haven't seen it posted so here's the link:
https://view.news.eu.nasdaq.com/view?id=b737cd93864fec14b922e4cf4d43b6e7e&lang=en
Camurus AB (NASDAQ STO: CAMX) today announced that its US licensee Braeburn has received a Complete Response Letter (CRL) from the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for its updated New Drug Application (NDA) for Brixadi™ (buprenorphine) extended-release injections for the treatment of opioid use disorder. The CRL is a result of continued quality related deficiencies at Braeburn’s US based third party manufacturer, identified by the FDA during a pre-approval inspection.
“We are very disappointed to learn of the new Complete Response Letter for Brixadi and the continued deficiencies at Braeburn’s US manufacturer. Regrettably, this comes at a time when the opioid crisis continues to worsen and access to new effective treatment options for opioid use disorder are urgently needed”, says Fredrik Tiberg, President and CEO of Camurus. “Camurus is seeking further information from Braeburn and will consider all options to ensure that Brixadi becomes available to US patients as soon as possible.”
Camurus will provide further updates as soon as additional relevant information has been received from Braeburn.
Wishing everyone a happy and prosperous 2022.
Looking forward to very positive results in Feb.
Share buyback complete, or very close IMO, perhaps up to $2.5m remaining (33,349,178
shares bought so far). I am hoping another may be announced come Feb...
https://www.stockopedia.com/articles/why-shares-in-indivior-may-be-able-to-withstand-economic-turmoil-250010/
Some reasonable points here IMO, although somewhat mechanical and not particularly nuanced... :0)
Probably about another 8-12m $ still to go, so complete in less than a week at current volumes. Total shares bought back will be upwards of 30m, so 50% more than the Scopia placing at 250p.
All IMO and best estimates.
GLA
I'd estimate the buyback will conclude within the next 1 to 2 weeks, dependent on volumes.
It is quite possible IMO there will be another come February. I am optimistic about FY results. The interims on 28 Oct were positive, and FY guidance for net revenue was raised from $705m - $740m to $750m - $770m (and that follows a previous raise in guidance on 30 June from a range up to $625m to this now increased $705m - $740m range...)
The interim results are a positive read, and perhaos worth another look...
All IMO
GLA
C
I have the buyback spend to date at around £54m (or c. $73.4m) for a total of 20,985,218 shares (although as mentioned on a previous post I cannot account for a certain number of shares...).
A buy at this SP or below IMO. DYOR.
GLA
C
Hi Speedy
I'd be interested in any views people may have regarding physical backed funds, thinking specifically of the Wisdom Tree ones - PHGP, PHSP (recommended to me). The charges look okay to me, but I wondered if there were any aspects to investment in these of which I ought to be aware (would be within ISA or SIPP).
Thanks, and apologies for OT.
GLA
C
Hi All
I've been watching the share buyback with interest, but cannot get the current shares in issue to balance against the 77 related RNSs (Transaction on own shares) issued since 30 July. There's around 338,000 shares difference? I'm not overly concerned as I was trying to determine approximately how far through the buyback we are (there's probably an easier way to do this that I'm unaware of!), but was interested why there would be a difference. Are there other pertinent events that would alter shares in issue?
Thanks in advance - GLA
C
Hi zoros
I don't believe I have. My starting point was the $320/oz (Tropicana deal price per oz) where the AISC used for that deal was $1000/oz. Our AISC is $600/oz so the adjusted "deal" price is 320 x 1000/600 = $533/oz, but I've stuck with the $550/oz used by Texlax30.
With $533/oz (deal price), 15Moz and 4.2B shares gives a floor SP is 41.5p per share for our 30% of Hav.
I have not checked the POG when the Tropicana deal was done...
Regards C
Hi Speedy
I posted my reply as I dont think its beyond the pale to assess the possible sale of the 30% stake in Havieron assuming similar terms to the relatively recent Tropicana deal, and certainly judging by the number of recommendations for Texlax30's original post many others thought so too. My intention is certainly not to antagonize anyone (there are many others that are much more proficient at this than I!!), but to underline where our share price should be, and possibly to point out a slight inaccuracy in Tex's original post (although I may be wrong on this and am happy to stand corrected).
Regards C
Worth adding that this is a floor to the share price based on 30% stake in HAV being assessed at 15Moz and bought on similar terms to the Tropicana deal. I personally believe IF (big if) it happens the terms should (must?!) be better and the assessed size will be bigger... (Au price, Cu price, AISC, circumstance re Telfer, etc.)
@Texlax30
Good to get some calculations - always good to peruse those. May I just ask if you converted your final figure from dollars to pounds? The figure I get is somewhat lower based on your assumptions (I used 3.96B shares in issue, which I believe is correct rather than 4.2B used re any potential TO?).
550 x 15,000,000 = 8,250,000,000 (15Moz)
8,250,000,000 x 0.3 = 2,475,000,000 (30%)
2,475,000,000 ÷ 3,960,000,000 = 0.625 (total shares to give $ value)
0.625 x 0.7257 = 0.4535625 ($ to £)
Shares in issue 3.96 billion.
I also get a slightly lower $ / oz of 533 ($320/oz x 1000 / 600 - comparative AISC), but I've used 550. For info 533 gives 44p.
If 4.2B shares rather than 3.96B then 41.5p.
Of course if 20Moz add 33%, etc...
From 1st September RNS:
Following the Share Issue, the Company has no further shares to issue under its block listing facility as all investor warrants issued by the Company have been exercised.
Frustratingly HL have not offered this service for a while, but are talking about reinstating it at some point. Very poor show IMO.
From the link:
"Due to our COVID-19 service changes, we are not currently able to do this for you. Instead you can sell investments in your Fund and Share account online, and move the money to your ISA or SIPP. You can then reinvest the cash."
@napthaman1 - I believe the BB 66p unrisked estimate for Hav alone was based on $1400 and 12.5Moz, which imo will be exceeded.
Currently waiting for funds to clear for another "last" top-up...