Member Info for Chuffchuff

Gratifying to see this break back above the 3's. Sam Garrett is bossing this and I'm bewildered why there isn't more excitement at this opportunity when compared to some of the other chat boards on LSE. GLA.

So we should soon be getting news on the proving up if additional resource at Telfer. Assuming there is robust confidence in that and the Havieron DFS is due in less than 3 months, surely the income generated coupled with confidence in the resource increase means there should be a mobilisation at Havieron very soon? When is the gate going to be opened to let the horses bolt?

Ninetops you are all over the place, whether it's the spreadsheets or not. Are you coming or going or going or coming? This was just a few days ago by you:

"Friday 19th Aussie's close at 4. When the auction starts, I'll be watching the order book for the big orders wanting to match the official close price. It's certainly possible I will be one of those who post here, to witness the largest single print - in a minute (at 4.10) that we will ever see. Dozens of millions if not hundreds of millions.

Monday (here) first thing, MM's and Arbies will very quickly re-price to lose the gap.

PI's and traders might push us back to the open, or the profit takers, like me, will push it down to - probably todays level - if not lower."

Completely agree Bigsid. Those of us who mentioned that the more cautious are likely to sell on the up swing as drilling starts but before the results were in were mostly dismissed. Now there is a longer time frame to what some were expecting for assay results. Whatever the reason for repaying Omar's loan the other day it has to be acknowledged that a degree of hedging going on even amongst those who are fully behind the venture. I state again that I am invested but it's evident that people are interpreting pretty ambiguous RNS's in such a way that suits them. I am gobsmacked when I read that some are all in on this share. You may of course get lucky but why risk it all? There is NO certainty until we get the results back from the lab. Drilling through the geology Callum expected does not mean we have hit the motherload. My own stance is to ride it out until results with the reduced stake I hold. If it hits big it will still be a healthy return. I just find it incredible that people can read the same words and put entirely opposing interpretations on it! The reality is that the drill programme is going as expected but there is no hint so far which way this is going. Of course the drilling continues and if they find something special I doubt a lid will be kept on it.

There's so much conjecture. It's always been about the drill and it still is. The raise was done at the right time, but the loan repayment can be taken either way. Don't tell me the CEO doesn't know what's coming and don't let's pretend the whole prepared to extend the loan comment hasn't been agreed with the board for the most appropriate way of communicating the news. It's a small team. That said, I am not going to second guess the drill, but the interpretations on the same news from different camps shows how polarised this board is. We could just wait and not get too carried away with the SP either way...

Whilst I don't pretend to know much about the oil side of things, the RNS about an uplift in resource at PEL94 was only aboht 3 months ago (late May). Unless anyone can point to evidence of a fundamental change (always possible but there needs to be evidence), then I see no reason why the license would not be extended by GEO? This from Oil Review in May:

"With two new sandstone leads identified from petroleum exploration licence (PEL) 94 in Block 2011A offshore Namibia following an independent geoscience evaluation, Geo Exploration Limited has confirmed a materially de‑risked resource base. The sandstone leads are Emerald (in the Albian) and Beryl (in the Cenomanian), which has a combined value of 792 MMbbl of unrisked gross mean prospective resources, with 726 MMbbl attributable to Emerald and 66 MMbbl to Beryl.

Geo Exploration, which holds a 78% working interest in PEL94, is anticipating an yield of approximately 4.31 billion barrels."

Omar Ahmad:

" Today's resource upgrade underscores the tremendous potential we see in PEL 94 and the strong conviction we have in our Namibian licence. Our technical team has done a terrific job delivering

new, material leads on the eastern side of the block. With excitement building across Namibia—and particularly in the Walvis Basin—we are actively progressing farm-out discussions to secure the best outcome for our shareholders".

Like I say, unless anyone has evidence to the contrary then we are only 3 months further down the road from this positive news.

Although I'm learning not to get to hyped now about certain benchmark catalysts I'm also curious about how this works in actuality. Surely passive tracker funds must automatically mirror? If they do so would those funds more actively managed not be caught out if they did not also seek to buy in? If they don't also buy they will surely be behind the curve? Furthermore there is a growth in ETF's and obviously gold is the place to be right now. Remarkably Australia superannuation funds roll in at third place worldwide - punching way above their weight for a relatively small population due to the emphasis on pension schemes as part of people's wage structure. I really can't call what will happen in practice and like I say most of us are now primed for disappointment, but whilst I don't care for too much ramping I'm trying to envisage how these can do anything but move the SP northwards?

Hi Silverlight. I know it can seem a bit unbecoming mentioning a successful trade but when things are done with transparency, whether by me or others, as things were foretold then I don't see a problem. I do find it crass when people talk about amounts in monetary terms as one person's perception of wealth is quite different from another's. What I do have an issue with is those that deramp continuously and then pretend they've bought back in at a low. In the same sense however others here seem to suggest that risk barely exists and that results are nailed on. If they were then Omar wouldn't raise when he did. As I and others intimated, the timing was now because it hedges against the possibility of less spectacular results (note I say "possibility" not "probability"). I personally now think there is a good chance of a significant discovery.

I know some names on here are also from GGP, and for the record I had a quite antagonistic battle on here with someone from there that kept popping up here who was uninvested and doing nothing but attack the share and attack the CEO. What I did learn at GGP was done the hard way (I'm not cross-ramping this by mentioning them either - it's just a salient example). I bought in to them at silly time after the SP had been pumped to quite ridiculous heights at the time. Nevertheless the underpinning resource was still there. My strategy involved averaging down over many years to break even and then make profit. I would get my head above water and then a raise would happen. I'm lucky that buying Telfer changed everything. Although I'm in a very healthy position there now my portfolio is spectacularly overweight in that one stock, even though it is massively derisked and able to push on. In that sense I have no regrets. Nevertheless I wish I had learnt to take profit at certain times as some savvy people did, and buy back for less later. Timing is never perfect, but my point is that this journey is not risk-free. It is perhaps a greater risk to exit completely thinking a cheaper price will be available, but I've learnt it can be smart to take a bit of sensible profit along the way, to de-risk and then hopefully reinvest. My experience told me that pre-results is not a bad time. I appreciate that is unpopular because those words in effect promote selling, which is the opposite of where I want this share to go ultimately. But integrity is a real thing. I've bought a little back just now with some of my top-slice but if I miss the boat with the rest it's not an issue because the bulk of my investment in GEO is still here and ready for results. I had misgivings about Omar's comms back in December and January but his timing and more level-headed dealings over the past 6 months or so have steadied the ship. I tend to disregard the extremes at either end of a chat board, but there's a wiser path somewhere in the middle on most occasions. I have no problem with people disregarding my tuppence worth either. GLA

Good raise price timed well and very modest. Nevertheless the caution of those of us who envisaged this scenario to top slice was largely ignored. Having top sliced at 400% profit and taken some out before a 15-20% correction from the peak it's still reasonable to think this has massive upside potential. I just think there is a balance to be had. I have never said this will plummet on a raise and Omar's timing was spot on with this one, but little credence was given to those who saw this coming. A raise before results is actually a great hedge by Omar. There are more savvy ways to go on a journey than hold, hold, hold.

With respect JC, it is because of awareness of the Lassonde Curve that some will ride the first upward curve up to the point of discovery and then bail (or at least take out a proportion) before the orphan period where funding whether through raising, JV or whatever becomes a significant issue over a fairly long timeline. It's beholden on serious investors to recognise that scenario

It's possible to be in a high risk share but to mitigate against loss as the minimum, and that's exactly how some of have played this. Some might want to see this all the way through to the second (main) peak, assuming the discovery is good - but that is a long journey and not everyone has those years to park their investment. That doesn't mean this share doesn't have a good short term opportunity - quite clearly it does. I learnt a lot from the journey of other explorers/miners and it's served me well here to date. What I'm less sure about is the oil side if things and to what extent (if that comes off soon) that could help fund development.

This was partly my thinking behind my morning post Ezhik. Truth is nobody really knows but time will tell. Nevertheless it was reason enough for me to hedge a bit. Unfortunately I get a sense that to some (not all), top slicing or selling some after a run comes across as a betrayal of sorts, whereas to me it is just caution. I'm certainly no day trader. In my opinion today's slight drop was a good result considering a more major correction might have occurred. People can rest pretty easy over the weekend. It was notable that the news feed only mentioned GEO today in terms of the drop and there was nothing in the feed as far as I can see about the significant rise yesterday! Have a good weekend everyone.

Sorry for the spellings. Missing my glasses!

Whilst I agree there's some sound reasoning behind your post JC (and many LTH's appear to agree I have used a slightly different approach. I have top-sliced twice sinse I've been invested purely to mitigate against loss. Of course that means I may not realise the gains that others have who have left everything in, but I'm very comfortable knowing that all gains here are free and I've already used profit elsewhere. I still won't be disappointed if this takes off today obviously the gains made already still provide a healthy pot on which to build. You are right, no one can predict the timing of a raise and u suspect Omar may look at this depending on in the field analysis of cores before there are properly ratified lab results. We all hope they will be amazing in which case a raise can readily be absorbed on an SP rise. If on the other hand more drilling is required without conclusively viable results in this phase then it would make sense to make the rause early. Top slicing sooner mitigate against that eventuality even if my own stance has been overly cautious. It allows a buy back in pot in that event. When all is said and done I hope this just runs and runs. We are here to make money not for sentiment. Of course if something does happen with the oil farm-out soon we are in new territory. GLA whatever your strategy.

"It wouldn’t surprise me one bit if Newmont deliberately positioned the high-grade stockpiles so that production “surprised to the upside” for the first 4–5 months. That way, they could facilitate a clean, well-supported exit and close the sale with maximum kudos and profit."

Hi Element1. I do respect a great many of your posts and I know you added a caveat to this statement at the beginning but I am uncomfortable with this type of speculation when there appears to have been an entirely amicable transition from Newmont with landed GGP a superb deal. It feels like a bit of overreach to me without firm evidence and whilst I get all the concerns about Macquarie's broker note etc I don't think it helps when everything else seems pretty well reasoned. It serves us to keep a good relationship with Newmont going forward. Just me perhaps...

It was always going to happen. Some were only here for short term profit up to the start of the drill campaign, others have been spooked by those taking their profit and felt the SP won't stick. Everyone else holding is now likely to be waiting for drill results unless more tree shaking occurs. Whatever is said and whatever the geophys, whatever the provenance of those involved it still involves a gamble of sorts to be holding now. I did top-slice again as a protective measure on capital, but quite happy to let the rest of my stake sit it out. Results will now determine what happens. Let's hope it doesn't have to go too deep for something decent 🤞

I don't know what happened to my capitals. They were there when I posted.

it will be interesting what the aisc gets reported at for this quarter. hard one to call perhaps. the gold price is helping no end, but i'm conscious that shaun said we would have a period of lower grade recovery before we push on a bit and bamps alluded to this earlier (i think it was today anyway?! there's been a lot of froth since and it's hard to decipher at times so i have some sympathy for timber trader). we have additional costs comprising of new mining fleet and haul truck refurb, tailings capacity upgrades, an extensive development drive/exploratory drill programme - the list goes on. but we have existing profit and other catalysts to come. with what happened after asx i suspect things might have got a bit tricky without the continuing climes in gold price but i still have learnt to manage my expectations where the next quarterlies are concerned. hopefully we do get the widely expected buy in ****ly and that sees us through to the havieron dfs. i am tempering things in the hope that we get some good news reporting on what benefits the expenditure has brought us. i suspect a lesson has been learned in that regard. steady as she goes...

Do find it interesting on the kind of trades that shift the SP. Don't get me wrong - there are MANY richer than I but in relative terms most "large" trades are a few thousand pounds. IF this ends up with the potential being spoken about there will be trades of 100's of thousands of pounds. For avoidance of doubt I took my initial stake out after I first bought in at 0.08 a little while back. A free ride since, except as news and expectation (along with sentiment) has returned I have drip fed a bit more in so a day like today is very welcome. I did wonder if Omar's drum roll tweet was a curve ball and thought the oil farm out might have been in play to set the cat amongst the pigeons. Time will tell! This is a very small stake of my overall portfolio but it's the type of scenario that can precipitate a very healthy return. Low stakes high potential return is where I place GEO. Of course we might all wish we had those 100's of k's in if this turns big but the those early in the game should walk away with a decent return. I can't yet agree the drill results are a shoe-in, but I'm in all the same.

Worse still, they won't be able to cash their giro as the post office will also be shut.

Wasn't further follow-up drilling happening at Atlantis and maybe a few other locations? Is there any word on this or timescale?