Member Info for Adw198

Yeah it looks like we’re in a bit of a no man land trading range of 78-88p ahead of news. Bit surprised given the way gold is heading for a quarter average of circa $5k, but I suppose it’s just finding a nice plateau ahead the next leg up.

I don’t expect Segilola mine life extension this quarter. I think we’ll get an RNS broadly similar to the Douta one this time last year basically saying the ongoing drill results justify putting the mine life update back a bit to allow everything to be incorporated. That’s based on the fact there are apparently 5 rigs going and some of them super deep. Plus, delays are pretty much the norm. If it does come out it’ll only be an initial extension anyway, unless the drilling hasn’t been successful (which seems unlikely). Hopefully we get some results in the next couple of weeks.

April should be wild either way with full results and Q1 production figures. Plus drill results due from the 3 other resources Douta, Guitry and Marahui (I get the impression this was the last to get going).

The war has obviously put back rate cuts but medium term I think that probably just means gold will be higher for longer. Certainly doesn’t look like we’ve hit a parabolic stage yet.

Ha, yes the margins are really being squeezed with >$5k gold.

Granted we’re only 5 days in but there hasn’t ever been an average monthly price of $5k so plenty of rope to deliver the record.

What price was gold when you decided to invest here?

Such crazy and volatiles markets - to be fair I suppose it’s reflective of the geopolitical era.

Back to Thor…we’re now the same price as January 20th, a week after we announced we had $137m cash and a week before we announced a hugely profitable PFS for Douta. Using a $4250 gold price that gave (an initial) NPV5% of US$1.43 billion with an IRR of 102%.

Since then we’ve had another 6 weeks of elevated gold prices and by the end of March the cash balance might have increased by nearly 50% to circa $200m. Every day / week / month that passes in this environment we become a better investment imo.

I didn’t expect gold to behave like this after weekend, but it’s still so far ahead of where it needs to be to make this a rock solid banker.

As an aside it doesn’t look like a dump on large volume here so I’m confident of a short term bounce before a proper rerate when things settle down (a bit!) and results come out. Hopefully I can rustle up some funds in the meantime.

I’ve bought and sold with a seperate trading pot pretty well but don’t intend on any more trading till we hit £1.

Surprised we’re not back well into the 90s with Gold flying again. Looks like we’re heading for the highest weekly close there. Every month at these levels is adding serious cash and funding the growth story.

And we’ve got so much drilling news due with the April results and Q1 production figures to come.

So true isn’t Eyes - it’s like a 24hour market this, there’s barely a minute where Gold or Thx isn’t trading somewhere with a pretty straightforward correlation to the London Thor price.

Every week that goes by with Gold anywhere in the ballpark and no incidents at Segilola continues to derisk it for me. By year end we should have circa half our MCAP in cash and an ever growing resource inventory.

Hard to see much downside risk at that point, it just becomes a case of making a judgement about how high it should go.

Most the shrewd Gold commentators expect another crack at ATHs so we’ve hopefully more material upside too, but Id happily take $4500 for the foreseeable anyway given how much cash that spits out for a minimum of 15 years.

Such an easy decision to take some more this morning. As BBN has tweeted, at circa $4500 gold we should end the year with around half our current MCAP in cash.

We’re going to be producing gold for the next 15 years at an absolute minimum and realistically could well have multiple mines producing at the same time.

This year we’re going to get so many drilling updates and resource extensions - the only question is how good they are.

So we spend a week with Gold over $5k, release a PFS with an initial circa billion dollar NPV and end the week down - what a game we play!

I didn’t expect to be buying at 85.50p today, but will take the gift.

Bonkers isn’t it. Especially when you consider the average gold price over that week! What a crazy time when we regard gold as having a shocking fall down to $5k.

Decent reminder that nothing goes up on a truly straight line. However, every week / month of production at these margins derisks it for me as it keeps adding cash. It’s mining, things can wrong but in a year we’ll hopefully be sat on >$350m, which more than covers the cost of Douta.

We don’t always move on a parallel and / or logical way with the POG.

Sentiment is obviously different to fundamentals. We’re riding a wave of both at the moment but if gold did drop back say 10-15% I think we’d definitely give back some of the most recent gains. Long term I’m sure they’d return tho.

If someone offered me an average gold price of $4500 for the next 15years I’d take it, because the numbers and cash generation speak for themselves.

For disclosure I now have a trading pot and a core holding here, which reflects my above thoughts.

I missed the meeting, have seen the presentation which reinforces the investment case.

I thought the combination of a slightly subdued Canadian response and a possible retrace in Gold (yday) might lead to us slipping back, but both are now looking good to fuel a further rise tomorrow.

People are entitled to be unimpressed by the PFS, but probably only IF it didn’t meet their own expectations. I suppose Segen was clear about wanting 500k oz of Oxide and that’s only 85% there, but equally that seems almost guaranteed to increase (along with the rest of the resource).

I’m massively overweight here so sold a few yday but generally it still feels the best place for my money, certainly with Gold doing what it’s doing. The tariff ruling could cause even more carnage over the pond too, with all that brings.

Some great thoughts as ever, thanks all.

What do we think they’ll use as a base case for the gold price? I’m thinking perhaps $3500, but it would be great to have a sensitivity table showing the IRT at higher prices, as obviously that appears increasingly conservative.

Pretty surprised Gold has held most of its gains given DT rowed back from a war and trade war yday. But I suppose the latest episode further diminishes his credibility.

That’s exactly how I see it - creeping up this week with the Ex divi being Friday and then hopefully a material move the week after with Douta PFS.

I really think they’ll be a wider market bloodbath whilst Gold takes off

Gold could go parabolic when the market opens after Donald’s latest exploits. Equally, I suspect the wider market will have a pretty bad week.

What incredible timing to be releasing a PFS, itself a working day after a decent dividend on account of the cash machine Segilola mine. Followed later in the Quarter by a LOM extension and further drill results.

Remarkable times!

Thanks Willz, I think that makes sense - as in it’s $150m-180mfor part 1 and then another say $70m - $100m part 2.

I guess what I’m trying figure out is whether the PFS will use the latter (overall) figure. I suspect it will, which is partly why I didn’t quite understand TOB using the lower figure when calculating IRR?

Segen makes it pretty clear around 11m 25s that it’s $250-300m l, of which $150m will

come from us and “the extra 100m we need” will be debt, which supports the broad split.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=antL939du7I&pp=ygURdGhvciBleHBsb3JhdGlvbnM%3D

Hi Investor

Am I right in understanding there are essentially 2 distinct aspects of Capex - the first part being lower that’s for the oxide starter?

I’m guessing that’s the figure The Oak bloke quoted (and segen did early last year) and there will be additional capex required for the for build, presumably later on (the higher $250-300m)?

I’m not expecting the self funded / debt % to be known / released with the PFS - although he’ll probably give some further ballpark ideas in the presentation.

Exciting times!

Yes, great read thanks for sharing.

He quoted a potential Douta build cost of circa $150-180m, which corresponds to what Segen said in an interview early last year. I’d got in my head that more recently we were expecting something closer to $250m, but I can’t recall where.

Does anyone else have a view / understanding on this point?

I didn’t realise you’d added, but I suppose I should have figured out where this PR push came from. :)

Fair play on answering(ish) tho.

I think a 3p takeover bid is exceptionally unlikely but would be accepted. I won’t waste another 10 messages asking you if you agree!

Good luck anyway

I’m not sure why you feel attacked Mal?

I asked you if you’d sell for 3p. You didn’t answer but asked me a few times where I’d got the figure from.

I have answered where I got the figure from - it was plucked largely from thin air as a theoretical question. It’s not MY valuation because i don’t think anyone will pay that. I’m unaware of such premium to MCAP being paid.

If you want to be honest and admit you’d sell for 3p go for it. Or don’t, it’s not a biggie I can see through you either way.

If you (or anyone) has examples

of premiums of 5 times or bigger being paid for AIM companies I’d love to hear them.

Not a field they don’t own Abzzba.

Why are we talking about them anyway, are you back to claiming they’re the farm in partner? You were adamant you didn’t want them Abzzba

Mal we were having a decent conversation and then I came back to a load of questions and mocking.

If you can’t answer whether you sell for 3p which double what you sold for don’t worry about mate. Note I was able and winning to keep answering yours.

We both know you’d be delighted with 3p, but if you admit that it might not trick people that it’s worth of hundreds of millions.

Just another ramper talking his own book pretending to be something you’re not.