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Hi Empux & Redhamster
Thanks for your replies. Sheds a bit more light on things.
Redh - have you chased HL on this as 5 months seems a ridiculously long time to get the shares transferred?
Empux - how long did your shares take to appear in HL please?
The arrangement seems okay - only being able to sell - but the risk of not seeing any NC shares for 5 months or more would be a major concern for me...
FWIW I can see a TO of GGP (IF there is one at all) involving part shares, as this would keep cards in the game for Scally etc. moving forward. Don't think a buyout of just HAV is likely tbh.
"GGP... a wholly owned subsidiary of NCM"... :0) much like Newcrest Operations Limited (with whom we have the JV) is a wholly owned subsidiary of NCM. All IMO.
GLA and tanks for all comments re part share TO.
Will post back the reply after I have spoken to HL tomorrow.
Thank you poniexpress.
Appreciate your reply. Failing a definitive answer I will phone HL tomorrow and get clarification, and post back in case it's useful to others.
I don't want to be forced to sell pre-offer, if one is forthcoming, but I suspect that is how it will pan out...
Hi WT98
I think explorers would generally sell off a prospect once it has been proven up, but prior to developing a mine...
Still can't see why NC would buy just HAV now as at the end of stage 4 they own 70% for small outlay and currently only hold 40% so paying a lot more for that 30% hence why a TO of GGP in full is more likely IMO.
Hi
Sorry to repost question, but if there were an offer by Newcrest that involved all/part shares and your GGP shares are held in an HL account (or with any broker that doesn't deal shares on ASX) then what is the process for holding ASX shares offered within HL account (even possible?), particularly if GGP shares held in ISA and SIPP...
Would holders automatically get Newcrest ADR shares, would you get certificated NC shares, but outside of ISA / SIPP wrapper? Or best to just sell pre-offer and keep cash within ISA /SIPP wrapper?
Thanks. C
Totally agree VF. Margin is great and getting better. Those were my biggest issues with that "conservative" YouTube NPV video... the AISC was too high and the default POG used was way too low.... IMO.
Presumably if they're presenting an offer they need to disclose everything drill results wise, so interesting to see what dates are included?
Also T10 holders looking to settle... downward pressure on the price ready for offer?
I have a question on any possible takeover involving all/part shares (be prepared and sell that...). If those shares are listed on a market not normally supported by the company you have your GGP shares with then what are your options? I'm assuming you'd have to sell up pre TO?
Thank you.
Looking forward to next week. GLA.
Hi all,
I'm considering buying in here (also considering CHF), and have a few questions that someone might be kind enough to answer:
1. All the grades, grabs etc. are historic from Newmont days. When were they there and any ideas why they did not proceed with the tenement?
2. Rum Jungle Resources (now Verdant Minerals) had an interest in the Annaburroo area at one time, but didn't proceed with gold - instead concentrating on phosphate (as VM). It seemed like they were looking for gold from what I can find out. Anybody know the history?
3. Can anyone shed any light on Darren Hazelwood's history / track record?
I have tried to get the answers- so not just being lazy :0) - but didn't get very far...
Looking good in terms of funding, and nice to see the BOD acting responsibly.
GLA.
Hi Holly14
HL will deal, but you will need to call them to get a price. Can't deal online or in the app.
"Newcrest Mining ADR Each Rep 1 Ord cannot currently be traded online. For further information about trading this security, or to obtain a current price, please telephone our dealers on 0117 980 9800 during market hours. Please note that if the buying and selling price quoted on this page are the same it may not be an accurate price."
If you want to get excited factor in the copper (push grade to 2.8g/t), lower discount rate, increase strike size (although it does have to be bigger for my figures anyway) and increase AISC margin due to predicted longer term gold price rises... ;0)
Added for balance. I wasn't going to, but... hey ho.
Schedule for mining:
2020 - Resource announced
2020-2021 - Exploration decline
2021-2022 - Feasibility studies, permitting etc
2023 - Underground construction starts
2024 - First gold pour, 400k oz production
2025 - 800k oz production
2026 - 1.2Moz production
2027-2033 - 1 35Moz production
The total ounces produced in the next 13 years are 11.85m.
Is there this amount of rock to be processed over 10 years? Yes IMO. From the original volume estimate we get 109.3Mt of rock (450x150x600x2.7 - need at least double this if Telfer processing c. 20Mt pa), but IMO this is bigger, probably a lot bigger. What volume can be processed pa at Telfer? At the Mill Operators Conference in 2012 Telfer was processing 21Mt pa.
At an average of $1000/oz profit (using current Cadia margin rounded DOWN to $1000 and making no allowance for gold price gains exceeding any increase in costs - which IMO it will...) this is worth $11.85bn. $1000/oz is reasonable - this margin is currently being achieved at Cadia on today's gold price.
A 30% share of the above for GGP is therefore worth $3.555bn.
In £ this 30% share is worth £2880m, but that of course is future earnings.
Applying a discount rate of 15% (I'll stick with that, but it is too high...IMO), this is worth £725m.
GGP's market cap is £278m (mid point) and fully diluted is c£320m - both figures significantly less than the £725m detailed above.
Looking at NPVs based on discounted cash flows, with the inputs above, GGP is significantly undervalued on current information, especially as this is Hav only, ignores the copper, which probably pulls the grade up to 2.8g/t, uses a discount rate of 15% (probably nearer 8% in reality) and a development schedule that is not overly ambitious given NC's track record to date.
You could reduce these figures somewhat in places - margin too high maybe? But then I've ignored the copper, used 15% discount, etc. To say GGP is undervalued doesn't make any sense to this PI...
As ever, these are my personal views, DYOR.
BofA Global Resesrch have today raised their 18 month POG target to US$3000 so I cannot fathom some of the figures being used. The financial stimulus packages around the world are huge... they're not going to disappear anytime soon...much like gold in the ground!! IMO this bodes well for the POG going forward longer term (years). Even if you assume the current AISC for Telfer doesn't change (although how can it not...) and remains at US$1253 and gold hits US$3000 that gives an amazing AISC margin.
Margin of US$500 I don't understand. The total oz also seems too low?
In 2016 most Australian underground mining operations had costs between A$350-500 (US$220-315). This is for more traditional mining (long-hole open stopes) rather than block caving (which I'm assuming is more efficient, ie cheaper?) Allow a bit for I inflation I guess... call it US$500. Margin looks even better now.
IMO the situation today points to high grade gold deposits, bigger mineralisation than originally thought, increasing POG longer term.
I try to make sense of the posts where people might be trying to keep expectations "grounded", but sometimes I'm just baffled... of course I may have missed something?
GLA LTH.
I don't know if it has been posted before, but I found this an interesting read (albeit fairly technical - for me anyway?!), and quite positive when in relation to what we know (suspect / hope) about HAV and it's worth:
https://www.academia.edu/30533916/Is_grade_king_in_gold_A_preliminary_analysis_of_gold_production_costs_at_Australian_and_New_Zealand_mines
Hopefully the link won't get removed....
Hi Schlemiel
I read it as being a term added that prevents NC being left high and dry if a third party was to come in with an offer and try to steal the show, upsetting future plans for HAV, Black Hills or PRE. NC want the chance to match any external offer...
Or have I oversimplified this? Missing something?
I see it as being a positive that both companies might want...
C
"Right of First Refusal: If Greatland receives a bona fide offer from a third party purchaser to farm-in or otherwise acquire all or part of its right, title and interest in the Remainder Tenements, the Company must first make an offer on the same terms to Newcrest. The right of first refusal will only apply and be binding on the parties (a) in respect of any area of Tenement E45/4701, during the Farm-In Period and for the term of the Joint Venture Agreement; and (b) in respect of Tenements E45/4512 and E45/4928, for the duration of the Farm-In Period."
Hi BTB.
Agree some sort of buyout is possible just think it will be amicable. Which is fine.
Can't see that NC would risk a guaranteed 75% of something for 100% of nothing if we went down the hostile takeover route... where would Telfer be then?
C