Trump vs RR21 Jun 2026 19:43
13 Mar “We won the war” / uncertainty cluster -5.30% Big negative day; fits risk-off pattern.
19 Mar Allies told to help open Strait -5.22% Negative, but also broad market/oil shock.
30 Mar Threat to obliterate Iranian energy infrastructure/oil wells Roughly flat vs prior close Reuters confirms the threat, but RR did not collapse that day; likely already partly priced or offset.
17 Apr “Iran agreed never to close Strait again” type relief +4.83% Fits relief/reopening theme.
20–22 Apr Fragile ceasefire / stalling / energy crisis tone -3.68%, -6.50%, -3.54% Very clear negative cluster.
30 Apr More threats / Iran collapse language +7.59% Not a Trump/Hormuz read-through. Rolls-Royce had its own AGM/trading update, guidance intact, and said it was mitigating Middle East disruption.
7–8 May Airstrikes / retaliation -1.58%, -3.11% Fits escalation-negative pattern.
15 May “Iran begging to talk” -4.78% A “talks” headline did not help; market probably read the situation as unstable or cared about other factors.
1–3 Jun Deal leak / talks implode / drones / War Powers -4.83%, +0.61%, -1.75% Net negative cluster.
12 Jun After 11 Jun mixed “hit Iran hard / talks going well” +4.41% Confounded by a Berenberg upgrade; not cleanly attributable to Trump.
15 Jun “War over / Strait open” type relief +3.85% Fits relief theme.