Member Info for Adw198

It might well be that a raise isn’t needed for future Heron wells, if one of my he more creative solutions is found but there is some seriously wishful thinking form Thorn claiming

“Mongolian Government/Petrovis and DQE all supportive and willing to help“.

Isn’t it the Mongolians we’re waiting on to approve the deal to sell? When have the other entities named offered financial support? Why didn’t they help out last year when instead the company raised $9m at a circa 40% discount?

Irrespective of funding producing wells the company will need funds just to keep the lights on as the cash burn seems pretty sharp, based on there being just $2.5m left at year end despite the big raise in June.

Shows the level of insecurity that discussing things like whether there’s an unlimited storage space for the oil is considered “attacking”. On a Saturday night too!

I’m sure the Telegram group you run is a more productive use of your time mate :)

I thought it was being trucked to PCs facilities nearby in Mongolia, where it was being stored whilst we await a deal to sell it? If that’s wrong no worries.

Can you explain how / why the oil can be stored in trucks and / or exported without a deal to export it?

Hi Margartias / Tenbag

You’d do well to at least consider risks / issues rather than always just assume the best. I tried telling you this when you insisted there was already a deal to sell. Which you got completely wrong. Liekwise when Abzzba insisted H2 was already producing.

How much storage space is realistic if MATD are indeed producing 250bopd. Seems an awful lot of liquid to me.

800bopd is definitely not “expected” as per an RNS. They’re looking into whether higher might be possible but that’s not confirmed and nor is the figure of 800bopd.

There are significant risks here

I’d be surprised if 250bopd has been averaged since production started. My main reason for thinking that is a concern about how much storage space there is for MATD oil. Also, it wouldn’t be a great shock to hear that a new well in Mongolian winter has encountered a few teething problems. There’s also a risk that the deal doesn’t complete - given how long it’s dragged on it’s hardly indicative of a happy path.

Aside from H1 the biggest risk is whether the field is going to be able to give producing wells, given the first 2 are currently running at a 1 in 2 commercial strike rate. How will future wells be funded in the above context, especially given the significant cash burn just to keep the company in tea and biscuits.

Oh I’m definitely on the moral highground compared to you Tenbag, but let’s stick to the company.

Do you still expect dilution, or are you still claiming they’ll be a Dividend this year?

Tenbag expected £5m - £10m winter revenue, a truly ridiculous prediction but he’s entitled to his rampy opinions. But when that figure currently sits at ZERO one might expect him to be disappointed and perhaps even offer some humility about being so spectacularly wrong. But no, instead he posts every day about what people he’s apparently filtered are saying.

He should stick to his echo chamber Telegram group, he can get away with it there.

Ah ok so when you repeatedly told us to expect an RNS within days you were lying as you in fact think they won’t RNS having a deal to sell.

I disagree that wouldn’t be a material bit of news but that’s just a subjective opinion - the underlying point is you’ve been caught lying by your own terms.

Hey WOS, given YOU claimed a deal was days away in November and YOUR expectations haven’t materialised, how disappointed are YOU?

So they’re so desperate for oil they’re going to sign off a deal to export it - and your evidence for this is the fact they currently haven’t signed off a deal which is why we can’t sell anything and haven’t received a penny?

That’s not a bad write up. If anyone wants a high risk punt at these prices as I mentioned there’s definitely some potential. Shame you (and me!) all bought in much higher when you were also insisted it was cheap :)

I’ve not looked at the site, their reasoning or (most importantly) their track record. I doubt you’ll be rushing to buy the other 24 picks either.

I have no agenda here but you’re invested and massively down so you do.

“the Mongolian Government who are so desperate for the oil for their new refinery may not sign off the sales agreement or grant an export license”

Are you really saying that because the Mongols are desperate for oil of course they’ll approve a deal to send it to China?!

No RNS says it’s going to produce more. They’re looking into it.

I don’t apply anything to a random site picking 25 companies, although there is obviously upside potential here if / when funding gets sorted, if / when they get H1 producing more and if / when they manage to get H2 producing.

Lots of ifs, not the banker you lot like to insist

Very naive to take no interest in if / how a company can magic up 4-6 producing wells when a loss making operation.

But your money, so if you want to stick your head in the sand and just assume a happy path that’s your call.

No it’s not noise to ask if there’s a deal to sell the oil, how much can be stored in the absence of a deal and what the monthly cash burn is even if / when a deal does land. Or how the producing wells can be funded.

Just because the answers are unpalatable, it doesn’t make the questions invalid.

Morning WOS

You told us in Nov that Zeus said the deal sign off was coming in days. Obviously that’s materialised so how do you feel about that given it’s a negative outcome against your own expectations?

Similarly you repeatedly asserted there would be a Dec RNS with news on multiple fronts again including deal sign off, so again I’m keen to hear how disappointed you are about your expectations not being met?

Abzzba is right I’m not currently invested.

But Abzzba told everyone I was vermin and not invested when I was - because I had the temerity to openly discuss risks and issues. Nearly all of which have materialised.

Just go back and read what the likes of Abzzba, WOS, Tenbag (and his multiple aliases), Proquo, Hahm (RIP), margaritas, gravy train and Thorn were saying a few months ago. Note how wrong they were, note how they never acknowledge bad news, how when things don’t turn out as they insisted it would they just pivot to a new an argument. Note how much money they’ve lost and why they need to convince people this is a banker.

Then study the cash burn and consider what’s going to improve that. At some point this might be a good investment - for now it’s a potential car crash

@umnd

Thanks for setting out such clear and reasoned figures. My only minor quibble would be I suspect the current day to day costs will be a bit higher due to the renewables investment. Admittedly I don’t think any of us could have a stab at what is being spent there, but I’m mindful they specifically referenced some of the raise going on that.

As Doc says a raise seems inevitable because if H2 does get resolved (which is the best case) we know that will take circa $2.5m even outside of any needed remediation. So that’s nearly all the money gone.

Obviously your figures assumed production and income from sales. The more I think about the more I think there must be an increasing risk that H1 production either gets halted or slowed in the short term because surely there’s a limit to the storage and practically you can’t just keep producing without a buyer. I guess it depends how close they thinks a deal is.