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And equally relevant is INDV agreement with Aelis Farma re AEF0117:
AEF0117, which targets disorders due to excessive cannabis use (addiction and psychosis), has shown indications of efficacy in a phase 2a clinical trial and entered a phase 2b clinical trial in the United States in Q2 2022. Aelis Farma has an exclusive option-license agreement with Indivior PLC, a leading pharmaceutical company in the treatment of addiction, for the development and commercialization of AEF0117 for disorders due to excessive cannabis use. As part of this agreement, Aelis Farma has already received $30 million (option payment). If Indivior exercises the license option at the end of the phase 2b, Aelis Farma will receive a $100 million license fee (potentially in 2024) and Indivior will take responsibility for additional development costs. The agreement also includes up to $340 million in additional payments contingent on the achievement of development, regulatory and commercial milestones, as well as royalties on net sales of AEF0117 ranging between 12% and 20%.
Analysts positive aggregate 12m price forecasts for both INDV and AELIS, both higher by 50%+. 4 and 3 analysts covering respectively, all 7 strong buy.
I share your optimism, @mythyaar. It would be disappointing if, after raising FY guidance in October and then Sublocade potential in November (before the capital markets day), the results were below expectations.
It's also encouraging that the shares in Aelis Farma, with whom Indivior have a partnership / agreement for cannabis addiction treatment (June 2021), are now trading near all time highs. Hopefully trial results will be good... All IMO.
GLA
C
IMV currently somewhere between 35% and 39% through the US$100m share buyback that commenced on 1 May. Total shares bought is 9,722,916, based on issued RNS data (from LSE). Average price paid to date approx 302.4p per share.
If you assume exchange rate is 0.8 US / GBP then 37% complete, so still a way to go (0.75 gives 39%, 0.85 gives 35%).
@pinfinder
Yes looking forward to 28 July. They maintained guidance in RNS 28 April, and subsequently settled patent case with Dr Reddys.
Fingers in lots of fairly recession proof areas (IMO) and fingers crossed the tie up with Aelis Farma goes well.
Good news that the patent infringement case with Dr. Reddy's Laboratories has now been resolved. This pertains to the initial patent infringement claims and the anti-trust counterclaim from DRL. All litigation will be dismissed as part of the settlement, and the settlement amount of US$72m is within Indivior's allocated reserve amount.
Hi Robbie
You mentioned you want to move your shares into an ISA so the following link might be relevant about "Bed & ISA"...
https://www.ig.com/uk/help-and-support/investments/share-dealing-and-isas/what-is-a-bed-and-isa
Indivior PLC (LON: INDV) today announced that Mark Crossley, Chief Executive Officer, and Ryan Preblick, Chief Financial Officer, will participate in the Jefferies 2022 Healthcare Conference in New York City. Mark Crossley will present on June 8, 2022, at 8:00 AM (US ET). The live presentation will be available on Indivior's website www.indivior.com and can also be viewed using the following webcast link: https://wsw.com/webcast/jeff240/indv.l/2067675.
All good publicity leading up to the US listing.
So following on from and modifying Hydro's post gives...
"Yesterday's net assets was about $4.5bn .. it's c7% up so that would imply an increase of $315m in Nav ... Now that's the assets. Does that mean $315m cash flowed into GDXJ today not so sure... ? No Probably not.... the underlying index increased 3% so the inflow accounted for the other 4%. So $315m x 4/7 = $180m. And 0.75% of that... is $1.35m or £1.08m of new money invested in GGP tomorrow?
That's about 9m Shares? Rough calc and a guesstimate, but could be significant."
This could be totally wide of the mark... assumed that if the fund NAV was 100 say and the underlying index increased by 5%, but fund increased to 110 then 5 has flowed into the fund?
I dont know if it's useful, but the latest daily increase recorded for the index tracked by GDXJ (that is MVGDXJTR) is 3.03%...
https://www.mvis-indices.com/indices/hard-asset/mvis-global-junior-gold-miners
Is anyone aware of either Berenberg or Canaccord Genuity having revisted their estimate for the 5% valuation?
I see they have been restating their target SP so one assumes looking again at that valuation, but no apparent mention of 5% valuation...
I find this a bit surprising if some of the (low) figures being touted are realistic?
For reference Berenberg at US$228m and Canaccord at US$280m.
It will be interesting to see how the tie up with Aelis Farma develops. They seem to be a very good fit with the Indivior business model, both in terms of addiction therapies and other cognitive deficit drugs (Perseris for INDV, AEF0217 for AELIS).
Aelis IPO was 18/02/2022 at 14.02 euro. Currently below, but large buy on 13 May (and 2 previous on 18 Feb and 25 Feb).
From first quarter results this year...
"In the first quarter, the group invested in a portfolio of investment-grade debt securities totalling $139m, and ordinary shares of Aelis Farma for $11m."
And previously...
https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/news/indivior-aelis-cannabis-therapy/
June 9, 2021
Indivior and Aelis enter $130m deal for cannabis addiction therapy
In the initial stage, Indivior will pay $30m to Aelis to secure an exclusive global option for AEF0117.
AEF0117 could become the first therapy for cannabis-related disorders.
Indivior has entered a strategic partnership and an exclusive option and licence agreement with France-based Aelis Farma for worldwide rights to the latter’s lead compound, AEF0117.
AEF0117 is a synthetic Signaling Specific inhibitor designed to hinder the cannabinoid type 1 (CB1) receptor. It could become the first therapy for cannabis-related disorders, the company noted.
In Phase I clinical trials, the therapy was found to have favourable safety and tolerability profiles. In addition, AEF0117 showed positive signs of efficacy in a Phase IIa study in cannabis use disorder (CUD) patients.
According to the agreement, Indivior will make an initial payment of $30m to obtain an exclusive option for AEF0117 globally.
After Aelis concludes a planned Phase IIb proof of concept (PoC) study of AEF0117, Indivior will gain the right to carry out all developmental and marketing works for the therapy.
In exchange, Aelis will get an exercise fee of $100m, as well as potential milestone payments and royalty payments based on product sales.
Aelis will fund the multi-centre Phase IIb study, which will assess AEF011’s efficacy in treating CUD.
Furthermore, the deal covers exclusive worldwide rights on a patent for AEF0117 and associated products, as well as on methods of use patent to treat cannabis-related disorders such as CUD and cannabis-induced psychosis (CIP).
Indivior CEO Mark Crossley said: “Cannabis is the most commonly used substance of abuse in the US after alcohol and tobacco. However, we have no FDA-approved medications for cannabis-related disorders, which are complex and concerning.
“AEF0117 is the most advanced new chemical entity under investigation in the clinic and potentially represents a unique opportunity to address a growing unmet public health need.”
The company noted that the latest collaboration would aid the company in boosting its position in substance use disorder (SUD) treatment via entry into cannabis-related disorders that are currently undertreated.
Costa/Jiffy
It is for any meeting. The only thing I would add is that you make it clear which account holdings you want them to submit the votes for, ie. if you have ISA, SIPP & Stocks and Shares accounts make it clear it's for holdings in all 3. I have also voted by phone, after going through security...
I have been reading some of the 5% valuation estimates and some do seem low if they transpire.
I was however wondering why the 2 broker estimates for the 5% previously issued were so much higher than some of these estimates (for reference Berenberg at $228m, and Canaccord Genuity at $280m). What perhaps has, or has not, transpired that would lead to these estimates being so significantly different? Interested in views on this.