focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
We were not far off 12p just two months ago. It doesn't take much. From February into March we may have confirmatory continuation of the JV, confirmation that dewatering if lower aquifer is complete and ventilation work done with resumption of the decline. At this point the DTM is pretty much declared. All this as Ernest Giles assays drop in in a fantastic RNS. If all this happens in the next two months I would think 20p looks very conservative
Daz, it's a credit to your son (and therefore to you) that he's keen to invest rather than spend at that age. It wouldn't be too much right to give advice per se as there are so many unknowns. If it is a proportion of his savings that he's happy to lock away then I would say support his decision. I would suggest it's always good to have other things here for a young person (like Premium Bonds where the money is perfectly safe and can't go down except for the effects of inflation and yet there's the possibility of cash returns by way of prizes, even more so if it becomes regular savings). I often advocate a drip feed approach for various funds but if I had to put a case at all for GGP I would only say this. We've had some false starts and the SP has fallen back. I personally think we've seen the floor but I COULD BE WRONG. The issue is that when the gun fires for real I would rather be all in than with 90% of my potential investment sat there waiting to be drip fed. That is a discussion for both of you though. Good luck!
As per the Sunday Roast, still accumulating here. The window to do so is getting shorter and once the institutions have to buy I will simply hold and enjoy the ride. The only calculation for me then will be the trajectory for when this hits the top of the curve
"... but what’s super important I think and super positive for our shareholders is that we now have the expertise of the world’s largest gold miner deploying it’s expertise to the Havieron project".
Is that a hint that Newmont are here to stay or is SD just being complimentary to our new JV partner (or both)? The wording goes further than I might expect in terms of the welcoming of the expertise comment.
A timely reminder that the middle distance races of this event are over. We are on to the final event - one oval of the track classed as the 400 metre sprint. Back in the day it was the last event of the Olympics known as the 'hoplitodromos' run in military armour. A victory race
I have to be honest and say that a 30p offer now I would certainly consider. It is one of the scenarios of the win/win situation we are in. Do I think we will move on to attain greater than 30p a few years down the line? Yes I do. But, for me, 30p now just for Hav would give me a 300% profit. One downside of the Newcrest takeover by Newmont is the stagnation of available funds to invest by me. My own risk/reward approach would be to take my 300% profit and reinvest some of that very substantial sum in another couple of companies I felt were on the verge of a breakout. Don't get me wrong, if the 30p offer never came I would happily ride the curve until close to production, but this continues to lock in funds I would otherwise be utilising. As for GGP, without Hav I would have to reassess how much (if any) I continue to hold with them depending on emerging news in other tenements. In other words whether it would be worth the risk of retaining my original stake minus the profit or whatever. I don't think there are right or wrong answers here depending on age, circumstances etc. Taking a 30p offer doesn't mean a lack of belief in GGP's longer term value or prospectivity, it just means for some a quicker route to realising profit and using that profit elsewhere imo.
I don't know where pony's came from. Nothing to do with the horse analogy
Good post Gadbury. None of us here can predict day to day or week to week what the SP will be. On a personal level, several times I've thought we've broken through and there is a new floor, yet today I'm back into paper deficit and like many others 10`s of k down from recent highs. People always pop up pretending the day to day movements are exactly what they predicted and they sold on a high and will buy again when it's lower than it is today. What a surprise. Putting aside the major decisions yet to come we aren't the only stock at the mercy of external events right now. That said, when the catalysts kick in and possibly a few pony's announcements regarding other tenements too) even a diabolical global outlook won't be able to stop this horse running through to the line as winner
And the odd donkey
I'm a bit younger Tig but my investments all relate the lifestyle I'm looking to achieve as I retire in the next 15 months or so. Don't get me started on banks! Three banks I'm with for different things have all provided terrible service at various times and trying to actually get to speak to someone is horrendous. It's a bit like my local Sainsbury's shutting all the checkouts and letting everyone struggle with self-service while a queue builds and an overworked assistant runs around trying to approve everyone's alcohol purchase or manually inputting barcodes. The move to costcutting at the expensive of proper customer service is a developing problem in this country
Hi Bamps
My logic on Solgold is for the very reason you mentioned. I personally think they will be bought out at a reasonable premium. I would like to invest more in them but that money is tied in to GGP and I won't be cashing any in until I see this through in as much as we climb to the upper reaches of Lassonde. My real point about GGP is that I see the current JV as a quicker route to realising a good return on my investment (with Telfer processing but remaining as the junior partner with Newmont). As much as I regard a solo venture as realising the most ultimate profit I'm not sure if the uncertainty that comes with a Newmont withdrawal would suit my timescales. It's still win/win, but for me it would be ideal if I'm in a position to use some profit to take a bit of a punt on a Solgold buyout
Hi Tig
I echo those thoughts. I'm hoping clarity with GGP will be reached over the next 3 months. Personally, by virtue of my age I would prefer we mine Havieron in the existing JV to see earlier investment returns. If I were younger or prepared to hold for a lot longer then I would be wanting to become sole owner of Hav/Telfer with the potential for even greater rewards, but likely a bit too distant for my investment goals. My only frustration is on the currently depressed SP limiting my ability to significantly invest elsewhere. Like you it would be great if we see anything between 20-30p by year end. My personal target (subject to revision) is 30p. If I believe it will kick on even further I would hold.
I answer to your question i have very small holdings in some Lithium stocks - although I took significant profits from one of these (Cleantech) before a big drop thankfully. I now just hold a few shares on tickover. More recently I bought into copper/gold miner Solgold. They are in a more risky jurisdiction (Ecuador) but have a potential Tier 1 asset at Cascabel. Their SP is currently marginally above where I bought at but it is 50% down on the year. Most pundits appear to rate it as a buy or strong buy and there is some speculation that it could be bought out. I only have a small foothold in this share so far but progress with GGP would make me evaluate whether any profit taking should be invested there. Interestingly SOLG and GGP have been mirroring each other's SP over recent weeks. This is my own thinking and as ever anyone should do their own research!
Plode I would recommend you consider selling then. You've made about 50% profit. Amazing work for someone that apparently paid no attention to some very knowledgeable posters who spoke as to why the MRE update (up rate) would not drive the SP alone. It's lucky you made as much as you did. What you won't do is prize any long term investors away from their shares. We know what's ahead
Red on my portfolio too. There's a downbeat feel to everything but with what's going on in the middle east with a concern that more countries will be dragged in to conflict, and transport of goods from or through that region becoming more dangerous there is a lot of uncertainty. Couple that with the US looming towards an election where both of the main protagonists are unlikely to stabilise things in the economic or political arenas and we have a prolonged period of uncertainty.
Even with all that however we benefit from exploring and mining in a safe jurisdiction and once the final de-risking elements take place and we have clarity on our JV, I still think this is the best place for my money and it will likely outstrip (in performance terms) the rest of my portfolio put together over the next 12-18 months
Yep I've got a smallish holding with SOLG too. Lot's of rumour over acquisitions but also shorts closing. It might not take much for GGP to see a similar rise
OJ17 I didn't mean to imply that it had, but I can see how you would read it that way. What I meant was that I'm hopeful that evaporation rates and dewatering of the lower aquifer will push on apace and that perhaps this will happen quicker than we hope. Caution as always. Safety is the first priority. But there could be an accumulation of good news in early spring is what I'm thinking
Well I've just cashed in a few premium bonds to add a few more. Couldn't resist
Put it this way, whilst other teams have their playoff matches in the Europa Cup. By the time the Hammers next kick a football in that competition I'm hopeful we may get transformational news ⚒️
I agree Red but I reckon the latter will be so hot on the heals of the former it may as well be seen as one event
Strong summer sunshine evaporating those ponds, news earlier than expected that the decline has resumed and one of the final de-risking events has taken place, a confirmatory DTM perhaps 8-10 weeks away. Hold or buy people. Hold or buy. Two months is the blink of an eye