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I have a question on any possible takeover involving all/part shares (be prepared and sell that...). If those shares are listed on a market not normally supported by the company you have your GGP shares with then what are your options? I'm assuming you'd have to sell up pre TO?
Thank you.
Looking forward to next week. GLA.

Hi all,
I'm considering buying in here (also considering CHF), and have a few questions that someone might be kind enough to answer:
1. All the grades, grabs etc. are historic from Newmont days. When were they there and any ideas why they did not proceed with the tenement?
2. Rum Jungle Resources (now Verdant Minerals) had an interest in the Annaburroo area at one time, but didn't proceed with gold - instead concentrating on phosphate (as VM). It seemed like they were looking for gold from what I can find out. Anybody know the history?
3. Can anyone shed any light on Darren Hazelwood's history / track record?

I have tried to get the answers- so not just being lazy :0) - but didn't get very far...

Looking good in terms of funding, and nice to see the BOD acting responsibly.

GLA.

Hi All :0)
Off top, but if you can and feel so inclined please donate to Comic Relief / Children In Need tonight - the UK government will match whatever is donated!!
Have a nice evening.
Cheers

Hi Holly14

HL will deal, but you will need to call them to get a price. Can't deal online or in the app.

"Newcrest Mining ADR Each Rep 1 Ord cannot currently be traded online. For further information about trading this security, or to obtain a current price, please telephone our dealers on 0117 980 9800 during market hours. Please note that if the buying and selling price quoted on this page are the same it may not be an accurate price."

If you want to get excited factor in the copper (push grade to 2.8g/t), lower discount rate, increase strike size (although it does have to be bigger for my figures anyway) and increase AISC margin due to predicted longer term gold price rises... ;0)

Hi Tom
Yes exactly. Ignoring other prospects and assuming the figures and caveats I mentioned.
GLA.

Apologies. Should have added I used 2g/t as the grade....

Added for balance. I wasn't going to, but... hey ho.

Schedule for mining:
2020 - Resource announced
2020-2021 - Exploration decline
2021-2022 - Feasibility studies, permitting etc
2023 - Underground construction starts
2024 - First gold pour, 400k oz production
2025 - 800k oz production
2026 - 1.2Moz production
2027-2033 - 1 35Moz production

The total ounces produced in the next 13 years are 11.85m.

Is there this amount of rock to be processed over 10 years? Yes IMO. From the original volume estimate we get 109.3Mt of rock (450x150x600x2.7 - need at least double this if Telfer processing c. 20Mt pa), but IMO this is bigger, probably a lot bigger. What volume can be processed pa at Telfer? At the Mill Operators Conference in 2012 Telfer was processing 21Mt pa.

At an average of $1000/oz profit (using current Cadia margin rounded DOWN to $1000 and making no allowance for gold price gains exceeding any increase in costs - which IMO it will...) this is worth $11.85bn. $1000/oz is reasonable - this margin is currently being achieved at Cadia on today's gold price.

A 30% share of the above for GGP is therefore worth $3.555bn.

In £ this 30% share is worth £2880m, but that of course is future earnings.

Applying a discount rate of 15% (I'll stick with that, but it is too high...IMO), this is worth £725m.

GGP's market cap is £278m (mid point) and fully diluted is c£320m - both figures significantly less than the £725m detailed above.

Looking at NPVs based on discounted cash flows, with the inputs above, GGP is significantly undervalued on current information, especially as this is Hav only, ignores the copper, which probably pulls the grade up to 2.8g/t, uses a discount rate of 15% (probably nearer 8% in reality) and a development schedule that is not overly ambitious given NC's track record to date.

You could reduce these figures somewhat in places - margin too high maybe? But then I've ignored the copper, used 15% discount, etc. To say GGP is undervalued doesn't make any sense to this PI...

As ever, these are my personal views, DYOR.

BofA Global Resesrch have today raised their 18 month POG target to US$3000 so I cannot fathom some of the figures being used. The financial stimulus packages around the world are huge... they're not going to disappear anytime soon...much like gold in the ground!! IMO this bodes well for the POG going forward longer term (years). Even if you assume the current AISC for Telfer doesn't change (although how can it not...) and remains at US$1253 and gold hits US$3000 that gives an amazing AISC margin.

Margin of US$500 I don't understand. The total oz also seems too low?

In 2016 most Australian underground mining operations had costs between A$350-500 (US$220-315). This is for more traditional mining (long-hole open stopes) rather than block caving (which I'm assuming is more efficient, ie cheaper?) Allow a bit for I inflation I guess... call it US$500. Margin looks even better now.

IMO the situation today points to high grade gold deposits, bigger mineralisation than originally thought, increasing POG longer term.

I try to make sense of the posts where people might be trying to keep expectations "grounded", but sometimes I'm just baffled... of course I may have missed something?

GLA LTH.

I don't know if it has been posted before, but I found this an interesting read (albeit fairly technical - for me anyway?!), and quite positive when in relation to what we know (suspect / hope) about HAV and it's worth:

https://www.academia.edu/30533916/Is_grade_king_in_gold_A_preliminary_analysis_of_gold_production_costs_at_Australian_and_New_Zealand_mines

Hopefully the link won't get removed....

Go to settings in the app and choose live prices option...

Hi Schlemiel
I read it as being a term added that prevents NC being left high and dry if a third party was to come in with an offer and try to steal the show, upsetting future plans for HAV, Black Hills or PRE. NC want the chance to match any external offer...
Or have I oversimplified this? Missing something?
I see it as being a positive that both companies might want...
C

"Right of First Refusal: If Greatland receives a bona fide offer from a third party purchaser to farm-in or otherwise acquire all or part of its right, title and interest in the Remainder Tenements, the Company must first make an offer on the same terms to Newcrest. The right of first refusal will only apply and be binding on the parties (a) in respect of any area of Tenement E45/4701, during the Farm-In Period and for the term of the Joint Venture Agreement; and (b) in respect of Tenements E45/4512 and E45/4928, for the duration of the Farm-In Period."

Hi BTB.
Agree some sort of buyout is possible just think it will be amicable. Which is fine.
Can't see that NC would risk a guaranteed 75% of something for 100% of nothing if we went down the hostile takeover route... where would Telfer be then?
C

Hi stout. Np. Didn't know if your were querying the notification of interest or the calcs!!
All good.
C

With remaing warrants and options for buyout goes to 4.2B

Just to add that we currently own 60%... drops to 40% at end of stage 3.... 30% end of stage 4. So currently 68p.

Hi learner,
Yes very good point. The Cadia AISC figures were low for 2019. FY of US$132! But that did include a record quarter. Nonetheless if we're looking at anything like these AISC figures that's fantastic news. The AISC margin was US$1137...!! Just goes to show how much of a difference the decent quality ore would make to Telfer ops I guess?
Do you have a figure in mind as to what you think total annual production might be at Telfer?
Thanks.

A discount rate of 15% for your DCF analysis? Seems excessive to me and GGPs capital outlay required under the JV is very low.
Margin over cost of $500 also too low IMO - FY2019 AISC for NC (at Telfer) was US$1253 / oz and oil has gone lower, gold is rising and will continue to climb IMO (albeit with some blips on the way where investors pile back into equities ignoring the LT impact of govt stimulus packages), and that was also for LG ore not the HG stuff at HAV.
By the time GGP only have a 30% share stage 4 is complete - currently 60% - and by that stage I'm fairly sure we'll have other results on the books, gold will be US$2000+, and AISC might be a little higher (for me margin more like US$750) :0)
So that gives 13.5p using your (high) 15% and no value attributed to other prospects...will be higher...and HAV being 20Moz...hope it's higher...and gold being US$2000...hope it's higher!

Mulling over top slicing again on the 29th...

Could some of the current rise be attributable to T10 notes today... with profit taking on the 30th after the announcement. Any views?
Just know that if I top slice on 29 and it drops on 30 I'll probably buy back in again... lol.

GLA. Looking good.

Rup - good decision IMO.