Member Info for B777CAPTAIN

Thanks Yeslam.

My simplistic calculations of SLB have been based on the F24 results. We made an SLB profit of €244.8m on 39×Aircraft + Engines. I therefore always take the SLB as very approximately €6.2m per Aircraft. I know that some Aircraft came in on a different ownership model.

So for me, with approximately 230 more Aircraft to be delivered over 7 years. The 21% SLB profit increase now, raises our profit by €40m per year. This is the start though. Metals prices are likely to continue rising fast and this may result in a meaningful profit increase over time.

I know. Too many posts. Sorry!

Chatgpt calculated for me that SLB profits will rise 21% due to the increased metals prices over the last 2 months.

This is what I understand.

The "Standard escalation " is a formula which includes metals prices. Therefore if metals significantly increase in price such as now, the escalation in cost that Wizz will pay for the Aircraft also increases. However it is a shared cost between Airbus and Wizz, Airbus will substantially absorb the increased cost. Therefore the increase in metals prices benefits Wizz at the point of Sale Leaseback.

It says that Wizz will pocket between 70% and 80% of the difference between what they pay Airbus and the current list price. This suggests that the lessor will charge 20%-30% in fees.

Yeslam

According to Chatgpt (I take no responsibility) "standard escalation " is much lower than market inflation. This suggests that significant benefit can occur from rising raw material prices (when they've been rising as much as they have in the last 2 months).

Thanks for that Yeslam. I know that my understanding of the SLB is extremely simplistic. I'd like to know:

1. How much do Airbus escalate the price Wizz pay? is it directly proportional to the increase in list price forced by rising commodity prices (Airbus will regularly increase list prices in the case of rapidly rising raw material prices)? Do Wizz just pay a proportion of the rising costs to Airbus? Do Airbus hedge commodity prices at the time an order is made?

2. How much discount do Wizz give to the lessors on the current list price?

It's so hard to know what benefit Wizz will get from future SLB. Varadi did say that SLB represents cash up front rather than cash down the road.

Johnbri-: You're misunderstanding me. In a previous post I was talking about the scrap value that Ryanair have in their B737-800's. I'm not talking about that now. My point is that new A321-NEO's will have much higher list price going forward due to the extreme raw material inflation which we are currently going through. What this means is that Wizz will buy the Aircraft as they are delivered from Airbus at the previously agreed price. It will then (in most cases, Yeslam has a good grasp of this) sell the Aircraft to the lessor at the current list price. This means the sale/Leaseback profits will be significant (certainly significantly more than previous forecasts).

To an extent Wizz, in investment terms, is not just an Airline play, it's also a play on rising raw material prices.

If I'm wrong, please explain why. This is just what I'm thinking. I'm not pretending to be an expert in this area.

Johnbri

As you know being a highly qualified Aircraft Engineer, carbon fibre prices are rising faster than Aluminium. Probably around 25% increase this year and accelerating.

John. I fly for a major Middle Eastern Airline. I have been a a widebody Captain for 24 years. I was a First Officer for 12 years before that. I have 21,000 flying hours. There, pretty well, you have my CV.

The A321-NEO is a 95T Aircraft with 35 tonnes of Aluminium and 3.5 tonnes of copper. It also has a small amount of precious metals in the computer wiring. The increase in raw material prices, makes a significant difference to the value of the Aircraft. Given the high demand for A320 NEO family Aircraft and the rapidly inflating raw material prices, you tell me that these Aircraft will not be worth significantly more on delivery than they were at the time of order.

Even without the significant recent increase in metals prices, an A321-NEO list price had risen 6.2% in 2025 to October 31st.

So, John, what is your Wizz Air share price forecast for year end 26'?

I've been watching metals prices for the last 15 years. I've never seen movement before, like we have now.

Yeslam and D9

I agree that my last posts regarding commodity prices were somewhat exaggerated. The point however is very valid. Wizz Air, Easyjet and Ryanair all have huge orders for Aircraft at fixed prices. The commodity prices related to the production of Aircraft have exploded in the last couple of months. I'm looking at copper this morning up 3.6% (right now). Aluminium will probably be up about half that.

A321-NEO's are in very tight supply as well, they've had a 6.5% increase in headline price in the last year. I would guess that will significantly accelerate now due to the commodity price inflation.

If you say that Wizz had a base value of £10. It probably now has a base value of £12 with expected Aircraft value increases.

Bobbins

You could run the competition. Shall we start with Easter. So many posters come and go over a year. Looking 1 year ahead is difficult.

I'll go for £25 by year end 26'. £19 for Easter.

A final award goes to Robbren. Nice poster of the year.

https://youtube.com/shorts/boDkM6qZrDY?si=KHTg-NsZQJHeZS2N

Prize for Christmas share price prediction goes to Yeslem and D9Ber1:

https://youtube.com/shorts/ezjj44iZaho?si=LXBvR16h-fPsGD_L

Prize for most useful posters of the year. You could have made money trading off these guys. Goes to Yeslam and Lucas.

https://youtube.com/shorts/X3UfmLTi1vE?si=BjMfHbp5n3k5nfB_

Prize for funny poster of the year goes to Stille. She made me laugh when she said that her least favourite colours were orange and purple. Well my least favourite colour is navy blue:

https://youtube.com/shorts/aiLmF8NDFs8?si=2TJJ3dnJw1s_ePlm

Wooden Spoon for share price Christmas prediction goes to Johnbri. I have my favourite childhood song for him. Sloop Johnbri. "Drinking all night" "Got into a fight" "I feel so broken"... perfect, very appropriate.

https://youtube.com/shorts/mG8YLnPFHVg?si=qrSoRpCL7ruoLsc7

GaryDav and Garonne get my special "killed by volatility award:

https://youtube.com/shorts/cOrf670hvZQ?si=fByaQ4b3PPVesIio

Bear of the year goes to Kpa1 mostly because he's still with us. He was closely run by Davidkov and Pogo. Here's a video of me and Kpa1:

https://youtube.com/shorts/TGu7DXxejO0?si=tkBzXhBWBJbVQOhV

The good questions award goes to Taut:

https://youtube.com/shorts/4zGYo5qHY0U?si=FiJsieM_tX7Oc_Fh

I don't have video's for Stan and OTCD but they share the technical/Macro/ Geopolitical analysis award.

Sorry for anyone who I forgot.

Merry Christmas to all posters here. It's been a fun year...🥳🥳 onwards and upwards next year.

Awards ceremony to come:

Our Pre-H1 Earnings fun forecast:

GaryDav 1165

Stille 1400 (war dependent)

Runner 13.50/15 Xmas

Stan36 1399

Taut 1080

Johnbri4 920

D9Ber1 1300

Robbren 11.50 to 12

B777Captain 14 by Xmas

Yeslam 1300 by end of year

Sapi72 1235 results / 1500 year end

Damiansasha 12.40 year end

Coffee123 1400 by Xmas

Sundenza 1450 by year end

HPJHPJ 1200 by year end

ForeverNever 900

Strike123 £14

It looks like I'm the only positive poster left.

My view is:

- we've had a better than expected Christmas, combine that with profits from the 3 Aircraft we sold and didn't Leaseback, Q3 could end up being a positive surprise.

- Oil Prices are falling and are expected to continue to fall, and quite significantly.

- There'll be a new batch of institutional investors coming in after the New Year. All anticipating a good summer and a serious turnaround.

- The Aircraft that we have for an agreed price are likely to continue to appreciate in value due to Aluminium and copper prices rising (ok, not as much as I previously suggested 🙄).

I'm expecting a volatile but steady rise to £25 by Christmas 2026.

Kpa

I just flew from the middle East to London. Landed right now.

Sorry! Double was an exaggeration. More like 40% in line with Copper and Aluminium.

Ryanair's share price is surging currently due to the value of it's scrap metal. The scrap B737-800's are worth about double what they were a year ago.

Sadly Wizz doesn't own it's metal. The Aircraft on order though are being bought at a price agreed a couple of years ago, so hopefully that will keep helping with the bottom line.

Stille

Congratulations on the banked cash.

And yes I'll give you that, Kpa has some taste. No judge of a good stock though.