Cavendish : Buy with 112p price target6 May 2026 11:20
The valuation here is getting silly, particularly given management's excellent track record.
At 42.25p the P/E for the year ending this month is 6.0, falling to 5.5 based on 7.7p EPS.
Plus TIME also have a forecast £7m net cash (8p per share), rising to £10m next May.
Cavendish had this to say after the March Q3 trading update:
"3Q26 trading update – Credit quality improves further
Time Finance has delivered another robust trading update for the nine months to February 2026, continuing its consistent track record of disciplined growth with a nineteenth consecutive quarter of loan book expansion and further evidence of improving credit quality. Own-book lending origination increased 27% YoY to £86.5m (3Q25: £69.3m), driving the gross lending book to a new record of £236.4m (3Q25: £210.2m), up 12% YoY. Origination growth notably exceeding loan book growth can be attributed to the signing of Invoice Finance deals whereby the full facility size features immediately in originations, but the amount drawn can contribute to the lending book size gradually over time.
The strategic shift towards secured lending continues to gain traction, with Invoice Finance and Hard Asset Finance now representing 96% of new originations and 88% of the total book, rapidly closing in on the 3-year plan target of over 90% of the loan book. Revenue rose 4% YoY to £28.3m (3Q25: £27.3m), with PBT rising 5% YoY to £6.2m and margins improving 1pp to 22%, reflecting the benefits of scale. Importantly, asset quality continues to strengthen, with arrears reducing to 4.7% (3Q25: 5.3%) and write-offs improving to 1.0% (3Q25: 1.3%).
Overall, Time is executing well against its strategy and continues to demonstrate its ability to grow agnostically to the economic environment as it helps businesses to both thrive and survive. Trading on a FY27E basic P/E of just 5.9x and 0.7x tangible NAV, the shares continue to offer material re-rating potential as Time targets lending book growth to over £300m, higher PBT margins, and mid-teen returns on equity by the end of the next three-year plan in 2028."