Cavendish raise target price 50% to 120p - P/E of only 6.217 Jun 2026 13:38
Following the results Cavendish have raised their forecasts to 8.3p EPS this year and 10.3p EPS next year.
Their increased target price is 120p - almost 90% upside from the current 64p.
Here's a couple of extracts from their post-results note FYI:
"TPXimpact*
Visibility on contract wins yields upgrades
Prelims for March FY26 are in line with expectations (upgraded in February & April 2026), with contract visibility leading to FY27E adj EBITDA guidance of £12m, an 18% improvement on our former forecast (£9.8mE).
Total contract value won jumped materially to £122m, after £70m in FY25, showing the accumulated momentum in forward-looking revenue. With a better view on the timing of customer expenditure within the contract frameworks, and assuming 1% annual adj EBITDA margin improvement in line with guidance, we lift FY27E forecasts: revenue +16%, adj EBITDA +18% and adj dil EPS 27%, with net debt also guided to breakeven by year end (as expected).
The opportunity for further contract wins and expansions remains, with digital transformation of central and local government fundamental to the modernisation of processes and delivery of cost savings.
AI remains TPX’s friend, both internally and for clients, to deliver outcomes via the best route, navigating possibilities for highly risk-averse governmental clients, in secure and effective ways.
We introduce FY28 forecasts, and lift our target price to 120p (formerly 80p): FY26 and 1Q27 contract wins, combined with margin expansion from the delivery of the 2023-2026 three-year plan, give a strong, credible base for TPX to reap the harvest of confidence in revenue growth."
"TCV of contracts won improved to £122m from £70m, building a visible revenue stream for FY27 and beyond. The TCVs represent an approximate total estimated spend, with timing of the work undertaken being dependent on the customers’ capacity and pace. Management’s greater visibility of expected customer delivery timetables, such as the Ministry of Justice contract won earlier this month, has given confidence for improved guidance, and the board also notes stronger new business conversion."
"TPXimpact is a beneficiary of the UK governmental five-year cycle, which is now in full flow a year after the June 2025 completion of the Comprehensive Spending Review relating to 2026-2029. We expect further initiatives towards digital transformation as the need and urgency for delivery of efficiency in government becomes more pressing with the evident burden of welfare spending.
We lift our target price from 80p to 120p, equivalent to 10.3x FY27E EV/Adj EBIT (cf Cav Next 50 at 10.2x; Cav Tech 40 at 11.2x), and similar to the smaller, lower margin Made Tech trading at 9.9x FY27E."