Member Info for Adw198

I don’t think anyone sensible is suggesting 4-6 duffers Thorn.

I was concerned the chances of commercial less on each individual well MIGHT now be less. Which would have material impact on the business plan and ability to fund the multiple wells needed to fund organic growth.

If the happy path is achieved it’s looks a great model. Even on the happy path there will most likely need to be a raise - which in fairness you acknowledge and have factored in. That’s all reasonable imo and hopefully you’d say the same on my view too.

That’s a decent winter break btw, enjoy!

@abzzba Tenbag

I don’t see (m)any attacking the company. I’m certainly not, I see both sides of the coin. If they manage to increase H1 production to a SUSTAINABLE level >500bopd and / or they get H2 producing >300 then things look very different and it would re rate.

Don’t mistake being personally fact checked as the company being attacked. Tenbag repeatedly asserted £5m-£10m of WINTER revenue so his own assessment of the company must have NOSE DIVED

H1 now back up to potentially producing 1000bopd is it Abzzba? You’ve previously told us 500bopd, then 800bopd. Any other complete guesses?

The facts on H2 are you thought it would producing in November. It’s infact suspended - because they didn’t have time to establish whether it just flows at 30bopd like some other wells in the basin, or whether or because of some other down-hole issue.

Whichever way you look at it, it was bad news (exceptionally bad against your own expectations) because there is now uncertainly and delay at best. At worst it’s just like some of those other 30bopd well. It’s why the SP crashed

Didn’t spike in 2024 did it. It dropped since the massive dilution.

I don’t dismiss charts but I find it astonishing someone can be so dismissive of fundamentals like shares in issue. Especially when delivered in a patronising tone, despite the fact they themselves didn’t invest based on charts

@doc

“Historical SP is irrelevant when we’ve had so many raises and extra shares issued. It’s market cap you need to look at”

Spot on. I think this is the single biggest miss investors make (me included!). Does anyone have a way / site of being able to look back and check the MCAP - not just here but in general, please?

What’s people’s views on the remaining 30% of Douta that we don’t own - am I right the 30% owned elsewhere got a free carry up until investment decision? I recall Segun saying something in an interview to the effect that he wasn’t sure about the 30% owners resoruces / intent - I got the impression from his tome they wouldnt be that keen on funding their own bit. So I guess we either need to find a new partner, stump up 30% value (which would interesting in value setting) or perhaps agree another free carry in exchange for a % type deal?

I have no experience of this type of scenario, hence asking.

Cheers

I can’t tell you your opinion, if honestly delivered, is wrong. But I wouldn’t find the below encouraging or indicative of being able to get multiple wells all producing 500bopd.

“…although it is in line with flow rates reported from some other wells in the basin. Pressure data recorded during the test and the details of the stimulation operation will be reviewed to determine if the flow rate is an indication of low reservoir permeability or some other down-hole issue”.

“In line with other wells” wouldn’t give me confidence of suddenly increasing 30bopd by 16 fold to 500bopd. I’d say it contraindicates that belief

@thorn

“19 wells is the plan Stats at 500 barrels a day each, perhaps more?…

I've not seen anything in Heron 1 and 2 to suggest that this is anything other than highly probable”

I think that somewhat overlooks that fact that H2, only 800 metres from H1 has disappointed with 30bopd.

I freely admit I don’t know the full implications of this, but when the 2nd well doesn’t meet expectations it surely should lead to a decreased level of confidence? If not, then why didn’t the SP completely tank on the news?

Or must investors remain relentlessly positive, irrespective of the evolving facts?

If he said it was an unsolicited approach that’s a positive and bodes well.

Obviously a more well rounded investor will consider the other facts - such as neither of the first 2 wells were funded in anyway through deferred payment.

So whilst it possible they approached to ask if they could get paid in a different way to what they subsequently agreed for all their work to date, half of which would fairly (currently) be described as a failure, I’m applying some scepticism. And there certainly no deal as you claimed.

If they do agree to deferred payment for H3, I’d imagine we’ll get smashed on the terms. That said, would still be the best outcome for MATD.

As previously requested, can you direct me to where we were told it was an “UNSOLICITED approach to Petro Matad”?

I’m well aware of the rest of the extract which is partly why I said we could have a sensible conversation about whether they might defer (some) costs going forward.

I find it very unlikely that there is currently such a deal given a) multi year deals aren’t allowed and b) there is no agreed work for next year in anycase

Why exaggerate everything? Why not just be sensible and say there is potential for deferred payment? How worried are you to have to log on spouting mainly the same nonsense every day.

What happened to the Zeus prediction of an approved PC deal within days?

This was the guy who told people to expect the rH2 results mid October, tried whooping up some FOMO. When they didn’t come he argued the only possible explanation for the delay was that H2 has been put straight to production because “no news is good news”. Industry expert analysis that folks :)

What was actually happening at H2 was “the test rig suffered a major engine problem but repairs were complete” and then they suspended it because it had “not achieved the flow rates we were hoping for”

Nothing wrong with being wrong but at least admit it! Instead he tried passing it off as minor news, insisted it was an easy fix and then bought more at 1.70 - which for inexplicable reasons he then lied about.

A lifetimes work on the scrap heap :)

Yeah Abzzba you can keep quoting the stick I’ve given out (in response to the abuse received) or you can finally begin to address the lies and misinformation you keep spreading. Mark Twain wouldn’t just keep posting the same personal attacks.

I’d imagined it was a calculated, concerted effort on your behalf to trick people but I think I got that wrong. I now think you really are so stupid that you believe this stuff yourself.

40 years of working in the industry and utterly clueless :)

It’s all very well WOS quoting an extract from the June RNS

"The (DQE) terms included some DEFERRAL COSTS to allow a portion of the drilling expenditure to be settled from FUTURE PRODUCTION" -

But surely he’d be better helpfully informing people that this deal wasn’t signed because as the very next sentence tells us

“However, MRPAM insisted that current regulations do not cater for multi-year contracting and accordingly the Company has concluded a Tender inviting all potential contractors to bid on drilling on Block XX”

So basically “the deal” wasn’t actually a deal, it was a rejected MOU.

Might DQE agreed a deal to defer SOME costs going forward - quite possibly. But there’s no deal.

Ha you tried arguing and lying though mate - you’re just too stupid to not to get caught out. Such a silly pointless lie too on this occasion. Hopefully nobody was tricked by your more serious ones.

Brilliant watching you crumble - 40 years in an industry and ending up this clueless, what a life :)

Abzzba you’ve had a bad here. Brilliant to watch you crumble.

I said you topped up at 1.70, you said

“Adw, you persist in quoting rubbish, if you want to trawl through my posts you will find out what my third last buy was, i could tell you, but i wont”

I replied

“I thought you’d said you’d topped up at 1.70 - if that’s wrong no probs I apologise. Is it wrong?”

You replied

“adw, wrong”

To now claim you denied topping up at 1.70 is frankly embarrassing. A needless lie, from a proven liar and deeply discredited poster - whereas pro investor explains his position and logic you just call him names and insist you’re right.

Imagine spending 40years in a field and being this exposed - I really hope your retired now and only embarrassing yourself on a message board :)

These petty little squabbles don’t achieve much - but they do help demonstrate who is / isn’t credible.

Abzzbas just denied topping up at 1.70.

Here’s what he told us all on 15th November

“Crazy to think the shares i bought yesterday at 1.7p will be sold in a few short years around 35p price mark”

Was he lying then, or lying now?

I thought you’d said you’d topped up at 1.70 - if that’s wrong no probs I apologise.

Is it wrong?

Yeah I sold at 1.81 whilst you bought more at 1.70 Abzzba. Perhaps it’s you who should be disgruntled!

I wouldn’t call myself disgruntled though, it was my mistake to get involved, albeit I was undone by the unlucky H2 results (and not trusting my own belief there was NO DEAL to sell).

There’s lots of uncertainty here -

1. (when) will we get a sales / export deal

2. ,(when) will H1 be tamed to get an increased sustainable production

3. What will that be

4. What will the production and sales costs be

5. Can they get H2 to flow at commercial rates

6. Until 1 - 5 are known everyone should be fearful of a raise and / or further fall.

Those invested may also wish to consider how rock solid an investment case is when it’s reliant on 1 new well in Mongolian winter.

The technical stuff goes well over my head so I don’t pretend to understand - so I agree with thorn that it’s best to go off what the company tell us.

And that’s most definitely NOT that there’s 1 easy know fix that is very likely and will result in 800bopd of sustained production.

They’re looking into it lads, but probably not over the winter..

Ha ok Abzzba but it’s ok for you to assert with complete confidence what the wells will produce.

Honestly no wonder you’re so far underwater :)