Member Info for corradus

https://www.stockopedia.com/articles/why-shares-in-indivior-may-be-able-to-withstand-economic-turmoil-250010/

Some reasonable points here IMO, although somewhat mechanical and not particularly nuanced... :0)

Probably about another 8-12m $ still to go, so complete in less than a week at current volumes. Total shares bought back will be upwards of 30m, so 50% more than the Scopia placing at 250p.

All IMO and best estimates.
GLA

https://www.einnews.com/pr_news/557719665/naloxone-market-booming-worldwide-report-2021-mylan-n-v-novartis-ag-indivior-adapt-pharma

I'd estimate the buyback will conclude within the next 1 to 2 weeks, dependent on volumes.

It is quite possible IMO there will be another come February. I am optimistic about FY results. The interims on 28 Oct were positive, and FY guidance for net revenue was raised from $705m - $740m to $750m - $770m (and that follows a previous raise in guidance on 30 June from a range up to $625m to this now increased $705m - $740m range...)

The interim results are a positive read, and perhaos worth another look...

All IMO
GLA
C

I have the buyback spend to date at around £54m (or c. $73.4m) for a total of 20,985,218 shares (although as mentioned on a previous post I cannot account for a certain number of shares...).
A buy at this SP or below IMO. DYOR.
GLA
C

Hi Speedy
I'd be interested in any views people may have regarding physical backed funds, thinking specifically of the Wisdom Tree ones - PHGP, PHSP (recommended to me). The charges look okay to me, but I wondered if there were any aspects to investment in these of which I ought to be aware (would be within ISA or SIPP).
Thanks, and apologies for OT.
GLA
C

Hi All
I've been watching the share buyback with interest, but cannot get the current shares in issue to balance against the 77 related RNSs (Transaction on own shares) issued since 30 July. There's around 338,000 shares difference? I'm not overly concerned as I was trying to determine approximately how far through the buyback we are (there's probably an easier way to do this that I'm unaware of!), but was interested why there would be a difference. Are there other pertinent events that would alter shares in issue?
Thanks in advance - GLA
C

Hi zoros
I don't believe I have. My starting point was the $320/oz (Tropicana deal price per oz) where the AISC used for that deal was $1000/oz. Our AISC is $600/oz so the adjusted "deal" price is 320 x 1000/600 = $533/oz, but I've stuck with the $550/oz used by Texlax30.

With $533/oz (deal price), 15Moz and 4.2B shares gives a floor SP is 41.5p per share for our 30% of Hav.

I have not checked the POG when the Tropicana deal was done...

Regards C

Hi Speedy
I posted my reply as I dont think its beyond the pale to assess the possible sale of the 30% stake in Havieron assuming similar terms to the relatively recent Tropicana deal, and certainly judging by the number of recommendations for Texlax30's original post many others thought so too. My intention is certainly not to antagonize anyone (there are many others that are much more proficient at this than I!!), but to underline where our share price should be, and possibly to point out a slight inaccuracy in Tex's original post (although I may be wrong on this and am happy to stand corrected).
Regards C

Worth adding that this is a floor to the share price based on 30% stake in HAV being assessed at 15Moz and bought on similar terms to the Tropicana deal. I personally believe IF (big if) it happens the terms should (must?!) be better and the assessed size will be bigger... (Au price, Cu price, AISC, circumstance re Telfer, etc.)

@Texlax30
Good to get some calculations - always good to peruse those. May I just ask if you converted your final figure from dollars to pounds? The figure I get is somewhat lower based on your assumptions (I used 3.96B shares in issue, which I believe is correct rather than 4.2B used re any potential TO?).

550 x 15,000,000 = 8,250,000,000 (15Moz)
8,250,000,000 x 0.3 = 2,475,000,000 (30%)
2,475,000,000 ÷ 3,960,000,000 = 0.625 (total shares to give $ value)
0.625 x 0.7257 = 0.4535625 ($ to £)
Shares in issue 3.96 billion.

I also get a slightly lower $ / oz of 533 ($320/oz x 1000 / 600 - comparative AISC), but I've used 550. For info 533 gives 44p.

If 4.2B shares rather than 3.96B then 41.5p.

Of course if 20Moz add 33%, etc...

From 1st September RNS:
Following the Share Issue, the Company has no further shares to issue under its block listing facility as all investor warrants issued by the Company have been exercised.

Frustratingly HL have not offered this service for a while, but are talking about reinstating it at some point. Very poor show IMO.

From the link:
"Due to our COVID-19 service changes, we are not currently able to do this for you. Instead you can sell investments in your Fund and Share account online, and move the money to your ISA or SIPP. You can then reinvest the cash."

@napthaman1 - I believe the BB 66p unrisked estimate for Hav alone was based on $1400 and 12.5Moz, which imo will be exceeded.

Currently waiting for funds to clear for another "last" top-up...

@jdt1990 If you could post the updated allocation that would be great.

@jdt1990. Appreciate the reply.
So we will know the allocations today and all trades related to the rebalance will be on one day, i.e. next Friday.
Thanks
C

I believe today is the GDXJ rebalance, with 19th March being date for completion. I'd appreciate it if someone could answer a couple of questions regarding the process:
1. Is there a specific time at which GDXJ will use the SP or is it some sort of weighted average?
2. If they need to buy/sell is this done over the course of next week or at a some specific point?
TIA C

@badshah13
Had been wondering re: rebalance date myself. I believe there were some posts that assumed it had already happened, but I did find this post relating to another junior...
"...is pleased to announce that it is has been added to the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF ("GDXJ") pursuant to the GDXJ's fourth quarter rebalance as of December 18, 2020."
So I was assuming around March 18? Perhaps someone could confirm a definitive date, as I was unable to find one! I did try...

Thanks lebugue. I do think that the 5% FMV will have a very positive impact on the SP - FMV for 5% of a 30Moz Aueq resource (1.5Moz) is worth a tidy sum - or if not sold then can add 20% to your SP figures... and as you say that is "just for Havieron". All looking very positive.
GLA.

Thanks for the calcs lebugue. I agree these are conservative estimates, which is no bad thing... You have assumed a 25% share for GGP, but don't seem to have included any value for the 5% presumably sold at fair market value? If it was included what value was attributed to it (I may have missed something!!) ?
Also interesting to consider that Berenberg issued a broker note suggesting an unrisked valuation of 66p based on 12.5Moz, so certainly plenty of scope for higher SP estimates IMO.