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Solid update, nothing majorly new but some interesting snippets and the 250-300k segilola figure stood out as that’s the short term catalyst.

Original reserve base was 517k…

produced to end 2025 369k, stockpile 54k oz, forecast this year 80k = 503oz, so in theory nothing really left at year end.

Whilst we all think / know it’ll be extended, the continued lack of concrete confirmation to the market is constraining us imo. Or giving a chance to top up low!

He’s sounds very bullish on Douta - the previous target was between 200k -500k oxide ounces which was yesterday described as a target of 500k, ie the lower range wasn’t referenced.

Sounds like it’s going to be a super busy time with all the drill results and Douta financing / government updates.

Just a matter of letting it play out.

Morning

Segen said he expects $300m cash by the end of this calendar year. Obviously it can flex up or down a bit depending on production and Gold price but it’s fairly easy to see the basis for that figure.

Even if we only sell 50k Oz across Q23&4 at $4200 using $1200AISC that’s another $150m profit. Appreciate we’re spending circa $30m on explorations but they are very very pessimistic figures too.

60k sold at a $3500 margin obviously gives $210m profit.

The war has been a surprising negative to Gold but I think medium term it just means Gold stays elevated for longer.

Great numbers as expected - the AISC a real positive.

I also noted the slightly limited reference to Guitry. Perhaps that’s not delivered any material drill results as it has been quite a while without any drill results / updates.

I think Douta is going to be the real company maker here because we know the base case is already super compelling with good reason to think it’ll get bigger and better. The only question appears to be how much better it’ll get.

Very speculative on my part but I wouldn’t be shocked with a Tuesday RNS ahead of the Investor Meets the same day. Possibly an update on HOT re financing - he seemed to imply both that and mining licence approval was close.

He did actually explain the reason for the behind schedule results. They are / were pretty materially behind schedule on all fronts and the lack of results from Segilola in particular did give me a slight worry, but even that appears to be the fact they don’t want to prematurely release results without fully understanding how accessible it is. I expect Guitry to be next update.

Anyway, great update today to get things rolling and particularly pleasing to see him keep referencing constriction starting this year. It seems Douta will continue to grow and grow against already impressive economics.

Q1 financials should be the week after next too.

If (when imo) Gold takes off again I suspect we’ll really start to rerate.

Hi Eyes

You’re right it’s an unusually mature board and I think most of us value different perspectives.

I now have a trading pot and a core holding so play it in a similar way. For transparency my trading pot is currently uninvested and I’d probably want low / mid 70s to get back in. I hope it never comes as my core holding is 4 times the size so up up up suits me better! I’m massively overweight here too.

I was a touch underwhelmed with the last two releases. Obviously everyone can have a different view but against my own expectations it wasn’t quite what I thought.

I have zero doubts about the company but we have seen it bounce around with Gold which is outside of our control, so that’s my main reasoning.

@Genghis

My understanding is material results would need to be released to the market, hence my thought process.

They’ve continued to push back the timeframe for the mine life update. For the amount of drilling and the timeframe they stated it’s a touch disappointing but it’s mining and delays happen - not the first time and won’t be the last.

I’m very positive overall but I don’t regard the continued lack of results as a positive.

My reading is they’re not getting knockout drill results from Segilola, hence not releasing anything. I’m absolutely convinced they’ll extend it and probably materially, but they’re probably having to go underground to do so, which obviously needs a firmer plan.

Agree with what you tweeted @BBN about Douta sounding particularly positive - that should continue to grow and grow and economics are already compelling.

Drill results expected Q2 from Douta, Marahui and Guitry to look forward to- although we had initially been told Q1.

Suspect until these updates come we’ll broadly follow what the gold price does.

Yep that’s my thoughts exactly. Given they restated guidance yday, fair to assume Q1 was broadly to plan. Hopefully they sold more than poured and timed the sale price well too.

I keep saying it but every week / month / quarter we keep delivering at Segilola, the investment case becomes even stronger. Eg we’ve hopefully / feasibly increased our cash balance by circa 40% over the quarter.

“Just plodding forward we should see another $100m added to cash balance in 2026”

I’d be very disappointed if 2026 only generates $100m cash.

If we produce at the very lower end of guidance (75k) and it costs the very upper end of AISC ($1200), then even if we only average a sale price of $4200 we still make $315m revenue and profit of $220m.

I appreciate that needs to fund corporate overheads, drilling costs etc etc but I’d expect a material cash uplift. I think we added more cash than $100m last year with much lower gold prices.

I suspect we’re about to hear Q1 sold price was more like $4800, so my very conservative figures look pretty unlikely.

Results obviously excellent as is restating the guidance so anyone who isn’t familiar with the story can see how much cash will be generated this year.

Segilola update Im filing as slightly underwhelming. Technically we were expecting the mine life extension by Q1 and now we have no steer on when that will happen, but presumably not imminently given the reference to continuing deep drilling.

Another special Divi would have been nice, but it seems they’re wanting to go hard to exploration and a new Ivory Coast license good news too.

Q1 figures should come in the next or so which will hopefully show some very juicy revenue.

My understanding is they’ll release the Operating / Production update in April, ie how much was poured, sold and at what price. The AISC and full financial update will be May.

I might be misremembering but i think Segen mentioned at one point there was a possibility of extending the tax holiday if material capex was needed to extend the life. If so it’s potentially delayed whilst that’s negotiated with the government. Admittedly that’s a particularly rose tinted perspective!

I’m surprised there is surprise about missing a deadline - it’s AIM and it happens more often than not. Same track record here too -my god how times was Douta put back, but wasn’t it the right thing to do.

I did expect some results by now but let’s remember they’re going super deep at Segilola which will take time. I’m expecting some results before a full updated life of mine plan in any case , but hopefully I’m wrong and we get an initial updated figure.

Marahui is indeed a ‘cross your fingers’ outcome. Could be anything but a lot to prove. Almost the typical AIM (pipe) dream - I’m viewing it a a potential massive cherry on the cake.

The difference here is the cake / business is already underpinned by an ever increasing cash pile and medium term production almost assured.

Segilola and Douta going anywhere near to plan and the MCAP is massively covered without needing any massive finds. Fingers crossed for both tho!

Decent finish in Canada and Gold looking ok - suspect we’ll be back in the 70s tomorrow.

Cash at year end $137m.

20k oz sold at say $4700 using high end AISC $1200 gives another $70m profit this quarter, soon to be confirmed or otherwise.

Take today’s $4200oz gold price that gives 60k Oz for another $180m profit for the rest of the year.

137+70+180  = 387

Deduct say $37m for drilling, divis and general corporate overheads - end the year with circa $350m cash. Current MCAP is $576m.

Now consider what gold could go to on the upside.

I also have a theory / hope that whatever caused this years production guidance to decrease will be backended, ie given Q4 was the biggest production quarter hopefully that continued into 2026 and production tails off as the year goes on, giving us more to have sold into Q1.

MCAP currently $642m - as others have said we should end the quarter with circa $200m in the bank. Rest of the year obviously hugely dependent on POG but even taking $4200m gold gives another $180m profit. Cash pile will grow as will the overall resource inventory - the only questions are not if, but by how much.

We were this kind of price on 12th January and by the 28th January we were 98p. Let’s see where we are in a months time, I’m very confident.

Long term I just see an even longer, even stronger bull run for Gold. That US debt is vicious!

@isainvestor

Agree with everything you’ve said there and the proximity to the Q1 figures (and full year results) make this an absolute no brainer imo. I missed the lows earlier today but make to grab nearly £10k worth just before the bell. Well overweight here but will try to resist the temptation to sell too early this time.

At some point drilling results are going to start landing too, there’s just so much activity we’ll hopefully get a very busy news flow. If / when Gold turns back up we could hit the perfect storm.

March is well on track to be the highest month in Golds history, I’m certainly not worried.

That said, it is a good reminder (certainly to me anyway) that sometimes sentiment is as important as fundamentals. Unless there are things we don’t know about and / or something goes wrong, the numbers will speak for themselves soon enough.

@danger - what’s the 2nd news you’re expecting? Aside from Segilola extension, I’m expecting drill results from any of our 3 other areas, but not necessarily this month.

Douta PFS was delayed several times. I think it was initially expected 2024. January 13th 2025 they said Q1 25, which then became Q4 25 (also missed). As we know, it proved sensible to delay and add the extra (initial) resource. Had it been released then the economics would have been materially worse, especially given the gold price at the time.

On balance I hope others are right and it comes this month. I just don’t get that impression from the interviews and what we know about the scale of the drilling.

I’m super relaxed about it either way - if it comes this month it might reassure / settle the market. But if it’s slightly delayed it’ll probably mean the market get a bigger number in terms of extension, as happened with Douta. Hopefully it’ll continue to expand over time in anycase as we continue to drill - would be unlucky not to.

April will take care of itself with the full results and Q1 figures. I’ve got some money landing next week so will be going in again if it’s still in the 80s then.

And to think since the end of January we probably made another circa $25m *profit* in February alone.

That’s based on selling the mid range of the forecast 6666oz, costs at the high end $1200 and gold at $4900.

So pretty conservative really. And then the same in March!