Member Info for Adw198

I also apply a healthy dollop of scepticism to these reports and the somewhat scattergun approach of Osun’s claims.

But I think Genghis is broadly right - if they get awarded $2m or a certain number of shares then presumably it’s because of perceived wrong doing by Thor. That wouldn’t be a good optic and would be unlikely to be the last of it. Equally I do agree with Harchris that the state can’t get too greedy as it might backfire, although as we move from Nigeria they might be less concerned with that.

I’m pretty surprised we haven’t heard more about the segilola drilling results - I think they may be managing the release of some of it, as the news flow doesn’t match the rhetoric given earlier in the year

Abzzba come on give it a rest - who are you trying to trick with these discredited claims. “Commercial” and “confident” just comical at this stage. How worried are you?

It feels like I’m just bullying you now, why don’t you take a break like pro quo and tenbag and pop back to tell us about 500 / 800 / 1000 bops when it happens in something other than your head.

“H1 expected to produce at or around 800 bbl/d, H2 work suspended until season 2025 due to requiring remedial work to improve the 30 bbl/d well test figure, though commercial MATAD are confident this 30 bbl/d can be improved upon”

So no answers or attempts to address anything that has been put to you @thorn.

I agree the company won’t be going bust - theres money in the bank (albeit an ever decreasing amount) and oil underground. To get it out there’s needs to be significant investment / dilution. A company with a 1 in 2 strike rate on a proven field will struggle to do either at decent rates.

Abzzba holding out for his 18month 23 Bagger. :)

Jesus where does these people come from!?!

Thorn, for the sake of everyone can we once and for all bottom out the difference between a maximum and a sustainable average?

And in doing so can you at least acknowledge (ideally address) the parts of the RNS that discuss the plans to review what can be produced going forward? If you keep ignoring this bit it can only be because you’re trying to trick people.

“Whilst this is in line with our pre-production aspiration for an initial stabilised rate, the indications of sustained potential for the well to produce at higher rates are under review, to see if modifications at surface can be made to increase the stabilised flow rate.”

If you’re so confident it says 800bopd is likely why also speculate about 500?

Thorn starts the morning telling us how much money H1 will be generating and ends it after being fact checked by saying

“There's no point talking about likely Heron 1 flow rates as they've yet to be established”

Don’t let them trick you.

“he's said that it may end up producing at more than the 821 barrels if flowed on initial flow test”

Nope, he never said that. “Quote it”

As Doc says, if you think 500, 600, 800 or 1000 is likely (you lot interchange these figures as if fact) then all I ask is you come back and tell us the company making well is a massive disappointment if it only sustains at 300bopd.

For completeness I’m not saying it WILL stabilise at 300bopd, simply that it’s 1 of a range of possibilities. Personally I strongly suspect it’ll be closer to 300 than 800 but I always recognise I might be wrong, especially on a speculative opinion. And it’s all but assured to be the best case average over the winter because they told us pretty much that.

2 wells - one producing 200-300 and the other suspended because it showed only 30bopd. Plug those figures into your “disaster” projections instead of making up miles better figures

Very low likelihood of drilling another 3 Heron wells because they don’t have $12m to do it. And if they do get the funds the chances of 3 wells all producing DOUBLE what H1 is managing are even longer. Why not use H2 with its potential of 30bopd as the benchmark?

“From yesterdays RNS its quie obvious H1 daily production will rise to around 500 bbl/d, maybe even more. Do the figures yourself”

That was Abzzbas take on the 15th November. Where did the 500bopd figure come from and what’s changed for him to now assert 800bopd.

Absolute chancer

Quote me the bit that says 800bopd is likely.

Then explain why the company themselves say they’re looking into it and caveat it with “if”?

This is all from the guy who told to expect an RNS saying H2 was already producing, because no news is good news when drilling apparently :)

Same guy who mis read the other RNS that told us there wasn’t a deal to sell our oil and thought it said the exact opposite. How many times can be so wrong and so adamant you’re right?! You’ve not got a good record to hand out comprehension advice mate :)

It’s producing 200-300bopd.

What it’s maximum possible production is a different matter to the reality of what it can sustain. As I quoted the company themselves told us “the indications of sustained potential for the well to produce at higher rates are under review, to see if modifications at surface can be made to increase the stabilised flow rate”

It’s under review to see IF they can INCREASE those rates. Nowhere do tell us it’s likely or what that increase might be.

Credible informative and factual

“the indications of sustained potential for the well to produce at higher rates are under review, to see if modifications at surface can be made to increase the stabilised flow rate”

They’re looking into it. 800bopd isn’t described as a likely result.

Why do people feel the need to lie about the facts here?

“same RNS tells us it likely H1 will flow at or around 800 bbl/d“

Absolute liar.

Part of the raise was specifically for renewables so there must be some of the funds being used on that.

As we discussed, none of us know the exact splits

Excellent post unnd

Heron 1 might actually have already been funded so it might even be better than you’ve estimated. Although I guess we don’t know how much has been spent on the renewables business so that could be another bit of expenditure to factor in.

I’d also be mindful of payment timeframes from PC - one would assume they’ll pay MATD after they themselves get paid, which is presumably after the export the oil. I can’t see a single penny landing this year

Proquo back repeating his false claims about what Heron can / will produce. A reminder the company themselves essentially said they’re looking to see IF they can produce more.

“production is currently choked back to a range between 200 and 300 bpd. Whilst this is in line with our pre-production aspiration for an initial stabilised rate, the indications of sustained potential for the well to produce at higher rates are under review, to see if modifications at surface can be made to increase the stabilised flow rate.“

I don’t mind people speculating Thorn, but just be clear you don’t know what the fundamentals are when telling people how great the numbers are.

The company will be loss making on current production is my own guesstimate. So even when the money does begin to come in (and we have no idea when that will be) each month the cash balance will be reducing and in that context MATD need to fund more wells.

I’m impressed with people who don’t know what it costs to produce oil, or what we’ll sell it for being so confident on the fundamentals.

If the figures were that brilliant the company would be shouting about them. The current output of 200-300bopd will make MATD a loss making company imo. Equally I acknowledge they MIGHT (not “will”) increase the production and they MIGHT yet resolve H2. They absolutely need to.

@thorn

“800 barrels a day? 50 dollars profit (with initial cost claw back)?

14.5m dollars profit a year (from only one well essentially at this point).”

Even if we assume MATD can start producing 3-4 times more from H1 than currently, where do you get the $50 of profit from? Have the company given this figure somewhere or is it your own guesstimate or revenue and costs?

Fair enough mate - I’ve not listened to the Investor meets yet and in fairness I understand he did address it full on there.

I really hope whatever the outcome there’s a statement that makes it clear everything is fully settled. If / when that happens we should massively re rate