Legal & General Share Price (LGEN)

What is the view on the takeover now everyone, do you think it is now over and done with or do you still think there is a chance that it might happen, would welcome people's thoughts?

So true and SPCX is a loss making business remember that’s why are raising equity.

I took a punt on both CROWDSTRIKE & CREDO from 2022 & 2024 respectively. Sold em both last yr. But what a rIDE Crowd is stil on.

I haven’t sold Vale to move that profit here yet. So just riding out vale with commodities.

Like anon I’ll have £9000k making LGEN close ti £19k a pure heavy along with ROCHE / GOOGL / HSBC & SPG.

Fleccy, it was only ever a quick in and out. I only bid a couple of grand, but the best part of 30% is a nice touch.

And then I reconsidered, where with Trump doing his usual stuff, I just thought it could easily end the day 30% down because of the ridiculous price.

I don't short, but this surely has to be a massive opportunity come Monday. I'd guess there could be at least 50% to be made when things become a bit more realistic and the hype wears off.

"I actually put an order in for SPCX with AJBell and then bottled it, so had to phone the dealing services team to get it cancelled" "I quite often get it wrong lol"

Did you get it wrong? Would you have invested for the short term, planning to make a fast exit while the hype raises the price? Or are you a long term investor who invests based on fundamentals rather than dreams?

I used to work in Telecoms, including line of sight terrestrial microwave links and I take issue with the Starlink Total Addressable Market figure of $1.6 trillion. Due to the bandwidth limitations of Radio Frequency communications and atmospheric constraints as higher frequencies are used, not to mention free space path loss, the Serviceable Obtainable Market is likely a fraction of that figure.

Starlink can excel in commercial services to airlines, ships and things like backhaul for rural 5G cell masts, but Starlink will never be a threat to Terrestrial telecommunication providers offering cellular and fixed line fibre services.

Starlink will also come under competitive pressure from other Satellite providers, like OneWeb and Amazon Leo, and although these competitors wont have as many satellites as Starlink, they wont need too since they aren't targeting residential customers.

Don't get me wrong, I think Starlink is an amazing business, but the actual addressable market for their business is far less than the touted $1.6 trillion figure. AI says "When accounting for user density limits, geographic limitations, and consumer affordability, industry consensus from network analysts (including Quilty Space and Analysys Mason) puts Starlink’s realistic annual Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) ceiling between $30 billion and $50 billion. This means that out of the theoretical $1.6 trillion global telecom market, the maximum annual revenue Starlink can actually capture is roughly 2% to 3%", my guess is the business would have to do really well to achieve even that.

Using the UK as an example of issues affecting Starlink's addressable market; In the UK once the Fibre and 5G rollouts are completed, most of the UK landmass will have options that are both cheaper and superior to services that LEO's can provide; And unlike LEO Satellites Fibre and 5G masts need a one off capex, whereas Starlink satellites have to be de-orbited and replaced approximately every 5 years meaning continuous rolling Capex. Anyone who suggests that Satellite will dominate and replace terrestrial communications either doesn't understand the industry, or are purposely presenting a false narrative.

As far as the other parts of the business, I have no idea, but the AI side of the business is apparently a money pit and there's only so much hardware you can put into space at a reasonable price, so the rocket business success will likely be measured in margin return.

I just think it's a risky bet that I wouldn't take.

Nice finish. Hopefully more to come next week.