Member Info for corradus

And let's not forget we currently own 60%...

I think 15m x 250 = 3.75 not 3.0 in Red's workings. Then it's the same.

Hi Paddy
I think so. Watched the YouTube video again (Greatland Gold narrow its focus...) last night and CB actually says:
" A lot of interest from a lot of other players..."

The video IMO clearly shows GH and CB know what they have, indicates there is interest from other players in what they have, know how key HAV is to NC and shows they are in this for more than just the money.

I just cannot see that they would sell out to NC for a low offer, or at all even. If the offer proceeded anyway I think other parties would make an approach / be approached. I dont anticipate anything proceeding if it isn't agreeable to both companies. It may well get very messy and jeopardise what they have - which IMO is a good deal for both.

That's my reading of it anyway FWIW.

GLA. I think the next few days will be interesting... ;0)

And if GGP decline an offer at 11p the farm in presumably continues - I can't see NC walking away - and we get the MRE and FS for free, or very little, and a fully proved up resource and a much higher POG. A bit of a gamble, but isn't that's what explorers do rather than mining companies?

Could be for refinancing as has previously been mentioned or other deals elsewhere...
OR it could be for takeover....
Personally I'm still not convinced there will be an early deal just for HAV, as to get to end of stage 4 only requires spend of US$45 and NC then own 70% anyway instead of 40% currently and have the option on 5% at FMV. So now requires NC to purchase 60% vs 30% end stage 4.
A full blown takeover is more likely IMO, but would I think require some amount of stock as the cash currently on hand is insufficient. This might not be so unlikely as the stock would share valuation risk/rewards for both parties to some extent. A TO also gets NC HAV early anyway, eliminates any first refusal scenarios if another interested party came along, precludes having to set up JVs for other GGP prospects that NC might already be interested in, etc.
If it was amicable it might work well for all concerned? Who knows.
Without the drawdown by NC I wouldn't have thought it likely, but now...?

Quick question...
If traders are buying on T10 notes for settlement after the 29th announcement when would they be doing that - today or tomorrow?
Thanks.

Hi TomE
I think you need to take your share volumes into account. You can't just add two averages and divide by 2 to get the average across both accounts.

GLA

I'm sure the "team" will do us proud if required, but I'm torn as to whether there will be a deal prior to the end of stage 4. As has already been mentioned, at the end of stage 4 NC will have got their 70% "for a song". Prior to that they're having to pay for more than 30%, albeit in a more unknown state so maybe cheaper (cheap enough - not so sure it'll be given away?). I can't see it making financial sense. The stages are going to have to be done anyway. To my mind it seems more likely a deal will done at the end, where NC take their 5% at fair value and possibly the other 25% too.

Who knows - I'm sure whatever gets agreed will be good news for all LTH.

GLA.

I think that's reasonable Paddy. By the time we get to the end of stage 4, which is when NC will own 70% - currently 40%, the PFS, FS and MRE are all done and dusted and paid for jointly in effect - by NC and GGP - by assignment of ownership to NC (by GGP), cash (NC) and yet more cash (pro-rata NC and GGP) if above commitment limits by stage detailed in the JV agreement. That's the way I read it anyway - could be totally wrong.

Yes liquidity is the issue... that may change in the future perhaps??

Starvest
Top 4 holdings...
85m GGP
17.5m AAU
21.87m ORCP
1.23m CORA
As far as I can tell...

I was planning to do that with HL, but it appears they closed that option due to Covid...?? So in the end I bought into the ISA normally and then sold outside of it when the sell price reached what I paid including fees. If you're fairly confident of the price rising I think this might work okay if you have the funds available as you don't lose the spread.

DYOR and good luck.

I think US$1.4bn equates to around 40p. Might a deal also involve NCM equity which would at least keep GGP holders in the game for the other prospects? I suppose it's about what holders would accept and whether the BOD or commend any deal to some extent?

Hi Bebeto
That figure comes from "comparable" valuations for other miners as per the table in the article.
Cheers

Yes, good post CB. I was a little sceptical about the possibility of NC buying all of GGP, but given the NC drawdown, future gold price direction, UBS cut of anticipated NC dividend in August due to NC expenditure plans (maybe unrelated?), GGP 60% HAV ownership until end of stage 3 - dropping to 40% (if NC buying HAV only) it now seems more likely to me than any imminent buyout of just HAV - assuming something is on the cards in the near future. Longer term HAV only still a poss IMO.

GLA. Keep safe and well.

Presumably any buy-out (just HAV or all) prior to the end of JV stage 3 would need to be a bid for 60% of HAV?

I wouldn't be adverse to a buyout, but a bit puzzled as to why now, as presumably all research is shared (I assume!) and if NC proceed satisfactorily to end of stage 4 then they get another 30% HAV share (20+10) for a minimum expenditure of US$45m... even if its multiples of that it's still cheap isn't it?

I think it's likely that it will be 40% rather than 60% as the latter would imply completion of stage 3 and NC not wanting their 20%, which to me seems unlikely. GGP have around £6m in the bank currently or thereabouts, £2m of which came from sales of a third of the warrants. Once the other two-thirds are sold that will increase by around £4m. Although it is a concern that the cash burn rate is increasing, up by around 60% at end of 2019, I thinkthey have no debt and with the current market cap (which one hopes will be significantly higher then) I don't think there would be a problem to borrow cash or raise cash via new share issue. Even if the burn rate continues to increase by 60% (excluding the FS contribution) this would give a cost of around £6-7m plus the contribution to the FS (if it is US$40m) so looking at a total of £13-14m IMO, with c. £10m in the bank.

2019 cash burn = £4.4m, assume increasing to £7m for 2020.
FS contribution = US$20m x 40% = £6.4m

Hi
Thanks all for the interesting discussions recently.

Wanted to add that when Ramelius bought Spectrum, Spectrum had Penny North, and the 355,500 oz was a maiden JORC estimate liable to upgrade (source from BusinessNews Western Australia):

"Spectrum has been busy over the summer drilling up its Penny West gold project with strong gold intersections being reported around the Penny West deposit and the Penny North prospect. Whilst a maiden JORC resource for Penny West of 799Mt grading 13.8g/t gold for 355,500 ounces was announced back in October, the latest drilling program is likely to lead to an upgrade to the Penny West resource.

Penny West produced some 85,000 ounces of gold from 121,000 tonnes grading a very significant 21.8g/t gold during 1991 and 1992. Previous miners left some good ounces at Penny West but what they failed to realise was that another very significant lode was lurking nearby that Spectrum discovered and named Penny North. One drill result at Penny North returned 4m at a stellar 105g/t gold from 151m and another returned 6m at 47.4g/t gold from 150m, with 2m at a huge 140g/t gold.

No doubt Ramelius was watching this activity and looking to time its run at Spectrum before any upgrade occurred. Spectrum had an implied value of around A$231 million based on Ramelius offer – 28 times its share price at the start of the previous year."

On a brighter (but alas off-topic) note:
It is possible Chloroquine may help prevent spread too...
"Chloroquine is effective in preventing the spread of SARS CoV in cell culture. Favorable inhibition of virus spread was observed when the cells were either treated with chloroquine prior to or after SARS CoV infection."

Hope nobody minds me adding that as it provides some glimmer of light.

I didn't mean to imply it was stupid... only that the USA claiming a cure that had been investigated by China one month ago.