Member Info for rivaldo

Another research note just out, this one from Turner Pope. Extracts:

"Orosur continues to deliver on its promises. Ongoing drilling at Pepas West has produced further positive Au results, recording thick intersections of shallow mineralisation. Significantly, one particular hole (PEP090) that is stepped out 30m to the north-west of previous holes, demonstrated mineralisation over 100m in strike.

Considered worthy of a rapid follow-up to test potential for an extension to the main zone, the Group’s geological teams are now scheduling for the drill rig that was moved south in April to test new targets, to be returned to Pepas West in a few weeks in order to begin defining the size of this new mineralised zone.

Meanwhile, c.12km to the south-southwest at APTA, after initially being hindered by several zones of difficult and broken ground, hole MAP-106 is now well past 300m and within the target area. This is important given that its original program was designed to assess several new geological concepts to assist in planning a larger drill campaign that may, if successful, allow APTA to move to resource status. Given that new drill pads are presently being developed in different locations to ensure there is no repeat of such issues, delivery of required core samples, etc. should be more predictable going forward.

This should, along with other works already underway, permit definition of a NI 43-101 Mineral Resource Estimate (‘MRE’) in the coming months. Anzá thus appears set to inexorably grow in scope, scale and complexity as its full potential gradually becomes realised."

"Given the exceptional value it has created to date, investors can be expected to remain supportive of the Board’s much larger mining ambitions for both Anzá and El Pantano (in Argentina), either of which could eventually dwarf findings at Pepas."

FYI from today's Telegraph about Buchan - subscriber-only:

Https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/05/12/labour-blamed-for-delaying-100-million-barrel-north-sea-oil/

"Labour blamed for delaying 100-million-barrel North Sea oil project

Energy company urges ministers to bring forward date of new tax system

Labour has been accused of holding back development of one of Britain’s best remaining North Sea oil fields….."

It's summarised here:

Https://www.bez-kabli.pl/labour-delay-puts-100-million-barrel-north-sea-oil-prize-back-in-focus/

Great article Martin, many thanks.

If Pulsiv can replicate what's happened at 2D Photonics that would be fantastic. I can't imagine Neil would hint at this without there being some potential for this happening.

The interview linked below from yesterday with the new CFO is very encouraging in that

"several of Frontier IP’s 17 or 18 portfolio companies are now “gaining traction” and moving toward potential exit events":

Yep, strong results and confidence in at least meeting full year expectations.

Particularly given the record order books again up nicely. And the healthy cash pile which will enable more acquisitions even after the two recent ones.

Reading through the narrative, the potential growth and range of opportunities is large and easy to see. The co-operation between group companies is terrific and is enabling larger and more diverse contract wins.

Featured in the IC, with comments from the CEO - subscriber-only unfortunately, so if anyone has access.....

Https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/content/5088b7e2-8b6b-4112-958c-4f3e6ae0e66e

"Renew Holdings bullish despite economic uncertainty

The contractor expects to make more bolt-on acquisitions

Renew Holdings bullish despite economic uncertainty

Published on May 12, 2026

Dividend up 5 per cent

Full-year guidance maintained

etc"

More excellent news today.

Greenwood Capital this morning "retain our near-term target price of 35p/sh and see multiple re-rating catalysts as the discovery story is only just getting started".

They summarise (extracts):

"The latest drilling at Pepas West continues to expand this newly discovered zone of mineralisation around 100m outside the Pepas Mineral Resource area at Orosur’s 100%-owned Anzá project in Colombia. Intersections demonstrate thick intervals of shallow gold mineralisation including 23.45m at 2.98g/t Au from 17.95m from the most north-westerly hole, which was located a further 30m NW of previous holes."

"These results are highly encouraging in our view, especially the 23.45m at 2.98g/t Au intersection in PEP090, located a further 30m to the NW of previous holes. Mineralisation remains open to the NW of this hole and will be a clear area for follow up. Many questions remain to be answered but the fundamental one of “are there more gold ounces outside Pepas?” appears to have been answered with a resounding “yes”."

"El Cedro getting closer to drilling.....We can’t wait for drilling to commence at El Cedro as getting >1g/t Au in soil Geochem assays is very rare indeed."

"As Pepas moves into feasibility and permitting, the exploration front remains as exciting as ever with the prospect of 3 rigs turning at 3 prospects soon. We retain our near-term target price of 35p/sh and see multiple re-rating catalysts as the discovery story is only just getting started."

Funny you should talk about target prices rooney68.....TPX has been tipped by the chartist Zak Mir with a 74p target by the end of next month.

That 74p would be nice, but even 74p would only be a P/E of 12.1. As I posted before, TPX has traded at 250p-300p previously and there's been very little dilution since then:

Https://www.share-talk.com/traders-cafe-with-zak-mir-bulletin-board-heroes-thursday-7th-may-2026/

"TPXimpact: A clean U-shaped turnaround: TPXimpact is showing a very tidy U-shaped recovery above a gap, which is often one of the better-looking reversal structures. The minimum target here is the top of the rising trend channel at 53p in the coming days. Best case by the end of next month is a move up to 74p, particularly while the stock remains above recent support at 40p."

Looking good now and breaking upwards chart-wise.

With 5p historic EPS to March just gone and 6.1p EPS forecast for the current year after the recent upgrades TPX still looks extremely undervalued imho.

Looks like Regent Gas have been building a stake, since they now own 3.43%:

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/volvere-VLE/share-news/Volvere-PLC-Holdings-in-Company/98469653

whilst Crucinle Clarity have been selling a few and are down to 5.64%:

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/volvere-VLE/share-news/Volvere-PLC-Holdings-in-Company/98469648h

I've come across Regent Gas a few times before. They're real bargain hunters, and they tend to steadily build a stake over time, sometimes going right up to 29% before launching a bid.

Doubtful that will happen here! But hopefully they'll continue to build their stake as they've done elsewhere to a much larger level, as even their current £2m stake is fairly small beer for them.

Up 3p now on a decent 350,000 shares traded so far today. Hopefully much more to come.

Bendipa, I think it's just the specific Sh.re Pr.phets web site that can't be linked - I haven't had any problems with other web links.

I'm glad to see in today's RNS that new director share options are not nil-cost, but are only exercisable at various prices ranging from 20p down to the current share price and 5.74p (the share price at the time of joining).

Steve Lockard's options are more generous, but reflect his presence since 2023 and are partly dependent on the share price being 20p or above.

New 18-month highs now and up 11% today.

Interesting to note that only in 2021 this was trading at 250p-300p. I wasn't following it then, but there were only 88m shares in issue in late 2021 so there's hardly been any dilution since then.

120k of buys this morning, all in small-ish amounts. Can't see any formal tip online at present.

And now we have a 10k buy at 45p - 1p above the 44p published offer price. Which normally signifies a scarcity of stock and augurs well for more.

Cavendish's latest note from 30th April summarises as follows (extracts):

"Strong H1 with growing order book"

" Positive H1-26 with a return to PBT and no debt: Revenue rose sharply to £1,321k (H1-25: £350k, 3.8x). Gross margin eased to 51% (H1-25: 59%) due to product mix; however, the stronger sales performance drove absolute gross profit up to £679k from £205k (3.3x). Slightly lower opex of £608k (H1-25: £630k) reflected the continued benefits of cost-control measures introduced in FY25.

A return to more normalised sales levels, combined with disciplined cost management, resulted in PBT of £75k (H1-25: £422k loss). At the period end, the Group had no debt and a higher cash balance of £955k (H1-25: £512k)."

"Encouragingly, the order book excluding the NPA contract has strengthened and now reflects a growing pipeline across the security and defence markets, with increasing traction for higher-specification solutions within the ThreatScan AS range: ThreatScan-AS2.

The Group ended H1-26 with the order book up 44% to £1,265k (H1-25: £879k, excluding the NPA contract).

Outlook cautiously positive, with an expectation of improved performance versus FY25:

The Group has entered H2-26 in a stronger position than at the same point last year, supported by improved trading momentum, a solid order book and a developing opportunity pipeline across multiple geographies. Image Scan says it remains “encouraged” by increasing engagement in higher-value tenders, ongoing partner-led demonstrations and the continued strengthening of the Group’s product offering. While macro uncertainty means the full-year outcome remains dependent on the timing and delivery of H2-26 orders, the Board believes the foundations established in H1-26 provide a credible basis for a significantly improved full-year result compared with FY25.

We conclude that Image Scan is trading well, having generated over 70% of FY25 gross profit in H1-26 alone, and we expect to reintroduce progressive forecasts in due course."

The valuation here is getting silly, particularly given management's excellent track record.

At 42.25p the P/E for the year ending this month is 6.0, falling to 5.5 based on 7.7p EPS.

Plus TIME also have a forecast £7m net cash (8p per share), rising to £10m next May.

Cavendish had this to say after the March Q3 trading update:

"3Q26 trading update – Credit quality improves further

Time Finance has delivered another robust trading update for the nine months to February 2026, continuing its consistent track record of disciplined growth with a nineteenth consecutive quarter of loan book expansion and further evidence of improving credit quality. Own-book lending origination increased 27% YoY to £86.5m (3Q25: £69.3m), driving the gross lending book to a new record of £236.4m (3Q25: £210.2m), up 12% YoY. Origination growth notably exceeding loan book growth can be attributed to the signing of Invoice Finance deals whereby the full facility size features immediately in originations, but the amount drawn can contribute to the lending book size gradually over time.

The strategic shift towards secured lending continues to gain traction, with Invoice Finance and Hard Asset Finance now representing 96% of new originations and 88% of the total book, rapidly closing in on the 3-year plan target of over 90% of the loan book. Revenue rose 4% YoY to £28.3m (3Q25: £27.3m), with PBT rising 5% YoY to £6.2m and margins improving 1pp to 22%, reflecting the benefits of scale. Importantly, asset quality continues to strengthen, with arrears reducing to 4.7% (3Q25: 5.3%) and write-offs improving to 1.0% (3Q25: 1.3%).

Overall, Time is executing well against its strategy and continues to demonstrate its ability to grow agnostically to the economic environment as it helps businesses to both thrive and survive. Trading on a FY27E basic P/E of just 5.9x and 0.7x tangible NAV, the shares continue to offer material re-rating potential as Time targets lending book growth to over £300m, higher PBT margins, and mid-teen returns on equity by the end of the next three-year plan in 2028."

Cavendish retain their Buy and 90p target price.

They forecast 4.5p EPS to this June, rising to 5.8p EPS to June '27.

They continue to forecast a £7m cash pile as at this 30th June, against the current £10.5m m/cap:

"Contract win supports FY26E expectations

Shearwater has announced a £1.8m contract to supply a hardware platform for a major UK telecom provider along with service engineering to be delivered by Shearwater’s Brookcourt Solutions subsidiary. The contract will be delivered in the current financial year and supports our FY26E forecasts, which are unchanged. Following recent selling pressure in the sector the shares are trading on a P/E of 8.4x FY26E and 6.4x FY27E. We believe that this represents an attractive entry point, and we maintain our target price of 90.0p.

— Contract: The contract encompasses design, supply, and implementation of the hardware platform together with service engineering and support services to be delivered via Brookcourt. The platform will enhance the customer’s ability to monitor its critical network performance and operational data. The customer is a leading tier-one UK telecom operator and has a long-standing relationship with Shearwater.

— Investment summary: Shearwater is a company with a unique and differentiated set of capabilities in critical cyber-security applications, and a global blue-chip customer base. Driven by an increasingly complex threat environment and growing regulatory requirements, demand for cyber security remains highly robust. Differentiation lies in specialism across highly demanding critical infrastructure organisations such as global telecoms, financial institutions, and UK government departments. The company has specialisms in advanced technologies such as forensic network monitoring and quantum-based technologies.

The balance sheet remains strong: we are forecasting FY26E net cash of £7.0m. Given the strong market position and financial position, we argue that a P/E of 6.4x FY27E looks very undemanding and we maintain our target price of 90.0p, which represents 140% upside."

For the record, here's extracts from Cavendish's most recent summary from last week following the additional contract wins:

"Further new orders boost FY26 EPS forecast by 14.8%

Hardide has announced a further contract win worth £1.8m, following on from the recent spate of orders from the same North American energy sector customer. Since its AGM in March, the company has also seen an increase in certain input costs, estimated to cost £0.7m in 2H26. Management is implementing mitigating actions including customer price surcharges and internal efficiencies and, as a result, indicates it expects revenue and profit to be materially ahead of existing expectations.

We therefore increase our FY26 revenue forecast by £2.1m to £12.4m and adj PBT forecast by £0.6m to £2.9m, with a 14.8% increase in EPS to 3.4p. We raise our target price from 45p to 52p in line with the EPS upgrade, indicating a target P/E of 15.1x. This further significant increase in prospects bodes well for ongoing momentum into FY27, with plenty of upside scope to the shares on the back of this further order."

"— Forecasts: As a result of these additional orders and actions taken to manage recent input cost increases, management expects FY26 revenues and performance to be materially ahead of previous expectations. As such we increase our FY26 revenue forecast by £2.1m to £12.4m, with adj PBT rising by £0.6m to £2.9m, with adj dil EPS up 14.8% to 3.4p, due to the inclusion of executive share options. This also results in year-end net cash increasing by £0.45m to £3.0m.

— Valuation: The shares have been strong outperformers over the past year on the back of progressive order announcements and the move into sustained profitability and increasing financial health. They remain at compelling value trading on a current P/E of 10.2x. We raise our target price from 45p to 52p, an increase in line with the EPS increase, placing them on a target P/E of 15.1x.

We see strong upside potential with further order momentum anticipated. The repeated orders from the US energy sector customer provides a growing bedrock of potential business for FY27."

Terrific news today - and a multi-year partnership with the mighty Omnicom means lovely recurring and secure income going forward.

I wonder if this will lead to further work with Omnicom for BBSN in other areas of their business?

This certainly helps nicely with the forecast of 8.1p EPS this year.

Which leaves BBSN on a miserly P/E of 9.4, even before stripping out the £10m stake in SYS1:

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/brave-bison-BBSN/share-news/Brave-Bison-Group-PLC-Major-Contract-Win/98450695

The new issue of SCSW is now out, so FYI it should be OK to report what SCSW commented about BBSN in their last issue:

Https://www.scsw.co.uk/issues/april-2026/brave-bison-takes-28-stake-in-system1/

"Brave Bison - Takes 28% stake in System1

April 2026

Epic Code: BBSN Price: 75p

Bison has taken a strategic 28% stake in System1 (SYS1; 272p), a specialist in the somewhat niche but increasingly valuable field of marketing effectiveness measurement. The stake has been assembled through a mixture of paper and cash. The bulk came via a share-for-share exchange with System1’s founder and largest shareholder, John Kearon, who rolled his entire 2.92m shareholding into Bison stock. In return, Kearon received 9.81m Bison shares at 74p (subject to an 18 month lockup), leaving him with an 8.7% stake. To top things up, Bison then purchased an additional 5% stake on-market for £1.3m or 210p per share. Taken together, the blended entry price works out at 242p per System1 share or 5.2x expected EBITDA for FY26. This is not an obviously demanding multiple for a data-heavy marketing analytics business.

In simple terms, the company’s platform allows brands to test advertising creative, product concepts and broader brand communications before committing large budgets. Its core products include Test Your Ad, which predicts the likely long-term effectiveness of advertising creatives, Test Your Innovation, which assesses new product ideas, and Test Your Brand, which measures brand perception.

Where System1 differentiates itself is through its use of behavioural science and emotion measurement. Rather than relying purely on surveys or stated consumer preferences, the platform measures emotional reactions to marketing content. Over time the company has built up a vast proprietary dataset - covering well over 100,000 adverts and millions of emotional responses - which is then used to predict short-term sales impact and long-term brand growth.

From an accounting perspective, the stake will be treated as an associate investment, meaning Brave Bison will recognise its share of System1’s earnings through equity accounting. Management expects the investment to add roughly 5% to Brave Bison’s pretax profit.

The logic stacks up; keep buying.

* The writer has a holding"

It's worth keeping an eye on HDD's blog page on their web site - it's very active and has a new article every week or two about the uses of and processes for HDD's solutions, with four in just the last month:

Https://blog.hardide.com/

As IOF approaches £100m m/cap it's now become more attractive to additional institutional investors too.