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I agree with many of the recent posters. Our situations differ and whilst many of us will reasonably presume there is more profit to be had in a 5 year hold, it may not fit with an individual's strategy. If someone decides to sell in 1 years time at 18p yet the SP rises to 80p 4 years later it doesn't mean it was the wrong decision. Sometimes people are holding on to create a legacy or have relative youth on their side. 18p may be enough for some to make their own life ore comfortable. I'm very much in a "wait and see" situation. If other investments come good then I'll be more inclined to hold, if they don't and we get at least a reasonable rise over 12 months then a sell me be on the cards.
Times have been trying, but whereas I normally bail and stop my losses to move on and make better profits elsewhere, as painful as this has been I've averaged down massively with GGP. In some respects it makes my portfolio a bit overexposed in this one share but it also provides opportunity for a dramatic uplift as our expectations finally get realised.
When the level of unpleasantness has reached the depths of Xenophobia a line has been crossed. It shouldn't have any place in society and certainly not on this board
Unfortunately a quick glance at Don's X platform indicates he directs people to podcasts perpetuating misleading covid vaccine info. It doesn't stand up to fact checking so whatever knowledge he may have he may also verge towards the fantastical
All self-penned from real characters re-imagined
Bob: (Contd) He’s noticed for the time that he’s in, but forgotten until the door barges open again tomorrow.
The Professor: He is the quietest of the regular ensemble. Old and wise he sits in the corner from when the bar opens until when it closes. His pint seems to last all day. It always looks full. The only time I’ve seen him angry was when Buster confronted Derek once as he went to the toilet. The minor fracas jolted his pint and a bit of stale beer ran over the mine plans and documents he seemingly studies all day. It dripped on to his corduroys adding to the gravy stain from yesterday’s meat pie. Quiet as he is, he is the mythical believer in what’s left in the mine. Actually what is left is many multiples of what was dragged out of the earth many years before. With his charts and his calculations he’s been in contact with the one person who will make this work. He has his detractors and his believers. Will the Greatland Tavern’s regulars ever get rich? Rich enough to uproot and lead to the spin-off soap set in a land far away?
We watch on. Each of these characters is tiresome, irritating, roguish, loveable, human, frail – or all of these at once. I shout at the telly and tell my wife I’ve had enough. But I bet you I tune in tomorrow…
Set in a former mining town a motley (sometimes unlikely - but always entertaining) bunch of characters play out their lives on our screen. The premise is that the long closed mine has the locked in promise of riches that was unreachable when it was closed decades before. Now the riches almost exist only in folklore but for the investigations of the professor. Will this ragtail bunch of characters ever get the mine working again? Most scenes play out in The Greatland Tavern.
The players:
Buster: A former miner and decent boxer in his day he got hit a few too many times. It’s hard sometimes to tell if he’s punch-drunk or simply drunk. Each morning he wakes too early. Dehydrated his banging headache tells him he was sparring again yesterday. Not physical sparring like he used to do, but the verbal type. He opens his phone and there it is. He scrolls down to find new overnight accusations. He’s accused of being a repetitive bore yet again. This time he’s going to prove he isn’t. He’s heading back to the proverbial ring, and he’s not even got out of bed to take a pee yet…
Layla: She’s relatively new to the soap but has the age and character of someone that’s been in the town for years (and don’t we know it!). She chews relentlessly on a bag of Werther’s Originals, helping to contort her face with bruised scorn throughout each episode. She’s the ‘Dot Cotton’ of this soap. There’s something about her history that is sad and harrowing. She wants to be liked but tends to over articulate by compensation, losing friends and pretends she doesn’t care but she tries to make new ones. She admires the professor and wants to speak like him but it never quite comes out that way. We as the viewer get tired of her shenanigans and hold her with suspicion, but she is one of the greatest draws on viewing figures.
Derek: He’s a bit flash having made his money in business. He’s not a big player outside this town but he remains here because it’s small enough for him to be noticed. The Greatland Tavern is a bit beneath him but he enjoys popping in to regale the part of the Tavern that was revamped for the yuppies back in the 80’s with his latest success. He talks loud enough though so he can be heard through in the ‘other bar’ (as he calls it) where the locals sit. He has to walk through there to get to the gents and as he does so most bury their heads in their pints pretending they haven’t heard a word. Because they always do this he will repeat the same story in the yuppie bar the next day. And the next day. He thinks they just don’t get it. They know they do but this is a kind of sport.
Bob: An associate of Derek he is a bit more flight of foot. He’s a party animal. Work hard play hard. Everything is 100 miles an hour like a puppy who licked the white powder off the cistern in the toilets. Mostly cheery but irritable too. It’s all water off a ducks back with him though. He barrels into
Then
Something strange happened with me yesterday. I didn't wake up and check the SP when the markets opened. Freshly back from a Greek holiday I fed the birds, went for a walk, chatted to a neighbour, picked some tomatoes, had a beer and then eventually checked the price and then the rns and scanned this board after market close. A bit of a bad day maybe, but you know what? After this brief check-in I'm going to do it this way more often. The drivers of the SP are still a way off. I'm not so blinkered as to have my head in the sand and will of course react to anything majorly concerning, but I advocate a chill approach on this one. Nothing much can be done until certain issues are settled. I'll prick my ears up the.
I'm still buying in relatively small quantities. I believe all the most likely scenarios will see us move up to varying degrees, although the least favoured option for me is a cheap buy out. I would like us to own 100% of Hav but I still have a niggle over Telfer. I know it's not in Newmont's interests financially to hardball over Telfer given the closure and "make good" costs, but it's still a niggle. Building our own plant would just kick the road to riches even further down the road.
Given how professional and respectful SD has been during the whole takeover procedure I hope this has bought him sufficient favour for there to be an amicable and reasonable transfer of Telfer in the event we are offered the 100% route. But this is business. I would be more worried if we didn't have the board or the backing as we would be easy prey for vultures. Hopefully it is now clear that we aren't so easy to pick off and so the amicable route is best, not least if GGP's exploration expertise may be utilised in a JV in the future.
I'm as frustrated as anyone about the short term SP damage, which I also think is down to lack of market certainty. That will come, but it may still be months away depending on what route opens up. If Newmont say "let's go mining", I wouldn't mind just for the avoidance of stress!
Thanks Hippo. I'm with you on that
I'm surprised there's not much store put into what seems like an exceptional relationship GGP is maintaining with First Nations people (vis-á-vis the latest rns). It may not make for SP gaining headlines, but this ethical approach (aside to being aligned with my own ideals and in line with the boundaries I place on my own investments) is going o be critical going forward. I've said before that on both environmental (green) grounds, and ethical partnerships, GGP under the leadership of SD appears to be showing the way. Dont underestimate how important this will be in years to come. Not many mining companies can bring an untainted approach to the bargainig table. You may not agree with these ideals personally, but there is serious clout in these matters that over the next 5-10 years will be the benchmark for others.
I think the Wyloo money is buidling fortifications on top of already sturdy defences. The type where you can remain protected while shooting arrows and pouring hot tar on raiders. The message is clear that in spite of a weakened SP the comany is not ripe for a cheap raid. This is the right message at this time until the Newmont/Newcrest takeover is done. They will not be able to call our bluff with the backing we have. They will know that either we move on as joint partners to mine Hav, or we take it on ourselves. It is for me the removal of perceived weakness that enables us to go on the 'B' of the bang from the starting gun.
Prespective is all. Hopefully we lose some of the drama queen's who tell us the end of the world is nigh, whilst equally some of the hype around the ASX was getting out of proportion when we were 50% down on just a few weeks back.
For me the best thing from today is that SD has demonstrated he is no gambler. Even in these conditions the ASX might have given a slight uplift because of Aussie II's in the know. But that can wait. SD has also demonstrated a respect for (and commitment to) long term PI's like you and me. That matters, and for me personally it makes a difference to my trust levels which took a knock after the leak and what I felt at the time could have been a slightly more emphatic response. The board, the backers, and even the legal team backing off from the ASX are instilling greater confidence from me personally. Let's not expect too much yet. This Newmont **** is still a bit of a drag anchor, but there will be serious news both about Hav (and I really hope) about our other JV's and solo tenements in the weeks and months to come. Let's get back above 9 first and push on. No luck required here, just steely nerves and acumen
Are people really thinking this erroneous valuation will be used once the takeover is done for GGP to purchase at this out of date price?
Should read "ripple effect" not "triple effect"
I continue to believe that SD is extremely capable and is working tirelessly to bring about the best outcomes for GGP. I have always accepted that some of this will be played out behind closed doors... BUT (and it is a big 'but'), there is a time when an MD needs to address sentiment and the SP. You see a snippet on here of misgivings (even setting aside the obvious trolls and baiters). For almost the first time I have observed some faithful voices being honest enough to hint at some trepidation. Now is the time to address shareholders directly even if news is a few weeks or months down the road. Others do it. Take this example from Bradda Head:
"In this letter, the Board wants to address the recent decline in our share price and provide an update on the status of our highly prospective Projects and emphasise why we believe our current share price level, which is significantly below our actual listing price, is undervalued and offers an extremely attractive entry level into Bradda Head." They then went on to address various points.
Whether or not an action like that directly affects the SP is almost an irrelevance. It does however keep the faithful engaged" - confidence is all before the triple effect on sentiment becomes a tidal wave. There doesn't have to be any 'bad-mouthing' of partners, just reassurance and recognising of the bruising ride PI's are on right now. All imo
Yes I was one wo got caught at the 9's. I had broken even having averaged down at about 8.5. Once it rose from mid 7's I regarded 9 as a breakthrough... and then the leak occurred. The fundamentals haven't really changed but it's clear that sentiment is fragile and more store is placed on negative news than good news. It is bewildering to think that a rise back up to 9 now will bring someone a 50% return. Serious money to be made for some, but I think for many the averaging down keeps having to go down further and I'm not quite prepared to go over strength re while my other stocks are turning a corner. This will come good (my one and only niggle is the lower we go the risk of a stupidly cheap buy out). The Newctest/Newmont issue has had a far more profound effect on this share because of the quite unique market conditions we're in now. I'm not buying more but I'm not selling either. The other side may be 6 months hence unless there is a startling RNS about new assay results. If some of my other shares get the uplift I'm projecting then I may buy more in if the SP is still pegged this low in 2/3 months. I doubt any of us really expected us to drop quite this far (setting aside those who use this boardfor sport and who don't believe their own words). A little news could stop the rot until bigger news breaks.
The one thing I've learnt with this share is to manage expectation. Do I think there will be an uptick on the ASX listing? Yes. Do I think there will be an uptick on the MRE? Yes. But I do think after each there will be some subsequent short term profit taking that will suppress a strong uplift. I honestly don't see this moving massively until Newmont/Newcrest is done and dusted. I personally hope we will get a DTM not long after because that is the one and only thing to release the potential. Complications if we are not doing this with Newmont will lead to protracted uncertainty and whilst I still believe we will get there even if we go it alone the markets are still fragile right now and confidence is all. With market dynamics, the POG forecasts, Telfer availability a new year DTM is what I am waiting on and I'm not going to get over excited about much else in the meantime. A massive surge from Aussie Institutional Investments will help but I'll take that as a bonus rather than a given. 5 months more feels a long time after these few years but that's when I expect to see the brakes come off.
Things look positive from the Basin East extension programme and the latest drill results. Hopefully the September MRE update will push the SP closer to the levels it should be at
Plode you're the guy who buys a polyester t-shirt in Primark for £3.99 and then pops into Wetherspoons to brag about getting it for £3 aren't you?