Member Info for Adw198

So much utter tripe on here from both sides today.

I agree there’s been some new rather unsophisticated trolls join to talk it down.

And the same old tosh from the regulars replacing actual facts with wishful thinking. Eg H1

“oil flowing at an ok rate (soon to be excellent rate) and about to become profitable”

Prove this please?

Likewise the industry expert Abzzba whose own opinion was H2 was ALREADY flowing is now claiming it just need some tweaks. Lies on lies

It doesn’t matter why I’m here, i could be trying to talk it down to get a better price for all you know (I’m not). But every observation I’ve made is fair and nothing I’ve quoted is factually wrong. Which is why you get personal instead.

I’m here correcting rampy nonsense and because I find it interesting to discuss now I’ve know a bit.

Tenbag, how many shares do you have? When did you first buy in?

Don’t listen to Tenbag about a sales agreement doubling the SP - he thought there already was one. Just more pivoting to a new positive

Re the fully funded CEO line - they always say that and in fairness that’s in the shareholders best interest because if he said “we’re currently raising” the SP would crash and the raise would be on (even) worse terms. The reality of the cash position just before the raise was outlined in the 19th September RNS which said

“The Company's cash balance at 30 June 2024 was USD 1.93 million (USD 0.77 million in cash and USD 1.16 million in Financial Assets)”

Bearing in mind we were also told

“As of 31 December 2023, the Group's cash position was $4.5 million (inclusive of Financial Assets)”

That tells us they were not fully funded. It also tells us cash burn was circa $2.5m for H1 on standard corporate costs, not the drilling. So the “profit” from H1 has a lot of overheads to cover before the company breaks even, let alone funds further expansion.

Good analysis Legalwolf

It seems the most likely best output for H1 will be 300bopd over the winter. We don’t know what PROFIT that production will bring, or indeed the current corporate overheads, amusingly dismissed as tea and biscuit money by Thorn.

Nor we know the cash balance but I agree with the $2.5m H2 likely “saving” I agree with Tenbag should be healthy for now.

One thing I think is being overlooked is the likely lead time to actually receive any money. I’m speculating but I can’t see PCs buyers paying them immediately, or PC then immediately paying MATD. And of course that’s not even valid until the deal is signed anyway and god knows when that will be based on the farcical progress to date. But as I say cash flow shouldn’t be a problem for the short term.

The issue, as you say, is where the funds are coming from for the 2025 programme. Absence a deal with DQE (which I think it very unlikely based on 50% success rate to date) then it’s a raise, most likely at punitive levels unless a rabbit is pulled from a hat beforehand.

I suspect the company will start talking up renewables, teasing about Gobi and then do a raise. All the people who tell you there won’t be one will then pivot and say it’s great news because it’s higher accretive for the company - just like they did when $9m was raised this year.

They’ll be lots of talk based on the oil we’ve been told is in the ground and recoverable but smarter investors will focus on the likely short - medium terms direction because that’s the reality. Right now that’s extremely uncertain.

Best hope is a takeover imo, but perhaps Petrovis will prefer to keep taking discounted placings and frankly why wouldn’t they.

As you know I’m not invested now so my output here will be melt away, but that’s just an honest appraisal from someone with no skin in the game.

“a better than expected flow test of it's Heron 1 “

What figure was expected and what figure has that increased to please?

I read that they expected to produce 300bopd and are currently doing 200-300bopd, but the previous maximum of 821 has been matched and improved - but with gas meaning they need to control the throttle.

They might make some modification to allow them to increase from current levels. I don’t know what the long term AVERAGE production might be, but Tenbag who isn’t known for his conservatism earlier offered 500bopd.

Excellent and balanced by Doc, exactly as I see it.

Hamm calling a blue day sums up the intellectual capacity on the other “side” of the board

I’m semi tempted given it might be stabilising down here. Can now get 628k for the 517k i sold (for a loss) yday.

But the bull case is still a bulls h i t e one based on the posts here

@hamm

“H2 data is being analysed. Depending on the fault and weather it might be operational this year or next season”.

I know none of the crew will correct this but it’s wrong. There is ZERO chance it will be operational this year. They’ve suspended the work and winter shutdown is a couple of weeks away.

It wasn’t ever that likely to be producing this year so it’s not even significant for anything beyond demonstrating the inaccuracy of your posts

People saying it’s better than 6 months ago…

6 months ago there were a materially lower amount of shares in issue. Gobi was still a potential goer (still might be but reduced chance imo), H2 wasn’t showing as probably not commercial and H1 was forecast to be producing 300bopd WITH a sales deal in place.

Getting to production has been a huge success and should have been transformational but there isn’t now a valid plan to develop more wells.

@stas

Yes absolutely it can go lower, like it did after I bought mid - high 2’s! But at some point it becomes value and / or worth a punt.

I’m guessing you took a hefty loss yday too?

My 517,553 sell yday that I was mocked for - just done a quote and I get 615,686 of them for the same money.

And I’m holding my hands up and saying I’m not even good at this game, I lost money here.

I think id rather have the money but it is getting tempting for a short term trade in anticipation of a day 3 dead at bounce…

Pro quo showed what’s wrong with his approach and the board earlier.

Thorn made a reasonable post about the Mongols perhaps helping out given they need the oil.

Doc politely gave a different view

Pro quo declined to even comment on any of the substance of either post but told Doc he should “sell” if he didn’t believe thorns theory.

Textbook stuff really, allow the positive speculation and throw the toys out at an alternative perspective whilst offering nothing himself

Great board full of proquos blocking running commentary.

Deflects from the talk about the company I suppose.

:)

“Let’s see. Heron 1 could easily flow 500 bopd consistently”

Explain this to Thorn tenbag, he thinks a MAXIMUM is the same as an average.

What was the pre drill forecast for a long term average bopd? I can’t find it anywhere. So if you think it surpassed expectations tell us what trey were?!

@thorn

As I said I quoted the same section.

So you previously thought the maximum flow of 821bopd was going to be the average?!

That’s fine, when they don’t get anywhere near that I hope you come back and acknowledge the investment case is worse than you realised

I specifically said IF they get 1000bopd would be BRILLIANT. I just see little / no evidence of that being achieved as an average. The average is currently 200-300 against the expected 300bopd. Not bad, certainly not the amazing result you lot like to claim

Morning investor

I’ve always said DQE is the way forward and if they can get such a deal in fairness my prediction for a raise might be off.

But what’s the likelihood of such a deal now the 2nd well hasn’t gone to plan. Why would they suddenly start drilling for deferred income against oil that might not be produced?

H2 wasn’t funded that way, so either DQE didn’t want to do it or MATD felt it was better to fund it via a 46% discounted raise.

Doesn’t look likely to me

@ hamm

I “guess MB could have put H2 in a positive wording”

If he could have he would have - he’s under a lawful obligation to do that. He gave the truth, he doesn’t know if 20bopd is just what it is, other whether it can be fixed. So write to Zeus and ask where their assertion comes from

@thorn

I quoted the same section as you so how am I quoting selectively?

If you know what that quote means enlighten us - I was gracious enough to concede I didn’t know exactly and ventured an explanation. It’s the maximum - like the maximum was 821 in 2019 but with an AVERAGE much lower.

We (sorry, the company) aimed for an initial 300bopd and are doing200-300 bopd. They’re the facts that’s are clear - from that your mates are quoting 1000bopd so over to you