Member Info for Adw198

A POTENTIAL raise does indeed have evidential basis - the company’s intent was to get 2 wells on stream with the “goal” of not needing further raises. At best that’s happening next year, at worst H2 either isn’t put to production or is at marginally commercial rates.

Of course, that doesn’t mean a raise will happen, simply that there is reasonable evidence to consider a possibility - and in my opinion a very strong one. Irrespective of the extent to which people agree, I think it’s exactly the place to share views about it because we all know the impact on the SP of it does happen.

Jesus investor got rattled quickly, having seemingly failed to read my posts.

I’m here to learn so whilst I apply a massive dollop of scepticism to someone handing out lectures on what smart money does which appears best boiled down to retrospectively picking lows and highs.

I’ve heard of the Santa Rally but this seems a fanciful extension of that. And not even something he’s willing to test out for himself.

Investor this is all sounding a bit like a Monday morning quarterback, especially all the references to what the smart money does and how nobody here can see it. Anyone can be a hindsight Harry looking back at a chart but can you at least specify the buy / sell timeframes - is it November or December? And when does one sell, April / May - because it reads to me like you’re just cherry picking dates from different years

@hamm

I’ve just answered at length and politely my interest. I’m not short and have never shorted anything but the more I see of AIM the more I wish I had.

I certainly wouldn’t short this now though. I’ve said I expect itll go back above my sales price of 1.81 at some point and I’m surprised it’s this low. Ultimately i think it’s long term heading down because of the need for funding and the uncertainty around the Heron field. Those facts might change in which case so will my opinion.

But you’d be better concentrating on yourself. It’s so obvious you’re overweight and out of your depth here, alternating between bragging about how great things are and panicking on a red day - always either copying what the bigger smarter boys say, or asking for their opinions.

@investor - are you buying now then? If not, why not?

Hamm, if I’ve told any lies then quote them and address them. Same goes for anyone else.

I’m here because having spent time, energy and unfortunately a chunk of money, I still have views on the company. Keeping an eye on a former investment seems sensible to continue to learn and of course if the facts or price changes it might become a buy again. I also enjoy correcting people like yourself who frequently make inaccurate claims which I think is healthy to correct. On a less mature level I also enjoy seeing some of those in the pack who gave me dogs abuse and mocked me losing money suffering - not exactly my finest moment but that’s the reality.

But I go back to my first paragraph don’t worry about guessing people’s motivations just play the message. If you only want those invested and positive to post you’ll get a very unbalanced view so try to embrace things you don’t want to hear instead of just those that reassure you.

Exactly Stas - these aren’t interviews it’s paid for PR This isn’t a MATD thing, it’s a general market thing. So watch them in that context and pick up on the subtle hints, ie the things they’re not talking about (like funding, the forward plan, the timing of permits, the likelihood of H1 and H2 doing better) and be sceptical about even things that sound positive. Those who criticise MB for not being more positive or giving more specifics should at least consider the possibility it’s because he can’t tell outright lies.

@abzzba reducing your price target from 35p to 33.5p, which you expect to happen with 18months - if that’s a joke fair play it’s pretty funny. If it’s not it absolutely HILARIOUS.

I must admit I didn’t think the permit was a new issue, I took it to be the same as the paperwork referenced in the recent RNS. Still a valid question to ask when he knew about it. It’s AIM, don’t expect transparency in a CEOs comms, always wise to apply some scepticism to what they announce. And when posters exaggerate what has been said it’s getting even more removed from the likely truth.

“Once approved, export paperwork for Block XX crude can be prepared and sales will then commence”

I think there a few too many conspiracy theories on the alleged manipulation.

I don’t dismiss it but isn’t the SP more just a reflection of the fact that H2 is currently borderline commercial and the possible implication for what that means across the rest of the field? The other thing being there’s still no deal to actually sell oil / receive money and even when it does it come there won’t be enough profit to stop being a loss making company. This was supposed to be agreed before production.

Yes it’s better than not having a permit but I think there’s now a realisation that this isn’t going to suddenly be a multi well producing company - certainly not without significant dilation. Plus then the risks of relying on 1 well in the meantime. Oil hardly flying either is it.

Fwiw I took the “worst case” comment to be in the context of the short term possibilities and on the back of Segun saying this was the claimed figure, not some of the bigger ones claimed in the press.

Quoting his exact words is very helpful Stas.

WOS was one of the posters telling us (seemingly via the Zeus note) to expect the deal to be signed in days. So WOS should be more disappointed than most to find out that’s not the case.

Yes good post Stas.

This lot always try and re spin what’s actually said into what they want him to say.

At least it put to bed the nonsense a few tried about activity at H2 this year.

No money will be landing this year and I personally doubt for a good few months. There’ll be circa 250bopd being stockpiled over winter and we don’t know the margins, but it seems likely MATD will be losing cash each month.

“Sales agreement sign off and Customs/Export paperwork look to be pretty much in the bag.”

In fact what he actually said was the Mongols are making some amendments on the agreement. And they can’t begin the export paper work until it’s all signed.

It was being finalised in July, so progress here isn’t quick. What he told us in September about both parties being committed to get it agreed in October, he’s now admitted wasn’t entirely true because he said they weren’t really that focussed until we began producing. I don’t blame him for the geology beyond his control but it’s an epic failure not to have an agreement to sell after all this time. Really poor and we’re now completely over a barrel.

Reasonable interview I thought.

Didn’t tell us much more about H1, again saying they’ll see IF they can get it producing “higher” rates.

I was surprised to hear 30bopd at Heron 2 being marginally commercial and generally thought H2 sounded more positive. The negative is whether what they found at H2 is potentially something they’ll encounter more widely across the field. To me that’s the big question.

Another plus was the agreement with PC now being with the Mongols for approval. However it’s not clear how long it’ll take to be signed and then the export licence given. But I’d agree that’ll most likely be the next RNS.

Not sure who that’s directed at jojoba but it’s definitely fair to say my losses here far far exceed my p e n I s size:)

Ha yes Tenbag and his probable aliases have indeed survived the ill fortune I wished upon him - for pretending someone was using the “N” word when simply describing a group of “negatives”.

He’s absolute vermin and i do indeed wish he gets everything he deserves. And if the prick ever wants to meet ne in his home town in Manchester hes welcome.

(Altho someone might need to front him his bus fair he’s done his mums dough here)

:)

“Everyone knows your a compulsive liar ”

Yet neither you nor any of your underwater mates cant quote a single example.

Don’t fall for Abzzbas bull S H I T E folks he just wants an exit. A 23 bagger in 18months he claims he’s here for - now that’s a LIE

Just quote a single lie Abzzba?

It’s not me proclaiming 100 Wells and offering up guarantees the company themselves cant re the first 2 wells.

I remain un invested but interested and remind people who was transparent about their holding and who is massively underwater and trying to trick people into bailing them out.

A 23 baggers within 18 months - even for you that’s some claim :)

Don’t fall for it folks, he knows full well this is another AIM downward spiral.

@abzzba

“Next RNS hopefully confirmation of oil sales agreement, maybe that will stop Adw/Gusto lies about that at least”

What lie have I told about a sales agreement? I shared my view (whilst acknowledging it might be wrong) that there wasn’t a sales deal. The latest RNs confirmed I was right. A bit of humility wouldn’t go a miss mate

Agreed mate.

There are so many reasons to think almost irrespective of the outcome we’re still head and shoulders the best investment out there.